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Fishy or Bad run?
I have posted previously in regards to Party Poker and filling flushes. The numbers I used were off hand written notes, and what responses I received were basically that no one believed me, and thought I was full of crap.
I have had PokerTracker load over 10,000 hands for me now, and these are real solid figures: I have seen 398 flops with either a suited Ace or a suited King. I'm quite certain that you should expect a flush 6% of the time. Of these hands I have 9 flushes. 9/398= 2.2%. I have flopped a 4 flush 32 times, odds say 35% to fill, I've filled 3. 3/32= 9%. I flopped 1 flush in 398, and don't know what the odds of a 5 card flush are. I have hit a 4th card to my flush 30 times on the turn, and filled 6. 20% v 19% odds. I play mostly small limit hold 'em (not that that matters), and have read and studied 3 or 4 times, and play by Miller Sklansky, and Malmuth's "Small Stakes Hold 'em" book, and has previous studied at least 8 other books on the game. I can live with the bad beats at the hands of poor players chasing a miracle and hitting, I would just like to get paid off making correct plays somewhere close to the odds. Should I feel that something is fishy playing online, and adjust the strength I give flush draw online, completely against what is suggested in "Small Stakes Hold 'em", am I just terribly unlucky, or are these numbers not as far out of whack as I see them? |
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