Bet or check this river?

[crunchy1]

This is nitpicky but, I think correct - please correct me if I'm wrong.

Hero has not put 50% of the money into the pot so far - this is my reasoning why the bet does not need to work exactly >= 50% of the time. This also doesn't take into account the times Villian folds a better hand, the times Hero folds to a c/r, etc... It's probably close - but I don't quite think it's exactly 50%.

[Grease]

I'm betting here than this opponent will fold no pair if he/she had said pair by the turn (which must be the case).

Opponent here calls with any pair and hero loses the majority of the time if called.

My prediction.

[DBowling]

[ QUOTE ]
This is nitpicky but, I think correct - please correct me if I'm wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are wrong.

if it is less than 50%, the bet has negative expectation, so you should not make it. end of story. it has nothing to do with the rest of the pot. (continuing with 45/55%) Run it 100 times and you will lose 5 big bets. Why would you want to do this? It is unreasonable to think he might fold a better hand but will also call with a worse hand.

It must be greater than 50% for you to bet.

[TiltsMcFabulous]

Nobody thinks that value + fold equity makes this bet correct?

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody thinks that value + fold equity makes this bet correct?

[/ QUOTE ]
By even making this statement I think you're vastly overestimating both of these values.

[DBowling]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody thinks that value + fold equity makes this bet correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

again, it is unreasonable to think that he will fold a better hand but call with a worse hand. You think he will fold 22 but call with a worse A-high? It doesnt work like that.

[SippinSoma]

That's incorrect. On the river, hero risks 1 BB to win 6.5 BB. If his opponent folds 50% of the time, Hero's EV != 0. His EV = (.5)(-1) + (.5)(6.5) = +2.75 BBs. This is of course, if hero's bet works 50% of the time (entirely read dependent). Also, there will be times that the Villain calls the bet and Hero is best anyway (Yes, A-high does call down). Granted, this does not make the hand +EV as a whole, but you're approaching the river decision in the wrong way.

[W. Deranged]

My inclination is to think that value = $0 and fold equity is like about $ (Pot size)*5% which adds up to well under a big bet.

In general, I don't think the value + fold equity calculation applies all that often in heads-up pots on the river. Unless you are playing against an opponent who is: (a) inconsistent; (b) unstable; (c) a total "super-reader" to use the TOP term, I think most players will fall into reasonable parameters of either calling down too much (in which case the bet would be for value) or folding too much (in which case the bet would be for bluff equity).

Hence, if you have a decent read, it should be clear what kind of bet you are making.

For the bluff+value concept to apply in a heads-up pot on the river, you need to have some thought that your opponent will zig when he should zag and vice versa. If, like most, he tends to either zag too much or zig too much, determine which and play accordingly.

As to the hand in question I agree with the concensus that a check is correct.

Where I do think this reasoning applies is in multi-way pots with medium range hands, where a bet or a raise is likely to get action from a loose player at the same time as folding a tight player. But it is the presence of two players with two different sets of tendencies that brings both bluff equity and value into the equation.

[SippinSoma]

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody thinks that value + fold equity makes this bet correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Look. Next time, take notes. If you see this player call down with ace high, take a note. If he calls down with any part of the board or a pocket pair, take note. If he gets to the river and folds for 1 BB, take note. Record the frequencies.

Then you can answer this question yourself.

[DBowling]

[ QUOTE ]
That's incorrect. On the river, hero risks 1 BB to win 6.5 BB. If his opponent folds 50% of the time, Hero's EV != 0. His EV = (.5)(-1) + (.5)(6.5) = +2.75 BBs. This is of course, if hero's bet works 50% of the time (entirely read dependent). Also, there will be times that the Villain calls the bet and Hero is best anyway (Yes, A-high does call down). Granted, this does not make the hand +EV as a whole, but you're approaching the river decision in the wrong way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Youre taking the fold a better hand route and im taking the value bet route. I dont think villian will fold a worse hand here if he hasnt folded already. And again, you mention him folding a better hand and calling with a worse hand right next to eachother. Am I the only one that thinks this is incorrect?