Is it good to take every EV+ opportunity to push as a short stack?

[betgo]

According to HOH2 and the general consensus of this board, you should open push with almost any junk hand with 3-6xBB, because it is chip EV+.

Now I agree with this if the opportunities are really good. I once pushed 6 hands in a row in a live tournament near the bubble. If you have 3xBB and the blinds and antes are 3xBB and the play is tight enough that you have a good chance to steal and at worst probably get one caller, then you pretty much have to push. You either double up without a fight or get haeds up with 2-1 pot odds.

However, it the table is not that tight and your opportunities are not that great, I don't think it is necessary to push at every EV+ opportunity. As long as you have 4-7xBB, there should be plenty of EV+ steal opportunities. If you move up to say 10xBB, there will be much fewer (my red zone theory).

It is fairly easy to just maintain this very short stack, stealing enough to make up for the increased blinds. Wait for a good opportunity, rather than forcing one. You stay in the tournament and may cash or move up in prizes. You also may get the right opportunities to become a much larger stack.

I posted an example of this about a rebuy I played yesterday. I just maintained a very short stack for a long time. I knew that there were a lot of bad players left and I was waiting for a chance. At one point I had 2xBB. Shortly after that, near the bubble I had increased to 7xBB. Then I doubled up 3 times in one orbit putting me in 4th place in the tournament. One of the double ups was QQ vs. AK, but the other two took advantage of questionable loose aggressive play by my opponents. I was the tournament chip leader for a while and finished 5th. I have made many final tables by following a similar strategy of maintaining a very small stack for a long time.

This is basically an application of my red zone theory. I think it is often OK and reasonably easy to survive with a very small stack rather than take a lot of risks to build a bigger stack.

This is an aspect of what I was stating in my original red zone post. I understand that it is better to have 12xBB than 5xBB, but it may be more advantageous to stay the tournament with 5xBB than take marginal risks to double up.

This is basically a lot of what I was trying to say in my original post when I said it was OK to stay in the red zone.

Moderators: I consider this a different topic from the previous thread and request this not be locked. Flaimers: I would appreciate intelligent disagreement. I want posts by people who disagree as well as agree with me.

However, if you think the whole theory is stupid, dumb, moronic, retarded, etc., I know your opinion and so does everyone else, so I don't think it is necessary to make posts about how crazy and stupid this is.

[kuro]

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It is fairly easy to just maintain this very short stack, stealing enough to make up for the increased blinds

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I have a really hard time maintaining a stack of 3 to 5 xbb in a MTT unless it's a satelite or there are bubble considerations. The trouble is that the blinds are getting very good odds to call with any two so when you're pushing in late position just to maintain your stack you have to keep winning races where you're usually on either side of a 55:45 or 60:40 bet. When you win the race you buy yourself 2 or 3 orbit until you're right back in the same spot which isn't much time and if there are one or more aggressive players at your table the +ev spots are few and far between.

I don't pass up marginal EV spots because I want to get a bigger stack that grants me more folding equity when I push and time to wait for a better hand/spot. Folding equity is huge in surviving late in a tourney.

[odiggity]

nice post kuro

[betgo]

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I have a really hard time maintaining a stack of 3 to 5 xbb in a MTT unless it's a satelite or there are bubble considerations.

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I try to keep my stack more like 5-8xBB. If I get lower, I don't have much folding equity. If I get higher, I don't have odds to push with that many hands.

Of course I am not turning down extra chips, but I cannot obtain them without risking busting out.

[rockythecat99]

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As long as you have 4-7xBB, there should be plenty of EV+ steal opportunities. If you move up to say 10xBB, there will be much fewer (my red zone theory).



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I don't understand why you wouldn't have as many steal opportunities with 10 bb as 5 bb??? Don't you think when you get down to 5bb or less a big stack or most stacks will call with any two just based on pot odds alone??? If you have 10bb and raise to steal blinds and antes now your 10bb stack can do some damage to any other stack. Your opponents will have a tougher time calling you since you are basically saying"I am willing to go all the way with this hand" since your stack is only 10bb. I think the flaw in your argument is that you think you have less steal chances with a 10bb stack. I don't see how this could be.

[betgo]

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I don't understand why you wouldn't have as many steal opportunities with 10 bb as 5 bb??? Don't you think when you get down to 5bb or less a big stack or most stacks will call with any two just based on pot odds alone??? If you have 10bb and raise to steal blinds and antes now your 10bb stack can do some damage to any other stack. Your opponents will have a tougher time calling you since you are basically saying"I am willing to go all the way with this hand" since your stack is only 10bb. I think the flaw in your argument is that you think you have less steal chances with a 10bb stack. I don't see how this could be.

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You have many fewer EV+ stealing opportunities with 10xBB, because you are risking too much to gain too little. Of course a push for 10xBB has a better chance of taking the blinds than one for 5xBB.

[Exitonly]

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You have many fewer EV+ stealing opportunities with 10xBB

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fewer situations are +EV w/ a bigger stack, but all your +EV situations are MORE +EV w/ a bigger stack. You need a stack to get value out of your good hands.

[A_PLUS]

I think the characteristics of the tournament, and the stage are of key importance here.

No antes, smallish MTTs, I think there is some value to your theory here. Basically extending standard SNG theory, and weighing the EV of a play vs the EV of survival.

I think you are probably taking it too far letting yourself get down to 2xBB. Every blind you pay from 8xBB down hurts you alot. It costs you a lot of FE as well as 2x the amount when you double up.

I dont really like how you mention the CEV of short stack plays being beneficial. I think you are missing the point that there are situations where you would much rather have a slightly -CEV play with 5xBB than a +CEV play with 3xBB. If you hold your equity % constant, you increase CEV as your stack decreases releative to the blinds.

Basically, I can be convinced that we (collective) under estimate the value of survival. This would implie that CEV diverges from $EV more than I thought. But outside of that, I'm not sure I agree.

Take your 2xBB example.

Lets, say you are lucky enough to get HU with 65% equity a few times in a row (which is very generous)

1.) 65% of time, you have 5.5xBB
2.) 42.3% of time you have 12.5xBB
3.) 27.5% of time you have 26.5xBB

So, if you forget about the value of survival, do you really think that the probability of being able to get all in as that big of a favorite AND winning all three is higher than the equity you have calling an all-in at 12.5xBB with a hand like 77?

Also, there is a logical flaw in your story. How can it be easy to maintain a 5-7xBB stack, at the same time that players are too loose calling your steals?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the characteristics of the tournament, and the stage are of key importance here.

No antes, smallish MTTs, I think there is some value to your theory here. Basically extending standard SNG theory, and weighing the EV of a play vs the EV of survival.

I think you are probably taking it too far letting yourself get down to 2xBB. Every blind you pay from 8xBB down hurts you alot. It costs you a lot of FE as well as 2x the amount when you double up.

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In the example of my tournament yesterday, it was a low buyin rebuy. The play is excessively loose aggressive. My strategy in these until bubble time is generally to wait to get paid off for big hands, including sometimes playing speculative hands to make big hands.

I didn't have many good blind stealing opportunities. People were already in the pot or would call my push. So I hung around and hung around and started stealing with the bubble approaching. Then I doubled up allin preflop with AQo vs Q4o, QQ vs. AKo, and KK vs. 66. The hands against Q4 and 66 were in late position, but my opponents probably played too loose aggressive. Then I was in the leaders.

I play a lot of supersatellites and multitable SNGs where staying in the red zone is very viable, as survival is most important.

In a live tournament, there is typically 3xBB in blinds and antes. So you can profitably open push with 15xBB. Once you get past that point, you can open raise 3xBB and easily fold to a reraise. You can also resteal with decent folding equity. Live tournaments are also tighter than online even at low buyins, so an aggressive approach is more effective. It is easier to build back to 25xBB through stealing/restealing.

In online tournaments, there is no ante or typically 2xBB in blinds and antes. In this case, playing the range of 10-15xBB is more difficult.

There's a difference between EV/hand and total EV of a tournament. That said, I think that difference is pretty small when you've got 3xBB. The exception is when there's both a lot of pushing and a lot of calling at your table.

Keep in mind that % chance you get called is factored into EV/hand already.