How low would you go...

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
no no, this is different han the sirio hand.

he had everything to lose, and nothing to gain, becacuse it was a satelite 12th paid as much as 1st, so theres no reason to go from say 10th chip stack to the leading chip stack when theres 13 left.

In this situation though where 1st is substantially more than 2nd, it helps us a lot to double up here. Still we're not going to want to get knocked out right now a big % of the time. So i'll be conservative still, and say he's only pushing the top 50% of hands. ANd i'll arbitrarily decide that i want to still be around 70% of the time, so that would be JJ+ .. and that's it.

if he's pushing more than 50%, or if you dont need quite 70% equity for it to be good, then add in 99+ AJs+ AQo+

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Ansky's range pretty much. Maybe even ATs b/c I'm a sucker for that hand.

This isn't like the sirio situation for the reasons given, but also no one's really explicitly considered the fact that you need a stack to take on the big stack with. Everyone's implying that more chips=good, but what this really means is you have to put yourself in a position to WIN. Namely, imagine if the situation were that you had 500k and the shorty had 150k and the biggie had 10M. You can't pass up a chance to make yourself a stack to take on the big stack, otherwise you're basically conceeding winning an extra $250k for having no chance at first. You might go totally card dead the rest of the tourney. Take your shot now when you get it.

In my opinion, chips have increasing value here, as it gives you more than just a proportionate chance at taking a shot at the leader for every chip you get. You need wiggle room. Shorty could also magically suck out with 72o against Aces when he's forced to go all in, and you get fuzunked.

Always remember you're playing for first.

[Saborion]

[ QUOTE ]
Always remember you're playing for first.

[/ QUOTE ]
First, sure. But you can avoid some situations on your way there. I would've called with TT in an instant if I had just a slightly lower stack myself. I would've folded a lot of hands if my stack would've been a bit bigger. I think 1M in this specific situation made things a bit tougher. If the shorty doubles or tripples up on the next hand, things aren't too cool anymore.

at this point i wouldnt be playing for first.. there is a huge dioff from 3rd to 2nd in pay. i owuld fold anything short of QQ b/c variance is a b**ch and u are in great shape for 2nd

[Lloyd]

That was referring to a satellite tournament where he could fold into the money. Very different here. And very dangerous to apply the same principles.

I know it isn't the same situation. And normally I wouldn't apply this principle, but the Button is being swallowed by the blinds in the next 2 rounds. If his stack was 2BB then I would definately not fold AA, but now he has to push in the SB otherwise a double up in the BB won't matter that much to his stack.

Ofcourse it's +EV to call with AA, but I rather play HU with a 5-to-1 chipdeficit then finish 3rd and donate an extra 250k to the shortstack. I know Christmas is coming, but this is insane!

If he has any skill at all to situations like this and knows about the pressure he's gonna move with almost any hand in my opinion since he knows the button will be AI. He is guarenteed 2nd place no matter what happens. I'd make his range really loose and would play it as if I wanted to win the tournament. A8+,88+. I think common hands for him to push are suited connectors, any ace, any pair, and if he knows this kinda situation basically any two. With that calling range my ace will be dominating him over half the time if he has an ace any my pairs will be overpairs to him over half the time or a 55/45 favorite most of the time. Hands like KQ and KJ are probably appropriate against a large range, however, I don't want to get my money in as a dog to any ace.

[Lloyd]

x=% of time you call and win

Total chips = 6,150,000
Total prize money playing for = $1M ($250k already wrapped up for each)

Fold = 825k
825k/6150k = 13.4% * $1M = $134,146

Call and win = 2,015,000
2015000/6150000 = 32.8% * $1M = $327,642

Call and lose = OUT

Value of calling = x($327,642)

$327,642x = 134,146
x=134,146/327,642
x= 40.9%

So theoretically, if you win 40.9% of the time the value of calling equals the value of folding. We obviously need to win more than that for it to be profitable. 50%? 60%? I'd probably lean toward the 50% number.

Put him on a range of 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,A8o+,KTo+ ,QTo+,JTo. That sounds about right based on what you've said. Therefore, you could call with 66+, A9s+, KQs+, ATo+ and have greater than 50% equity. If you wanted to be very (perhaps too) conservative and require 60% equity you would need TT+, AQs+, AK. Obviously there's a middle ground there as well. I do think he could be pushing with a huge range of hands here and doubling up gives you a legitimate shot at 1st.

[Exitonly]

That equation is flawed, theres no way that if he folds worth he's that substantially less than 3rd place (250k).

[Lloyd]

Not flawed. Third place money is already locked up and not included. That's why there's only $1M of prize money being played for and not $1.75M. Everyone has locked up $250k.

[adanthar]

Lloyd,

Your equation *is* flawed, because the assumption is that the short stack will bust first. While you can't really count on it, it will happen ~90% of the time (as he'll be forced into at least 3 all ins by pot odds as a random hand) and therefore the hero has 500K locked up, not 250. You can consider it 450K if you'd like, but you still need waaaaay more than 40.9% to call.

BTW, this is from one of the, like, two WPT events I've ever seen on TV and the guy's call was *horrible*.