Raising 77 after 5 limpers

[Nfinity]

4 Card Flop

[droolie]

It's a solid play. I wouldn't get so bogged down in implied odds. Implied odds are always strong with sets because they're hard to see especially when you raise with a low PP and there are no high cards on the board. You have a decent amount of equity pf with 77 that it's almost a raise for value. If the blinds come along then it is a value raise. You also stand a decent chance of seeing four cards if there's an A on the flop. That makes it a no brainer because seeing 4 cards maximizes your chance to hit a set and win the pot.

[imported_Reaction]

Limping EV = (-1)*(8) + (15)*(1) = 7
Raising EV = (-2)*(8) + (12)*(2) = 8

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Why are you multiplying by 2 here?


I'm multiplying by 2 because I'm using the implied odds value. I win 12 times the preflop investment, which is 2 becaue I raised.

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Yes. You are 8:1 to hit your set with one bet. When raised or raising you have now doubled your implied odds to 16:2. Don't you have to balance the full equation?

EV(8:1)= (-1)*8 + (15)*1 = 7
EV(16:2)= (-2)*16 + (12)*2 = -8

[ReptileHouse]

OK, so since we're value raising based on hitting a set, how low of a PP is reasonable to raise here? 66? 55? Lower? We're not looking to win this pot unimproved, so the only time the size of our set matters is when we run into another set. How often will that actually happen and how much should it affect our play here?

[lautzutao]

I believe a play like this is only +EV if you think everyone will check to you, thus giving you the option of a free card. I've seen this advocated as well in posts other than the one listed.

[DCWildcat]

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Your preflop raise affects the dynamics of the hands. Players will tend to chase more and pay off more because of the increased pot size. Also, some players will play their hands more aggressively when the pot gets big.


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This is the relevant point.

Are you likely to make up 1 additional small bet on later streets by bloating the pot? You sure as hell are.

With 8 limpers this is a value raise.

[Shillx]

Of course it hurts our implied odds. If we need 10:1 effective to play a pair (which is about right if it isn't the last betting round), we get hurt by every extra bet that goes in @ 6:1 preflop.

So if we don't raise (assume that the SB folds and the BB checks) we have to get 4 SB postflop. If we raise (SB folds and BB calls) we have to get 8 SB postflop.

The reason why a raise is good is beacuse we hope to get a free shot at 2 outs when we miss. We also expect that the extra SB invest PF will get us more then 2 extra big bets postflop. So if all the extra chasing by the opponents gets us 4 BB more then if we limped, it is good to raise.

So this brings up the important point...

If your opponents will fold QJs on a T73r board when you limp but call when you raise, you should raise that 77. If however he will call no matter if you limp or raise, you should just limp. The worst time to make this play is in a very loose game where people will chase longshots regardless of pot size. If people are sensitive to the size of the pot, it makes more sense to raise it up preflop.

Brad

[theghost]

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Don't you have to balance the full equation?

EV(8:1)= (-1)*8 + (15)*1 = 7
EV(16:2)= (-2)*16 + (12)*2 = -8

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no, because (-2)*8 means you will pay 2 bets eight times to win once, which is the case when you raise.

[pipster]

Another important point for raising 77 from the button, is many players will see a button raise from a pre-flop raiser as meaning nothing. So they will call you when a button raise from a pre-flop limper on a non-scary board will often scream middle pair (vs an attempt to buy a pot from the button).

I will often get a lot more action on a flopped set if I was aggressive pre-flop, than if I am passive and then suddenly "wake-up".