making the NL adjustment 1: implied odds

Rev. Good Will · #1 08-10-2005, 05:39 PM

Hand #1

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) converter

Villian(pt stats 59/14/1.26 for ~45 or so hands) here is very loose, playing a little above half his hand regaurdless of position, and has been very aggressive, his main source of income seems to be picking up pots when checked to in LP

Hero ($7.80)
UTG ($19.99)
UTG+1 ($9.20)
MP1 ($7.22)
MP2 ($3.11)
CO ($2.50)
Button ($3.30)
SB ($9.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.05.
UTG calls $0.10, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, 1 fold, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets $0.25, MP2 folds, CO calls $0.25, SB folds, Hero calls $0.25...

I gave myself 5 outs here, so I would need 1:8.4 pot odds to make this a profitable call on the turn. being that I am only offered 1:4 in the spot I was, I would need to make more than $1.1 on the turn and river to make this a profitable call? (this is all assuming I make the hand on the turn, if I was UI, I would fold)

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Hand #2
Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) converter

MP1 ($3.55)
MP2 ($7.45)
CO ($10.00)
Button ($30.25)
SB ($11.85)
Hero ($9.90)
UTG ($18.58)
UTG+1 ($6.17)

no reads on villian here unfortunately, my first orbit at the table [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.05.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP1 calls $0.10, 3 folds, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.40) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets $0.5, Hero...?

same thing here, I gave myself 7 outs here(1:5.7 to improve), being I was offered 1:1.8 (not including if there were other callers), I would need to make $1.95 (5.70-1.8= 3.9 units to make up for calling here, units are $.50, so that makes it $1.95 to make up) on the turn/river in order for this to be profitable?

also, is my math/mindset out of line?

LethalRose · #2 08-10-2005, 05:57 PM

If you're going to use implied odds to draw make it a draw to the nuts.

you really think the ace of diamonds is a clean out in the second hand?

kurto · #3 08-10-2005, 06:03 PM

Why would you want to play any of these hands? These are bad gambles. Also, the villain doesn't matter much, you have other players in the hands.

Hand 1:
You're calling with middle pair on a board with no real draws for you. There's a made straight and or straight draw on the board. This is junk.

Hand 2:
You're calling a pot sized bet where the best hand you're likely to make is a straight when you can be outdrawn by a fullhouse or a flush. Furthermore, any bet you call can be raised afterwards. You're out of position and may end up having to toss your bet for nothing if someone puts in a real raise.

In limit, when you may never have to call more then 1 bet, these draws may be doable. But in no limit, if players are decent at all, the bets are going to escalate pricing you out of draws.

For both of these hands, you're drawing slim to hands that may ALREADY be 2nd best.

Fold. Let the loose guy battle for these pots. Put your money in on hands where you know he'll be putting his money in behind OR where you can draw cheaply to a hand that isn't likely 2nd best.

If you're going to make draws, you do it in late position when you can see how everyone acted.

djoyce003 · #4 08-10-2005, 06:04 PM

it's questionable in both only because you stand the chance to be drawing completely dead in each example. Also, you are out of position in both which makes it harder to make money on both of these hands if you do it.

In hand 1 you could be losing to a straight, and in hand 2, you could be behind to a full house..or trip 3's and your only outs might be the 3's that don't make a flush in the case you are only up against trips. Also if a 2 falls, you could make the bad end of a straight.

Generally I don't like drawing at implied odds unless i'm drawing to a hand i'm pretty sure is the nuts....it doesn't have to be the literal nuts, but as long as it's a hand i'm comfortable backing with my stack in that situation, it's ok. In both of these situations, you can hit the hand you are dreaming of, and still not be totally sure how to play it.

Example - Hand 1, you hit your 5....you've got trips now...arguably the best card you could hope to see. You go for the checkraise, late position better bets, you checkraise big, they push...now what....you've got trips and a marginal kicker...you could be drawing totally dead to an overfull, or drawing to a few outs against a made straight with 1 to come. Same thing could happen in hand 2, if you caught your straight and got raised, what are you thinking...i'm still not happy with my straight at that point. I'll take a card off in some of these instances with a nutflush or nut-straight draw...but in both of these you can't feel real good about your hand even if it hits.