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#51
09-24-2004, 09:34 PM
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Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
[ QUOTE ]
Wait, so you're saying that you shouldn't listen to the "Get broke, go Home" Theory. I admit that I may not know everything about poker, so thank God for people, like David Sklansky, who've forgotten more then most of us know. He mentions it as a chapter in his book. I'm sorry but I just have to believe him on this. [/ QUOTE ] I think you will be well served re-reading sklanskys tourney book in order to fully understand his advice. Sklansky advises most players to call for all their chips on close gambles early on. He advises the better players to avoid these close gambles early on. However, regardless of whether you are one of the better players or not, getting approx 9-1 pot odds on an allin call as a 2-1 dog to win is not a close gamble. So according to sklankys own tourney book, neither type of player should fold. 
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#52
09-24-2004, 11:38 PM
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Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
I would bet that in a large tourney most top players are more than 90% likely to double up before going bust.
I also doubt that most of them do it by going all in. They double up playing conservative poker, blind stealing, etc. I bet they hope to avoid pushing all in until they've doubled up a few times ... Yes, they will. But how often does that really happen in a large MTT?
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#53
09-24-2004, 11:42 PM
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Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
I don't believe you can breeze through an MTT without taking chances. But I do believe that a good player can be expected to double up in a large MTT prior to going bust by playing ultra-conservative the first few rounds.
There's a reason very few of the big names bust out in the first day of the WSOP. If they were all going all-in with 60/40 edges you'd see a lot fewer top pros on day 2 than you do.
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#54
09-24-2004, 11:48 PM
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Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
Maybe someone who was at the WSOP this year can list a few of the "name" players who busted out on the first day.
I agree that the early stages of a MTT feature fishier play, but I don't think it's as easy as you believe. And it's a shame if you are passing up good chances to double up, because these are exactly the players who will give you that good chance to double up. As for a 60/40 edge at Level I... ehh, use your own judgment. That's not really what I was talking about.
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#55
09-25-2004, 02:45 AM
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Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
"I would bet that in a large tourney most top players are more than 90% likely to double up before going bust."
That is inconceivable. And its truth would imply that such a player should fold not only kings but also ACES if forced all in (getting slightly better than even money) at the beginning of the tournament. I'm sure that even the most egostistical of the top tournament players would put themselves below 70%.
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#56
09-25-2004, 05:28 PM
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Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
[ QUOTE ]
"I would bet that in a large tourney most top players are more than 90% likely to double up before going bust." That is inconceivable. And its truth would imply that such a player should fold not only kings but also ACES if forced all in (getting slightly better than even money) at the beginning of the tournament. I'm sure that even the most egostistical of the top tournament players would put themselves below 70%. [/ QUOTE ] You clearly underestimate Phil Hellmuth. :P However, I think the more interesting question here, is about folding Kings instead of a numerical edge because it is more relevant to an actual situation. At the main event WSOP, your table is made of complete fish, except for this one player who sits to your left. This is one of the first few hours of the tournament, and you don't have a great read on anybody, but you have ideas on how they play. Kings in the CO, and you raise 3x BB. Your opponent has 2x your stack, and raises back at you. Your opponent has been quite aggressive today, and while you can't put him on a specific range of hands, you have Kings. You reraise. Now, your opponent puts in a 4th raise, and essentially forces you to a decision for your entire stack right here. All of these are relatively standard No-Limit raises, you have 12,000 in chips right now. Unfortunately, I don't know exactly what the WSOP structure is, so that's the best I can do. Do you go all in, or do you fold?
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#57
09-25-2004, 08:52 PM
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Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
TONS of big name players busted out on day 1 of the WSOP this year (well, day 1 and 2, because of the split field, but you know what I mean). And if you knowingly pass up a 60:40 opportunity, you're not a top player.
Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)
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#58
09-25-2004, 08:53 PM
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Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
If you're ever going to fold KK preflop, now is the time to do it. The fourth raise is going to be less than AA very seldom.
Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)
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#60
09-28-2004, 05:22 PM
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Re: How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?
INteresting post...not sure how anyone can disagree. IT was clearly illustrated. My question...IF you were very short-stacked and very near the cutoff line for money, would you fold As? Have you ever? I can only assume that a player of professional caliber does not, while an amateur like myself probably should. What do you think?
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