Suffering a 140BB downswing. Need help

[UncleSalty]

Hang in there man. I've been on a slow 100BB slide at $2/$4 in the last week and was starting to wonder if I'd moved up too soon. (I moved up about 3 weeks ago and started off running really well.) But, I was still noticing tons of mistakes in my opponents play and knew I was making proper decisions, so I couldn't believe that this game was beating me.

Last night I made 90BB on 2 tables in about 3 hours. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Variance is a motha', and it just gets swingier as the stakes increase, so be ready for it. Just part of the game.

[handsome]

Come to my tables. I'm a major donator in the $0.50/1 game. Dropped like 70BB in a span of 20 minutes. Just look for the guy capping hands like 32o.

[benkath1]

Thank you to all of you who took the time to respond to this thread. I'm in the same boat wayne. Just moved up to 1/2 and forgot what it's like to win. down 100bb right off the bat.

Again thanks.

Ben

[k000k]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me know when you hit 410 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

410bb?? Holy sheeit, I've never heard of a downswing so large.. In 260k hands, I think my worst is less than 200bb. If I was down 410bb, I would stop playing, stop thinking 'variance' and start examining hand histories and sessions and try to figure out what I was doing wrong. I'd say 100bb is small enough to call variance, 200bb is getting borderline. 300+, you're probably doing something wrong. According to the risk-of-ruin formula:

variance=SD^2, im using SD=16bb/100 and winrate=3bb/100

exp(-2*(win rate)*(bankroll)/variance)
exp(-2*3*410/256)
exp(-9.61)
6.7055e-5

which is about 1/15000. Are you that lucky?

[handsome]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let me know when you hit 410 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

410bb?? Holy sheeit, I've never heard of a downswing so large..

[/ QUOTE ]

My... what a small world you live in.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let me know when you hit 410 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

410bb?? Holy sheeit, I've never heard of a downswing so large.. In 260k hands, I think my worst is less than 200bb. If I was down 410bb, I would stop playing, stop thinking 'variance' and start examining hand histories and sessions and try to figure out what I was doing wrong. I'd say 100bb is small enough to call variance, 200bb is getting borderline. 300+, you're probably doing something wrong. According to the risk-of-ruin formula:

variance=SD^2, im using SD=16bb/100 and winrate=3bb/100

exp(-2*(win rate)*(bankroll)/variance)
exp(-2*3*410/256)
exp(-9.61)
6.7055e-5

which is about 1/15000. Are you that lucky?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if I'm a 3 BB/100. Actually I'm pretty sure I'm not. Recalculate using 2 BB/100.

I've had a stretch of hands where the 95% confidence interval was 1.31 - 6.96 BB/100, and then a strech where it was -6.3 to 0.27 BB/100.

If you haven't had a 200 BB downswing, variance is a much nastier monster than you think it is.

FWIW I felt pretty good about my game over the 400 BB downswing which is enough for me not to move down.

[ QUOTE ]
I would stop playing, stop thinking 'variance' and start examining hand histories and sessions

[/ QUOTE ]

I NEVER stop working on my game. Run good, run bad. Always work hard.

Krishan

[deception5]

When you are on a downswing it's always a good idea to reread some sections of SSH and to look through your hands and post any you had questions on, etc. But honestly, this is likely just variance (just make sure you aren't tilting too much when you are losing).

Also, given this:
[ QUOTE ]
I know it is a small sample size but I just can't see why I am losing at such a rate. Previous to this I was 5BB/100 over 5500. Again it is a small sample size, but is it possible this is just variance?

[/ QUOTE ]

you could easily have been running well and this is the variance catching up with you. It happens from time to time, just keep playing your best game and the results will take care of themselves.

[McGahee]

If you have the 'roll, I would suggest trying some shorthanded play. I was hesitant at first, but the SH 1/2 players are so much worse than full ring, you'd think they were completely different stakes.

[car ramrod]

In the first hand, I call the turn bet by co. He cold calls twice on the flop, then leads the turn, they smells like 87, for two pair.

anyone agree, disagree.

[benkath1]

That [censored] scares me.

What kind of roll is recommended for 6 max? I want to learn it, but not sure if I'm ready yet.