Colorado -3 1/2 v Texas A&M POTW#6

[MyTurn2Raise]

Ok, the early bird gets the worm. I like Colorado -3 1/2 verse Texas A&M for my play of the week in college football for Oct 8th.

I almost forgot about Colorado after the game against Colorado St. But the way they thrashed Oklahoma St. on the road this past weekend, 34-0, forced me to investigate them again. Yes, it appears Les Miles left Okie St. a disaster, but Colorado seems to be a legitimate top 25 team.

I watched Texas A&M for the second time this year as they nipped and tucked their way past Baylor. Apparently, their offense isn't quite what I thought it was.

Last year...Texas A&M beat Colorado at College Station 29-26 in OT

Here's why that will change this year:

1) The Colorado defense will hold A&M down.

A&M torched the Buffs last year for 29 pts, 25 first downs, and over 530 yards. (OVertime did inflate this some.) That will not happen again. Colorado returns 10 guys off that defense and they are much improved. Last year, the D gave up about 420 ypg. This year, the Buffs are giving up about 290. The run D which gave up 225+ 6 times last year is giving up 80 ypg. This team is improved and tough.

While the aggie offense averages look impressive, the game stories say otherwise. Against their real competition, Clemson and Baylor?, A&M threw for 100 and 132 and ran for 248 and 155 respectively. That's just over 310 ypg against major conference schools mostly due to QB McNeal's running (A&M fans should have their fingers crossed that he doesn't take a bad hit and leave one of these games.)

Expect about 300 yards from A&M and 13 +- 4 points.

2) Colorado should put up 20 points plus on A&M.
Colorado hit A&M up for 26pts, 22 first downs, and 510 yards in last years game on the road (Note: inflated due to OT). last year, A&M gave up 387 ypg. This year, they are giving up 396 through their first 4, which included 2 cream puffs. Seems they are a bit worse on D.

Colorado averaged 340 ypg and 17 pts last year...yikes. This year, the buffs put up 394 ypg and 31,39,3, and 34 points against Colorado St, Nex Mexico St, Miami, and Oklahoma St. So, Miami owned them. Miami owns everyone else too. The competition is inflating Colorado's numbers a little, but there is improvement over last year's squad.

I expect 21+-4 points from the Buffalos.

3) Intangibles point CU's way. The Buffs are at home. colorado had the #1 special teams unit in the country according to Phil Steele. Barnett is second to only Beamer in having good special teams year in and year out. Last year, the Aggies won the turnover battle in the game by 2. Colorado has forced 8 turnovers this year while only giving up 5. The Aggies are even with 3 turnovers taken and 3 given. However, they are -3 against their major conference opponents. Expect Colorado to win the turnover battle.
Moreover, I like the psyche of Colorado players going into this game better than A&M. A&M must have lingering doubts after Baylor. CU is pumped after whipping butt on the road last week. If things start bad for the aggies, it can get worse fast.
Intangibles +3 in Colorado's favor

Thus, I predict Colorado 24, A&M 13.
Take Colorado - 3 1/2 v Texas A&M

FYI, I'm 4-1 on my POTY, 8-2 ytd on 2+2 recommended picks
(I'm due for a correction; might be time to fade me.)

[MyTurn2Raise]

bumped since I mentioned it and I am egotistical enough to like seeing my post at the top for a few minutes.

BTW-I'm still in agreement with my reasoning on this game.

[scalf]

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] but now ya gotta fear the worst; the scalf fade; although i .ve been hot lately; 2 winning cfb weeks in a row; helluva streak..lol..

but i luv the buffs here; and agree that tex am is a disappointment this year..

lol

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[primetimenole]

MyTurn - nice writeup, I appreciate the insight. I have been considering taking the Buffs and I think I may do so after this. Also, I just looked at Pinny and saw that they have CU -3, which is obviously even better than 3.5. Anyways, do you have any thoughts on the following games?

Louisville -12.5 at home against UNC...I like Louisville here at home. They always play well at the Papa and UNC's secondary is suspect. Plus I think they are still pissed about the USF loss.

TT -4 @ Nebraska - Obviously, we all know TT thrashed them last year 70-10. I just cannot see the Huskers scoring with TT. If they get down a couple TD's, what are they going to do??

I also like OU+14 and OSU-3 but those have been discussed in other threads....

Good Luck !! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[MyTurn2Raise]

I'm making a small wager with a friend on the OSU -3 (basically, he told me to put my money where my mouth is, so I did), but I personally see only 1/2 unit value here.

I like the Texas Tech pick and will probably be laying down a unit there too. Can Nebraska have improved on defense that much in one year to hold Tech under 30? I don't think so, and I don't see Nebraska scoring that much.

Staying away from L'ville. They are my Jekyll and Hyde team thus far. If I had to bet, I'd be with you.

I'm on the longhorns bandwagon and just don't know how the Sooners can put up more than 10. Of course, that might be enought to cover, but I don't think so. Then again, I'm not betting this one either.

So, I'm with you on 3 of the 4, and I'm with you on both that I'm wagering on.

[The4Aces]

i go to texas A & M and it really just depends if our QB is on his A-game or not.

[scalf]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] i am betting buffs -3...still available; and that's what bothers me...really; i wonder why g is not going to 4 pts and above; of course; a lotta rich aggies..

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[dankhank]

nice pick