NFL Team Rankings

[NoChance]

Indy's defensive rating took a beating and thus their rating dropped a little bit. With the losses to Cincy, Carolina, and Pittsburgh....Denver distanced itself from the rest of the pack to show up as the second best team behind Indy. Chicago moved up with the losses to those other teams as well. Every time I mention a team moving up, they seem to lose. Does that mean Chicago goes down to Tampa Bay this week?

After Week 11:

2.080 Indianapolis
1.925 Denver
1.516 NY Giants
1.480 Dallas
1.476 San Diego
1.467 Chicago
1.453 Pittsburgh
1.451 Cincinnati
1.327 Jacksonville
1.319 Seattle
1.089 Carolina
0.837 Washington
0.635 Tampa Bay
0.591 Kansas City
0.587 New England
0.564 Atlanta
0.503 Philadelphia
0.428 Cleveland
0.417 Oakland
0.317 Green Bay
0.173 Detroit
-0.048 Miami
-0.076 Minnesota
-0.090 Baltimore
-0.319 St. Louis
-0.333 Arizona
-0.375 Buffalo
-0.636 Tennessee
-0.707 NY Jets
-1.019 New Orleans
-1.022 San Francisco
-1.138 Houston

Inianapolis has been perfect this year so far. If you look at my orignial post, once again it shows how good New England was last year as they finished with a rating of 2.414, mostly because they played a tougher schedule and dominated I think.

[NoChance]

Indy's rating went up quite a bit after that game. Pit is falling, looking bad the last month or so. Chicago's defense keeping them ranked high.

After Week 12:

2.313 Indianapolis
1.922 Denver
1.504 Chicago
1.461 San Diego
1.453 NY Giants
1.442 Seattle
1.384 Cincinnati
1.354 Dallas
1.336 Jacksonville
1.297 Pittsburgh
1.118 Carolina
0.823 Atlanta
0.770 Washington
0.726 Kansas City
0.643 Tampa Bay
0.592 Philadelphia
0.465 New England
0.240 Green Bay
0.221 Cleveland
0.204 Oakland
0.137 Miami
0.083 Minnesota
-0.031 Detroit
-0.225 Baltimore
-0.236 Buffalo
-0.338 St. Louis
-0.349 Arizona
-0.547 Tennessee
-0.737 NY Jets
-0.945 New Orleans
-1.115 Houston
-1.129 San Francisco

[Dynasty]

The one thing I don't like about this ranking system is that "2.313" doesn't mean anything to me.

If a team has a .650 winning percentage, I understand it's value. But, a "NoChance 2.313 rating" is incomprehensible.

Somehow, you should work on the final results of one team having meaning without being listed along side all the other team's results.

[IggyWH]

[ QUOTE ]
Somehow, you should work on the final results of one team having meaning without being listed along side all the other team's results.

[/ QUOTE ]

What stat alone tells you how good that stat was? You know 300 yards passing in a game is a good thing from history. The same with 100 yards rushing, or putting up say 50 points are all good things. All these stats that you know as good are comparative to the same stats over history.

His stats are great as they are. It just takes a little bit of brain power (comparing numbers to other teams) to realize what's good and what's bad.

[utmt40]

My question is how the Chargers are number 4? They arent as good as all these bandwagoners are saying.

[NoChance]

Rating = (win percentage) + (offensive rating x 2) + (defensive rating X 3)

The number itself means nothing to me either. I just post it to show how close each team is to each other.

Offensive rating is the percentage of points +or- a team scores against the the average number it's opponents give up.

Defensive rating is the percentage of points +or- a team scores against the average number it's opponents score.

A slight weight is given to defensive rating (x3 as opposed to x2 for offense) as those teams usually do better in the playoffs. As I stated earlier, since using this spreadsheet, the team the wins the superbowl generally scores 5-7% more than it's opponents usually give up but the defense allows about 10-15 less than their apponents usually score. Here are the ratings for each team as of week 12. Offense on the left (higher the better). Defense on the right (lower the better).

0.9153 1.1508 Arizona
1.1457 1.0349 Atlanta
0.7243 0.9822 Baltimore
0.6653 0.9769 Buffalo
1.1430 0.9650 Carolina
0.7879 0.5997 Chicago
1.3312 1.0018 Cincinnati
0.7663 0.8918 Cleveland
1.0133 0.7696 Dallas
1.2412 0.7929 Denver
0.8633 1.0404 Detroit
1.0412 1.0082 Green Bay
0.7811 1.2561 Houston
1.2709 0.7430 Indianapolis
0.9740 0.7798 Jacksonville
1.1020 1.0382 Kansas City
0.8553 0.9791 Miami
0.9561 1.1250 Minnesota
1.1264 1.1112 New England
0.7911 1.2667 New Orleans
1.2041 0.8637 NY Giants
0.6487 1.0719 NY Jets
1.0391 1.0794 Oakland
1.0207 0.9678 Philadelphia
1.0565 0.8176 Pittsburgh
1.3771 0.9765 San Diego
0.7761 1.2878 San Francisco
1.1204 0.8723 Seattle
1.1314 1.3517 St. Louis
0.9674 0.9760 Tampa Bay
0.9651 1.2501 Tennessee
0.9987 0.8940 Washington

Sorted by Offense top to bottom:

1.3771 San Diego
1.3312 Cincinnati
1.2709 Indianapolis
1.2412 Denver
1.2041 NY Giants
1.1457 Atlanta
1.1430 Carolina
1.1314 St. Louis
1.1264 New England
1.1204 Seattle
1.1020 Kansas City
1.0565 Pittsburgh
1.0412 Green Bay
1.0391 Oakland
1.0207 Philadelphia
1.0133 Dallas
0.9987 Washington
0.9740 Jacksonville
0.9674 Tampa Bay
0.9651 Tennessee
0.9561 Minnesota
0.9153 Arizona
0.8633 Detroit
0.8553 Miami
0.7911 New Orleans
0.7879 Chicago
0.7811 Houston
0.7761 San Francisco
0.7663 Cleveland
0.7243 Baltimore
0.6653 Buffalo
0.6487 NY Jets

How to read: San Diego scores 37.71% more than their opponents average giving up.

Sorted by Defense top to bottom:

0.5997 Chicago
0.7430 Indianapolis
0.7696 Dallas
0.7798 Jacksonville
0.7929 Denver
0.8176 Pittsburgh
0.8637 NY Giants
0.8723 Seattle
0.8918 Cleveland
0.8940 Washington
0.9650 Carolina
0.9678 Philadelphia
0.9760 Tampa Bay
0.9765 San Diego
0.9769 Buffalo
0.9791 Miami
0.9822 Baltimore
1.0018 Cincinnati
1.0082 Green Bay
1.0349 Atlanta
1.0382 Kansas City
1.0404 Detroit
1.0719 NY Jets
1.0794 Oakland
1.1112 New England
1.1250 Minnesota
1.1508 Arizona
1.2501 Tennessee
1.2561 Houston
1.2667 New Orleans
1.2878 San Francisco
1.3517 St. Louis

How to read: Chicago gives up only 59.97% points that their opponents normally score.

Anyway, there are the details. Time for bed.

I simply developed this spreadsheet for my betting purposes so I could compare how teams do versus the opponents they have played. I simply post this for entertainment for anyone who is interested. It has helped me a lot.

[Victor]

it looks like the problem with your system is that it doesnt take into account head to head matchups whatsoever.

pitt and jax beat cincy and played a hard schedule but are ranked lower.

the bears played a cupcake schedule and got whupped by cincy but are higher.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
Indy's rating went up quite a bit after that game. Pit is falling, looking bad the last month or so. Chicago's defense keeping them ranked high.

After Week 12:

2.313 Indianapolis
1.922 Denver
1.504 Chicago
1.461 San Diego
1.453 NY Giants
1.442 Seattle
1.384 Cincinnati
1.354 Dallas
1.336 Jacksonville
1.297 Pittsburgh
1.118 Carolina
0.823 Atlanta
0.770 Washington
0.726 Kansas City
0.643 Tampa Bay
0.592 Philadelphia
0.465 New England
0.240 Green Bay
0.221 Cleveland
0.204 Oakland
0.137 Miami
0.083 Minnesota
-0.031 Detroit
-0.225 Baltimore
-0.236 Buffalo
-0.338 St. Louis
-0.349 Arizona
-0.547 Tennessee
-0.737 NY Jets
-0.945 New Orleans
-1.115 Houston
-1.129 San Francisco

[/ QUOTE ]

How the [censored] is green bay ranked higher than MN despite being swept by them and having a lot worse record?

[NoChance]

[ QUOTE ]
it looks like the problem with your system is that it doesnt take into account head to head matchups whatsoever.

pitt and jax beat cincy and played a hard schedule but are ranked lower.

the bears played a cupcake schedule and got whupped by cincy but are higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would think so but it's not that easy. Lets not forget Denver lost to Miami. Carolina lost to New Orleans. Teams have bad games. This averages in EVERY game. The part that is tough is how to deal with injuries. I mean, if Peyton Manning goes down, my ratings for future games mean nothing. Same goes for running backs and things like that. These are just numbers but you have to also use common sense.

I thin kif you go to Yahoo, you will see Seattle ranked as the number one offense. However, that goes strictly by points scored. It ignores that they have played a ton of teams that give up more points than most teams average. At least this gets me one step closer when considering my bets.

[NoChance]

[ QUOTE ]

How the [censored] is green bay ranked higher than MN despite being swept by them and having a lot worse record?

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, you are only looking at a couple games. Show me a game where Green Bay got blown out? I'll show you quite a few where Minnesota did. Green Bay's record is bad but they have been in every game even with tons of injuries this year. This helps when handicapping games.