Ever fold KK preflop?

#1 12-04-2005, 01:02 PM

First a little background: I'm in the midst of a 3-week run of negative variance. The decks for me have been so cold, even Jack Frost wears a jacket. Over the past 2700 hands, the big pairs (AA-KK) and AK have not been good to me. Raising them PF has actually been -EV for me (over last 2700 hands AA wins 45%, AK 30%, KK 29%!!!). I'm -15BB with AK, -5BB with KK, and only +3BB with AA. Now I understand variance and I still raise these hands PF, but after the lickin' I've been takin', I'm, well, almost scared to see those cards [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Ok, now you know the history, here's what happened last night. Playing at a relatively moderate table. Guy to my right (MP2) is a real solid TAG. Never plays junk. Ever. If he raises PF, you know he's got something. UTG+1 is a lag that is running super hot. He's already busted KK by me earlier with his A-rag. Everything he touches turns to gold. Don't have a lot of history with him, but after 50 hands this sessions, he's 45% VPIP, 15% pfr, 15 AGG. He really likes to play face-xs (K5s, Q5s etc), as well as any 2 face cards, and, of course, Ax. He'll raise/reraise to the river with middle pair or greater, or any draw. MP1 just sat down not too long ago, so I don't have a good read on him. He's played a lot of hands, but folded before the river so I don't know what he's been playing.

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, MP1 3-bets, MP2 caps, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

So it's 4 to me. MP2 is the guy I'm really worried about. 3 going to the flop, and I know that MP2 has TT-AA, AK or AQ (he wouldn't cap with AJ, and I'm not even sure about AQ). I figure UTG+1 for a big pair or any 2 face cards, and MP2 for the same.

So I fold. I just don't see that many outs to draw to. All of the extra kings could be held by the other players, and I know if MP2 hits the flop, he'll raise with UTG+1 re-raising, which means I'm stuck in the middle. As cold as the deck has been for me, I just folded. So would anyone else do the same, or do you always call? Do you ever factor in the "cold-snap" when deciding to make a call?

bozlax · #2 12-04-2005, 01:04 PM

tl;dr

no

benkath1 · #3 12-04-2005, 01:06 PM

KK is a capping/call cap hand. Always.

#4 12-04-2005, 01:17 PM

In this situation, look at it like you are just up against MP2 since UTG+1 could do this with facecard/x as you said, you are way ahead of his range. Don't even bother with his play after the river. Keep betting for maximum value from him.

MP1 who plays lots of hand can have a smaller pair, or broadway, you can have him dominated or being a 80/20 favorite against him. Watch his play after the river in case he may hit a set. MP2 is tight, but there is only one hand that beats us. Are you really that afraid of AA here? He may aswell cap it with QQ here having seen how UTG+1 plays his hand.

This is a clear call preflop. I'm guessing you wouldn't fold this 3 weeks ago, you are just being scared of the last 3 weeks bad run. You need to get over those and start playing your A-game again. Start reviewing old sessions to see if you made a mistake or you where just sucked out on, where you could have get away from the hand and so on. But I agree to some point, I hate playing AA,KK or QQ in these 0,10/0,20 limit games since I get a bunch of action preflop and postflop but I never fold being result-oriented. I never fold when I am the favorite. Good luck getting back on track.

#5 12-04-2005, 01:18 PM

Yeah, I know it *should* be. But do you ever factor in your "cold-streak" as well as the rest of the players and just say "it's probably not worth it?".

See, here's what sucks. I almost *knew* I wasn't gonna win. Don't ask me how, or why, something in my gut said "this ain't good". Now I don't normally get that. I usually just play the cards that are dealt and that's that. But given the texture of the game, the players etc..., and my cold-snap (this really factored in a lot), I layed it down. Here's the flop:
Flop: (17.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 raises, Button folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 3-bets, MP2 calls, UTG+1 calls.

So of course, I would've lost. The A almost guarantees it. So in this case, my laydown was fortuitous, it saved me money. Is following your gut a bad thing? Or is that just fear that comes from negative variance? At the beginning of my downswing 3 weeks ago, I would've called. But after having KK get busted so many times (as I said, it's turned -EV for me), it seemed that this is the right thing to do... Or not?

#6 12-04-2005, 01:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So of course, I would've lost. The A almost guarantees it. So in this case, my laydown was fortuitous, it saved me money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see it as you saved money since you are the favorite preflop here to often. Now the flop happened to come out good for your fold but what if it didnt? Would you see it as loosing money? I personally hate this kind of thinking since it's the same as thinking you lost money when you didnt call the raise preflop with 74os when the flop came 744.

#7 12-04-2005, 01:39 PM

Yeah, I know what you mean. It's really negative reinforcement. Like getting beaten by A-rag all the time. Doesn't mean you should play A-rag, but if I had, I can honestly state that my downsing wouldn't be near as severe [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Obviously, my reasoning for folding was wrong. I'll not do it again. I was really curious, though, if other folks would make a similar decision when you're running so cold. Like I said, when KK only wins 28% of the time over 2700 hands, do you factor that in. Over the long haul, it should even out, but I was wondering do you make adjustments in the short haul (sorta like daytraders do with stock).

#8 12-04-2005, 03:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I know what you mean. It's really negative reinforcement. Like getting beaten by A-rag all the time. Doesn't mean you should play A-rag, but if I had, I can honestly state that my downsing wouldn't be near as severe [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Obviously, my reasoning for folding was wrong. I'll not do it again. I was really curious, though, if other folks would make a similar decision when you're running so cold. Like I said, when KK only wins 28% of the time over 2700 hands, do you factor that in. Over the long haul, it should even out, but I was wondering do you make adjustments in the short haul (sorta like daytraders do with stock).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes! Absolutely. Put your pocket change in your LEFT pocket. Put a golf tee over your RIGHT ear. Double knot your Nike's (go buy Nike's if you don't have them!) Use the index finger of your opposite hand to raise BUT the middle finger to FOLD! . . .

Or maybe just try a different poker site for a nice change of scenery.

Greg J · #9 12-04-2005, 01:24 PM

What would have happened does not matter. You should clearly cold call four preflop with your ace magnets. Seriously, it's not close.

#10 12-04-2005, 01:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
See, here's what sucks. I almost *knew* I wasn't gonna win. Don't ask me how, or why, something in my gut said "this ain't good". Now I don't normally get that. I usually just play the cards that are dealt and that's that. But given the texture of the game, the players etc..., and my cold-snap (this really factored in a lot), I layed it down. Here's the flop:
Flop: (17.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 raises, Button folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 3-bets, MP2 calls, UTG+1 calls.

So of course, I would've lost. The A almost guarantees it. So in this case, my laydown was fortuitous, it saved me money. Is following your gut a bad thing? Or is that just fear that comes from negative variance? At the beginning of my downswing 3 weeks ago, I would've called. But after having KK get busted so many times (as I said, it's turned -EV for me), it seemed that this is the right thing to do... Or not?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes downswings can be very frustrating. But by playing weak tight because you "know" that you're going to lose again is just going to make things worse. You should never ever in your entire life fold KK preflop in limit holdem. It is a very big mistake.