Help calculating expected earn

DOTTT · #1 08-22-2005, 10:10 PM

Suppose you have a $10,000 bankroll and will be flat betting 5% on each game or $500. You long term win rate is at 56% how much do you expect to make a year if you think you can find 250 games to play? If someone can show me the math I'd really appreciate it.

Thanks.

MasterShakes · #2 08-22-2005, 10:15 PM

$9,500 and I did the math in my head. I'm awesome. Don't bet more than 2% of your bankroll on any one game though.

DOTTT · #3 08-22-2005, 10:35 PM

Sorry didn't really post what I wanted to ask. What I really want to know is supoose you know your long term win rate is a 56% and you start of with $10000 and flat bet 5% how can you calculate your total win amount after 250 games if you will increase your bet size to adjust to your wins and losses after those 250 games. I'm not sure this can even be answered, can it?

jmillerdls · #4 08-23-2005, 01:16 AM

Yes, it is very easy to figure out. Unless you have a tremendous streak of luck right from the get-go, you will have an extremely high chance of going broke with such an enormous percentage flat bet.
Next, you shouldn't be increasing your bets after a standard number of plays, but instead after your bankroll has increased a certain percentage (i.e. when you have 15k, having increased 50%).

Mr_J · #5 08-23-2005, 02:16 AM

"Don't bet more than 2% of your bankroll on any one game though."

Unless you understand and respect the maths [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Mr_J · #6 08-23-2005, 02:20 AM

Guys, if he was certain he will go 56% longterm and can doesn't have many simultaneous wagers, then 5% is fine. OP, what makes you think your bets will be 56% longterm?

BTW I'm not saying he should bet 5%, just that if he IS a 56% bettor then it'd be fine. This is assuming he resizes very reguarly, and doesn't just bet $500 a game.

raccon · #7 08-23-2005, 02:36 PM

It's $8,630, assuming that you're making bets with odds -110 and that you flat bet with $500.

Here's how it goes:

You bet 250 times $500, total $125,000.
You win 140 times out of 250 (140/250 = 0.56).
Your winnings are 140*1.909*$500=$133,630
(-110 is 1.909 in decimal format)

Your net profit is $133,630-$125,00=$8,630.

I would recommend smaller bet size though since 20 bet losing streaks DO happen. 2-3% would be MUCH better. Cheers.

DOTTT · #8 08-23-2005, 08:17 PM

Thanks, but again this is not what I'm asking. I'm really intrested in knowing how much I will make if my win rate stands at 56% and if I will increase the amount I bet as my bankroll grows over 250 games.

DOTTT · #9 08-23-2005, 08:34 PM

Well the thing is I've been working on a football system for the past 4 months. I've backtested it over the past 6 seasons and it has a win rate of 56.7% over that span. However, if I take the past 10 seasons then it only shows a win rate of 52.8%. With the biggest lossing year at 46% and longest losing streak at 11 games , so I feel comftable enough to bet 5% of my bankroll on every game.

whipsaw · #10 08-23-2005, 10:33 PM

Adjusting your bet size in between each bet, I put your final bankroll at 23667.14. The math isn't easily explained, I had to do it in excel. Also, my calculations are based on expected return with each wager, not based on whether you actually won or lost the wager, which would more wildly vary your bet size, and thus your final bankroll. If you PM me I can email you the excel file.