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Old 08-02-2005, 09:33 AM
binions binions is offline
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Default Do Ed Miller\'s SSHE concepts apply on the flop LO8?

In holdem, Ed advocates raising with draws on the flop with 2 to come in situations where your pot equity is greater than the percentage you are contributing that betting round. Example, ram and jam the flop with the nut flush draw with 3 other players in. You are contributing 25% of the money that round, and have a 35% chance to hit your flush (plus you might win if you hit your ace or runner runner dangler). The theory is you make money on every dollar that goes in the pot under those circumstances.

In LO8, is it ever correct to ram and jam the flop with a draw, based on pot equity with 2 to come + number of players contributing?

Specifically, what is your chance to make your flush with no low and no paired board when the flop is unpaired and gives you a 2 flush with: 1) 1 low card, 2) 2 low cards?

For 0 low cards, that answer is not 35%, but rather 30% since you are much more concerned about boats when the board pairs.

With 3 low cards, I am assuming that answer is 15%, since you will hit your flush without a pair showing 30% of the time, but will only win half the pot.

Given that, I am guessing flush draw your equity is approximately 26% with 1 low card on the flop, and 19% with 2 low cards, since a low is more than twice as likely when 2 low cards flop vs. 1.

Does anyone think along the lines of pot equity when deciding to ram and jam the flop with a draw? Or do these holdem concepts not apply?

Thanks for any help.
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  #2  
Old 08-02-2005, 10:13 AM
sy_or_bust sy_or_bust is offline
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Default Re: Do Ed Miller\'s SSHE concepts apply on the flop LO8?

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone think along the lines of pot equity when deciding to ram and jam the flop with a draw? Or do these holdem concepts not apply?

[/ QUOTE ]
Pot equity definitely applies - note these are poker concepts and not Hold 'Em exclusive. In O/8 the draws come in different varieties (i.e. wrap draws like AQJT on a KQ flop, double flush draws, etc.) that must be valued differently. Since drawing to the nuts is so important, non-nut hands like a Q-high flush draw don't count for much in many situations, which screws with counting outs. And since a low halves the value of high hands, a draw to a low cuts into the equity of your high draws.

Equity is much more complicated in O/8 than HE (unless you're a nut peddler), but perhaps even more important. Certainly good players are jamming the flop and turn all the time when equity is in their favor.
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  #3  
Old 08-02-2005, 01:30 PM
Cooker Cooker is offline
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Default Re: Do Ed Miller\'s SSHE concepts apply on the flop LO8?

I usually only jam the flop on a draw if I have a fairly strong draw both ways or there is no low draw and I have enough players in so that it is correct to jam a nut flush draw. I haven't looked at the numbers, but I doubt it is ever good to jam with a draw for only half the pot. Usually, I am looking for a nut flush draw plus a nut low draw, or a big draw to a wheel (A346 on a board of 25K rainbow is probably worth pushing very hard). Of course a made hand one way and a draw the other is probably worth pushing as well.
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  #4  
Old 08-02-2005, 09:09 PM
binions binions is offline
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Default Re: Do Ed Miller\'s SSHE concepts apply on the flop LO8?

My bad on the pot equity numbers above. Here are the correct numbers:

Nut Flush Draw on Unpaired Board
#Low Flop Turn
0 22.8% 15.9%
1 20% 15.9%
2 13% 10.2%
3 11.4% 8.0%
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