ATs against a LAG

[JJNJustin]

I wouldnt three-bet an UTG raise pre-flop with ATs. Most times I would just fold. If the game were loose, I would just call. But most times I would fold to an UTG raise. Most times you are in bad shape pre-flop. Even if you have the UTG LAG beat, you could easily run into a better hand behind you in a player with better position on both you and the UTG. I would not make this play pre-flop for those two reasons. Sometimes against a LAG, you will have hands that you feel are better than his raising standards and you will want to 3-bet him, but given your position, it can be risky because you still have many players behind you to act. If your position were better I might take this line, but not if you're in early position yourself.

Raising the turn when you spike your ten is okay, although very aggressive. When he calls your raise, however, you have to be thinking he must have a pair here, and is afraid you are sandbagging trips or a bigger pair.

Betting the river for value is questionable. It's true there is some chance you have him beat, especially if he holds a hand that beat you pre-flop like AK, AQ, AJ. But There are many hands that still beat you, like TT, JJ, QQ, KK, and AA. He will have a hard time calling you with something like AK high on the river and an easy call if his pair beats the high card on the board (in this case the ten). I would expect your river bet to be called by a better hand more frequently than it is called by a worse hand, especially since you raised the turn and were called.
Therefore, I probably would just check it down on the river, unless another ten fell.

Him check raising you on the river tells could mean one of three things. A) He is sandbagging a monster B) he cant beat your hand by just calling or betting (i.e. he is bluffing) C) He now realizes with the third seven falling that it is more likely for you to be holding the Ten and not the case 7 and has decided his hand is good and wants to punish you for making him sweat this hand on the turn.

No matter which case, raising is bad in all three circumstances. You will be raising a better hand who will call your raise and will probably re-raise you, or raising a hand you had beaten (a bluff) that cant call your raise so you wont win anymore money.

Calling is ok, if you think there is good chance his is check-raise bluffing. Since the pot is being contested heads-up there is a greater than usual chance of this occuring. However, given your aggressive stance on the turn, I dont think a player would consider this line because he expects you to call. My guess is that, given all factors in this hand, situation C has arisen. Your opponent holds a pair higher than TT and has realized you are betting the ten and not the case 7. But since you made the original bet, I would not fold to the check-raise because the pot now is very big and hold a hand that could still win often enough for a call to be correct.

I hate folding your hand on the river for the following reasons: the pot is huge, you hold a full house with the top pair on board, your opponent could be check-raise bluffing in desparation, you threw the original bet out to begin with when you could have checked it down. I usually wont make a bet on the river if I cant call a raise unless I'm bluffing. In this case, you are not bluffing. You mistakingly tried to get a value bet in a situation where it is unlikely for an opponent to call you with something worse, and have opened yourself up to either a check-raise value bet or a check-raise bluff, either of which you cant be sure. Three-betting the river I feel, is like last ditch desperation.. You want to beat this guy, you hold a full house, but your instincts are telling you it's not good enough.

I know I'm going to catch hell for saying this, but to me the way you played this hand is typical of beginner's play, although I dont mean that in a derogatory way and please dont be offended by that. From your other posts, you seem to be a much more experienced player than me. However, in this hand, I think you are playing too aggressively against an early position raiser with a marginal hand. You hit your ten and end up trapping yourself in the hand for a lot of bets??? I'm sorry if I'm sounding inflated or lofty. Perhaps I missed something in the OP. Maybe you just have a good read on this guy and want to punish him for bad play.

However, all this being said, I still would have folded this hand most of the time pre-flop in early position, even against a donkey. All the subsequent errors in the hand just compound that initial error.

best of luck
-J

[WillMagic]

I've been sitting here for ten minutes trying to find value in the river three-bet. I can't see it. Is this guy a total donkey? Because the stats don't give me that picture. He's seriously going to check-raise this river and call a three-bet with a nine or a small pair? Significantly more often than he'll have randomly picked up quads, or JJ/QQ?

I really don't see it.

The rest of the hand is fine.

Will

You have to be very sure he caps JJ+ for this to be a good play on the river. He is probably raising A9,K10,Q10s or something. But you only beat a 9.. Seems very thin to me.

[elindauer]

Hi JJNJustin,

Fantastic analysis. Very well thought out. I think the preflop 3-bet is closer than you are giving credit, but your thoughts on the river 3-bet are great. I agree that this is too aggressive.

I'm a little more inclined than you to value bet the T though. The OP's "history of aggression" with the villain may well have the villain calling down here with only ace high, any 9 or a lower pocket pair.

good luck.
eric

[elindauer]

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Against most LAGs this is a WA/WB situation on the last card.

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very funny. Now, could you tell me a player type where, after the river is dealt, you are not way ahead or way behind? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[B Dids]

This seems pretty simply on the river. If he caps JJ+ in this spot (or otherwise slows down to your turn play fearing a 7 or a straight) you call the river.

Preflop seems iffy, but having the button is kinda awesome, so rock on.

[jason_t]

It's nice to finally see people criticizing the play in this hand because I did not like it. I hope we keep talking about preflop and the river. Thank you.

[imported_anacardo]

[ QUOTE ]
It's nice to finally see people criticizing the play in this hand because I did not like it. I hope we keep talking about preflop and the river. Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see little difference between the value of a flat call and a reraise preflop, without further information about the blinds. Merely different plans of attack, enticing a multiway pot vs. isolation. Folding seems not terrible, but certainly not preferable, given your man's raising range.

Flop seems like a gimme.
Turn seems like a gimme.
River is between a bet/call of the raise and a three-bet and call cap. As previously stated, I'd generally prefer keeping the river to two bets, but that's a strongly opponent-dependent decision. What does HE think of YOU? Depending on the kinds of hands you've shown down in the past, does he think there's any chance that you'll fold for one bet on the river here? Is he a mindless brute LAG (doesn't sound like it), or is he at least something of a sophisticated player? "Sophisticated" meaning something as goofy as slowplaying kings or something to this point, in classic LAG fashion. Assuming you decide to isolate preflop rather than cold-call (I haven't got nearly enough information to talk about the latter situation,) I take the same line up until the river, where I prefer a call to a threebet. (If you came looking for a multivariable mathetmatical analysis, you came to the wrong place. Nerds. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img])

[DrewOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Against most LAGs this is a WA/WB situation on the last card.

[/ QUOTE ]

very funny. Now, could you tell me a player type where, after the river is dealt, you are not way ahead or way behind? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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LOL very true, that's what I get for trying to post on little sleep. What I meant was, I am comfortable that we are ahead here, but I would be hesitant to 3-bet. Maniacs do get good hands on occasion.

[Alexthegreat]

There is some bad advice from some people on this thread regarding the river....Hero doesn't beat a worse ten.

I don't see much in 3-betting the river....What is he calling with on the turn that he is check raising on the river??
He must think you are just trying to take the pot away on the turn if he is raising with a 9 or PP, but wouldn't he rather 3-bet the turn and try to end the hand??

Or lead the river so you don't check it down??

Obviously you can answer these questions much better than I can,

but if he is paying attention and doesn't suck bad, (maybe this is a stretch) I just call the river raise