Call w/A-4 on bubble w/short stack

EasilyFound · #1 06-20-2005, 01:03 AM

$11 SNG on Party. My eM = .9333. Do I have any choice but to call given my stack size and blind level? BTW, big stack has been pushing a lot, and with wide range of hands, so that read favors a call. But I'm curious whether the answer is the same or different without any significant reads on villain.

Sun Jun 19 23:49:01 EDT 2005
400/800 Table Table 35255 (Real Money) -- Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: saintjose (2525)
Seat 3: tmloveskg (2070)
Seat 7: EasilyFound (1400)
Seat 8: GREG_RULES (2005)
EasilyFound posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to EasilyFound [ 4h, As ]
GREG_RULES folds.
saintjose raises (2525) to 2525
saintjose is all-In.
tmloveskg folds.
EasilyFound ????

lastchance · #2 06-20-2005, 01:05 AM

If you don't have any reads, I can't put him on a range looser than 22+ A2+, K9+, QJ, and you certainly shouldn't play A4o against that. Against an aggressive big stack who could be raising a lot of hands, the call beomes much better. I think I gamble here.

EasilyFound · #3 06-20-2005, 01:29 AM

You are correct that the hand doesn't play well against that range, although he had pushed earlier w/J-T off suit, so the range might be a little wider, but the hand doesn't play well even if you loosen it a bit more.

My problem is that I'll be down to t1000 w/$600 in blinds in the pot. Do I have a better chance of doubling up by folding here and pushing any 2 in the next hand or the hand after? Isn't this the best -ev oppty I'll have in the next three hands?

lastchance · #4 06-20-2005, 01:36 AM

It would suck to fold here and fold in the SB next round. That's near half your stack right there. Folding down to 2x BB just isn't good.

If I'm not a signifigant dog, I'm gambling here. I think you've got enough.

lutefisk · #5 06-20-2005, 02:28 AM

I wouldn't be happy about it, but I'd call. I agree with you that the stack/blinds have you in a tough spot. If you let it go, you're looking at stealing with any two against the two bigger stacks. Certainly the lesser of two evils here. The read on the raiser makes me feel a little better, but I think you have to go here either way.

"Only after the 10th punch will you see the fist, and only after the 20th will you block it." --Proverb from the game of Go

EasilyFound · #6 06-20-2005, 07:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you don't have any reads, I can't put him on a range looser than 22+ A2+, K9+, QJ, and you certainly shouldn't play A4o against that. Against an aggressive big stack who could be raising a lot of hands, the call beomes much better. I think I gamble here.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to pokerstove, A-4 is a 1.3 to 1 dog against that range of hands, and the pot is now offering me 1.4 to 1 odds.

If I fold and push with any two in one of the next two hands, then I'm pushing $1000 to win $1600 if the BB calls, which the BB should, because the BB will be getting more than 2-1 to call. Let's assume I have to push a hand like 97 off suit. That hand is a 46% dog (1.25 to 1) against a random hand. So the pot odds there are also favorable, but more favorable.

Did I analyze this correctly?

45suited · #7 06-20-2005, 09:53 AM

The only thing that you haven't taken into account is that you might not have the chance to OP the next hand with that 97o that you mentioned.

This spot sucks, but I'm calling here. Since big stack has been pushing alot, the bonus is that there is a decent chance that you actually have the plus side of a coin flip here.

Newt_Buggs · #8 06-20-2005, 02:03 PM

I wasn't even going to check with ICM on this one since it doesn't work very well here but eastbays tool says that this is an extreemly -EV call against anything but a very aggressive player. At first I was going to say call because folding loses you so much FE and winning will place you as chip leader, allowing you to bully the table. After looking it over though I don't think that these factors can overcome so much situational -EV. I'm not sure if I could call this even against a 2+2er, he would have to be pushing things like K2, Q9 for me to consider this call.

MastiffPaul · #9 06-20-2005, 03:52 PM

I don't think the argument is that OP isn't going to get the more tarnished side of a coin here. I think the argument is that folding and waiting for a better opportunity will provide no better opportunity--that this is the best opportunity OP will have, given his stack and the blinds. (As one poster has said, one must consider that OP will not have the opportunity to open-push before s/he is blinded.) Add this to the fact that, if OP's luckbox goes BOIIING, his/her stack size will allow more breathing room than folding and hoping for a blind-steal would.

Newt_Buggs · #10 06-20-2005, 04:15 PM

aganst most players A4o does not stack up well against the aggressors hand range. The SB will skip you next hand, giving you the button and enough chips for FE. You are definitly not in good shape, but you still have a fighting chance if you fold.

This does not look like a steal, so how often do you think that you are ahead here opposed to being dominated?