I win, now what?

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise the turn. I'm not sure why you bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

With overcards, a three-flush, and a good three-straight, in a board that is likely to have missed the majority of opponents (note the paired 4s), Q has a fair amount of equity here. In what has become a big pot, betting makes sense in order to clear up possible overcard outs and allow Q to take a free river card a lot of the time, and with 5-6-ish outs here probably on average we have enough equity in a five-way pot so that a bet is not going to be hugely bad in most situations. Even in situations where we get check-raised and the pot ends up heads-up, that often means we are heads-up in position with 9 pure outs, which is really not that bad a spot to be.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise the turn. I'm not sure why you bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

With overcards, a three-flush, and a good three-straight, in a board that is likely to have missed the majority of opponents (note the paired 4s), Q has a fair amount of equity here. In what has become a big pot, betting makes sense in order to clear up possible overcard outs and allow Q to take a free river card a lot of the time, and with 5-6-ish outs here probably on average we have enough equity in a five-way pot so that a bet is not going to be hugely bad in most situations. Even in situations where we get check-raised and the pot ends up heads-up, that often means we are heads-up in position with 9 pure outs, which is really not that bad a spot to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Will,

I'm starting to think you may autobet too many flops. Between this and the JTc flop, especially. I think this is a flop check as there are no outs to be cleaned.

Rob

[einbert]

I agree with entity that this flop is a pretty easy check.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with entity that this flop is a pretty easy check.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with you, Entity, Bobbyi and BrettBrett. I like that. I'm probably going to get something straightened out here.

At any rate, this is post that made me start betting more flops. Granted, there are plenty of differences here, but I think the concepts can apply here. I'll take anyone folding that I can get.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise the turn. I'm not sure why you bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

With overcards, a three-flush, and a good three-straight, in a board that is likely to have missed the majority of opponents (note the paired 4s), Q has a fair amount of equity here. In what has become a big pot, betting makes sense in order to clear up possible overcard outs and allow Q to take a free river card a lot of the time, and with 5-6-ish outs here probably on average we have enough equity in a five-way pot so that a bet is not going to be hugely bad in most situations. Even in situations where we get check-raised and the pot ends up heads-up, that often means we are heads-up in position with 9 pure outs, which is really not that bad a spot to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Will,

I'm starting to think you may autobet too many flops. Between this and the JTc flop, especially. I think this is a flop check as there are no outs to be cleaned.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Rob, Brett, Bobby,

I think you guys are right. I autobet too many flops. I am going to stop doing that.

I think that this might well be a pretty valuable realization for me. Thanks for the assistance.

-Will(y)

[ QUOTE ]
Rob, Brett, Bobby,

I think you guys are right. I autobet too many flops. I am going to stop doing that.

I think that this might well be a pretty valuable realization for me. Thanks for the assistance.

-Will(y)


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a problem of mine as well. I really need to reread these posts so I can grasp this. I think I would have bet this flop, but I can see now that I'd probably be wrong.

[brettbrettr]

Willy-Will,

I really don't think that betting to clean up outs is a good reason to bet on this board. Take a look at it again.

Brett

The preflop play is a GREAT move, so long as it does not cause you to make errors post flop (like betting the flop unimproved into five players).

The flop is ok for your hand. You have three to a straight and a flush as well as two overcards. You have the best hand very rarely; even if no one has paired someone has ace high.

Your hand can be valued at 5-7 outs. Three combined outs for the backdoor straight and flush draws and two to four outs for the overcards (discounted because they are dodgy at best). This is not enough of a hand to bet for value. While you could conceivably buy two outs by making KQ fold on the flop, I find it pretty unlikely that this hand would not peel a bet, as would AJ and AQ. No 10, 4, or small pocket pair will be folding here (unless they are in the hands of a very inexperienced rock), and a player in early position looking to face the field with two with a small pocket pair could easily check raise you. I would take a free card, given the nature of your hand.

Betting has some advantages. You might get a free river card, fold a 6 out hand like 98, and improve your chances of winning this big pot but I find it more likely you will just put in some bets when behind, and lose most of the time.

[Nick C]

Some reasons to raise now:

(1) You may get paid off, which is an improvement over having Villain induce a bluff on the river from your AK after you call the turn (if he would do that).

(2) Some cards (A, K, J) will make it harder to get paid off on the river, if Villain holds a medium pair or a hand like T9s.

(3) Like Smiley points out, raising in this spot combines well with bluff-raises in other hands, if Villain has a tendency to take bet-fold lines.

(4) If Villain has a 5-outer, it's not a tragedy if he folds.


Some reasons to call:

(1) You'd prefer that Villain not fold a two-outer, if he would have paid off a bet unimproved on the river.

(2) Villain may have seen enough river bluff-raises from 2/4 donks that he's more suspicious of a river raise than a turn raise and will be more likely to call.

(3) A call here fits in well with a call with AK or AJ.


I'm sure those lists are not complete. The decision seems close to me. Generally speaking, I think you're better off raising immediately in this spot at 2/4, but Villain doesn't sound like a typical opponent.

The question is whether you would rather take your free card on the flop or on the turn. I think checking or betting are both good options, and I'm not sure how much of a difference they actually make. With a big pot like this, I think you can make some good moves on the turn if you catch a great card. I think a raise on the turn is mandatory, whether you checked or bet.