Unusual AKo hand, 30-60

[Cancuk]

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Hi Josh,

I'd be much obliged if you would explain why you mucked on the river?

thanks,
WT

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Sorry for the hijack...awesome avatar.

[Josh W]

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This is the best/2nd best card in the deck that could have came off for you...

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This is sorta true.

It's true that preflop (or even on the flop), I'd say "heck, the ace of purple horseshoes would sure be a splendid card right about now". No doubt.

However, by the time the river bet came around to me, three (not one or two, but THREE) opponents liked their chances of winning with that ace out there.

In fact, this could be THE WORST card in the deck for me. It's kinda like when you have QJh on a QJT9 (with the T9 of hearts) board. The betting is capped threeways on the flop and turn. The river is a king. THere's a bet and a call to you. Do you call or muck? Well, with a huge pot, you quite often call, right?

You get shown AK, and lose an extra bet. The King on the river made you call. It was a bad card for you, it cost you a bet. If it had been the 2c, it would have been a much better card for you.

Three people (besides me) thought that they could win with that ace out there. This means that three people (including me) thought that they could win with that ace out there.

Josh

[Philuva]

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I tried putting them on hands, and I ran out of aces.

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So UTG has a set or middle two pair and decided to try and CR the turn even through no one showed they liked that flop?

I have a hard time putting UTG on a hand to be honest, but I don't think it really matters because you are ahead of the other two guys enough here given their passiveness throughout the hand. Plus, given the utg's check on the turn I think you have an easy call in a large pot with TPTK.

[SA125]

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UTG (38/14) limps.......Flop comes 962, two hearts.....I lead out. UTG raises..
Turn is an offsuit ten. I check, and it gets checked around. Weird. Maybe UTG has hearts, and I'm really ahead here.

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I was trying to do the hands and could only come with 78s for UTG. I could see him playing it the same way and going for turn c/r. Maybe I'm wrong, but 38/14's do things like that.

[Duke]

You didn't run out of tens and pairs in a huge pot from guys thinking that seeing a showdown is basically mandatory.

The problem is that you were going to call UTG, and then 2 guys basically tell you that you have them beat and add money to the pot, and then all of a sudden UTG has a better hand than he did. No, the callers don't need aces when the pot is this big. There's nothing to run out of. And I've seen guys bet 6 high into a field of 5 when an ace hit since it -is- a "scare card."

~D

[glen]

The dude plays 38% of his hands. You have to relax logical hand-reading against people who play 38% of their hands. Call the river. . .

[andyfox]

"then all of a sudden UTG has a better hand than he did."

I don't think this is so unusual. An ace comes, a guy bets, we figure the ace hit him. But now several other guys, who figure to have aces, call. If it's me, that decreases the possibility that the original bettor had an ace from what I figured were his chances of so having when he bet out. And since it's likely the others have aces, and it's likely he knows this, it's likelier that he can beat an ace.

Not saying it justifies folding, just saying changing the thinking about what the bettor might have in light of the two calls makes sense.

[Josh W]

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You didn't run out of tens and pairs in a huge pot from guys thinking that seeing a showdown is basically mandatory.

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True, but neither HJ nor button have those (they'd bet the turn), and they aren't calling with no pair on the river. So, that leads me to the same "what does UTG have?" question.


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The problem is that you were going to call UTG, and then 2 guys basically tell you that you have them beat and add money to the pot, and then all of a sudden UTG has a better hand than he did.

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True, when the river came, I would have called utg. But before I had the chance, I had new information presented to me. Namely, the other two both had aces. UTG still thought he could win the hand. UTG could beat an ace. I chose to use this new information, information I didn't have when I planned on calling UTG.

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No, the callers don't need aces when the pot is this big.

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In general, this is absolutely true. In this case, because they obviously don't have a pair on the turn, they DO need an ace to call the river.

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There's nothing to run out of. And I've seen guys bet 6 high into a field of 5 when an ace hit since it -is- a "scare card."

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Like I said, maybe UTG is bluffing here a naked bluff. But I think that it's probably less than 1 outta 20 times. And, I need to be ahead 1 outta 10 times to justify a call. River bets at 30/60 into fields of 4 are stone cold bluffs less than 1 outta 10 times. I don't think ANYBODY here denies that.

Josh

[bpb]

UTG is a 38/14 who limped preflop, then called two cold back to him. I'm going to assume he isn't the greatest player at the table.

As such, I can put him on hands like JTh, QTh, KTh, 98h, 97h, etc. He flopped a pair plus flush draw or two overs plus a flush draw, and therefore raised the flop. When his flush doesn't come, he checks the turn. Or maybe he pairs the T in addition to his flush draw and decides to check-raise. Then he refuses to acknowledge the A and bluff/value bets his weaker pair/ busted flush draw on the river.

Just because you (or any sane player) would never lead an ace high river in this situation with less than a pair of aces in your hand doesn't mean that UTG didn't.

Even given the likelyhood that you're splitting with one of your other opponents, you're getting a good 8:1 or so from the pot. I still maintain that UTG shows up with a stupid bluff or pair plus busted flush draw more than 1/9 times.

[Josh W]

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"then all of a sudden UTG has a better hand than he did."

I don't think this is so unusual. An ace comes, a guy bets, we figure the ace hit him. But now several other guys, who figure to have aces, call. If it's me, that decreases the possibility that the original bettor had an ace from what I figured were his chances of so having when he bet out. And since it's likely the others have aces, and it's likely he knows this, it's likelier that he can beat an ace.

Not saying it justifies folding, just saying changing the thinking about what the bettor might have in light of the two calls makes sense.

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Andy, I love you. No, not in that way.

See, you don't play online (I don't think). You rely on getting information the old fashioned way...throughout the hand. Too many people on here (and I'm not singling out anybody, least of all Duke), gather all their information before the hand, in the neat little VPIP and PFR numbers. They see those numbers, then act accordingly.

There are no stats that I've seen that take into account post flop play. The information you can gather via postflop play is soooo valuable, and people just aren't used to using that information anymore.

Josh