BB, Hit Middle Pair on Flop, bet out?

BruinEric · #1 01-08-2005, 04:28 AM

It's little hands like these that I think might be a leak in my game. Even if this one is fine, I'm going to keep posting a few post-flop decision hands to get opinions.

Question: Should I have bet out on the flop? Was my fold ok? I didn't get a grasp of my outs at the time -- it just smelled like a foldo.

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets, Button folds, SB raises, Hero folds, CO calls.

River: (9 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, CO calls.

Final Pot: 11 BB

Vern · #2 01-08-2005, 04:33 AM

I think you played it fine seeing as there was no pre-flop raise. Once it was two to you on the turn, goodbye. Nice hand.

Vern

Ianco15 · #3 01-08-2005, 05:16 AM

Action seems fine. I might check/fold the flop with so many limpers, but I could go either way.

TwoShedsJackson · #4 01-08-2005, 05:33 AM

I'd be disinclined to bet into a field this size on this board. It's a probable check/fold for me.

the_rookie · #5 01-08-2005, 05:59 AM

I agree with check/folding the flop. Your outs do not seem very clean either.

LazyRobot · #6 01-08-2005, 06:18 AM

Yeah. that's what gets me too. Position, middle pair, okay kicker, two to flush, queen in the "play zone" against a large field. I am leaning check/fold the flop.

ArturiusX · #7 01-08-2005, 09:48 AM

check/fold the flop, even if you were on the button I still wouldn't get involved.

BruinEric · #8 01-08-2005, 12:45 PM

I appreciate the replies. I'm naturally inclined to being weak tight, so I've been trying to find appropriate areas where I bet out without top pair or better.

While mulling this over today, I spent some time with SSHE and found a somewhat similar flop decision as an example, with possibly some key differences.

[ QUOTE ]
Small Stakes Hold 'em
Page 148, Playing Aggresively with Marginal Hands (paraphrased)

Say you have 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the big blind. You call a button raise, as do some others -- 12.5 SB

The flop is: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You check, and everyone else checks to the button, who bets. You should raise. You have middle pair and a backdoor straight draw. You estimate its worth at about five outs (the two-flush and coordinated nature of the board lower the value of your hand somewhat). For a five out draw you need the pot to lay about 8-to-1 to continue. Getting 13-to-1, you clearly should just call.

But raising is better than calling. You may have a better hand than the preflop raiser. He could have a big pair or ace-ten, but he may also be automatically betting unimproved overcards such as ace-king.

The section continues about the value of getting others to fold... and concludes with "When the pot is large, invest extra bets if doing so improves your chance to win."

[/ QUOTE ]

Before I read SSHE, I check/call this flop and check/fold the turn. But insipired by a turn toward aggressive play, I bet this out now. However - I am very open to the idea that I've misapplied these concepts.

First, we have to throw away some of the "make 'em fold" angle to this example, because I am not asking the table to face two bets cold. Two folded, but who knows what they had? Maybe there is SOME fold value in this bet?

Let's go with the above and say I have five outs on my hand. I have a crazy dbl-gutshot straight alongside my chance for 2 pair or trips and the same flush threat in Miller's example. I need 8-to-1 to continue, and by beting out I am risking one bet when I led out to win 6. By the end of the flop round, it turns out I "got" 10-1 odds on that bet and possibly some benefit by having overcards fold.

I'm not sure Miller's closing aphorism applies either, because I can't really call this a "big pot." And this may be really what's critical here.

My conclusion at the moment is that my flop bet is a borderline call, but because of poor position it is likely a bad choice on the typical table. Agree or disagree?

If you were 2nd-to-last on flop round on my hand and the betting had been checked to you, would you bet out? I probably would and will, am I giving away money doing this?

If you were last on flop round on my hand and the betting was raised to you, would you re-raise? I would probably not because pot not as big as example.

I have been running poorly the last 2000 hands after implementing some of this (possibly misapplied or not) aggressive play without already having TP or better. I bet out on lots of missed flops -- with 2 overcards, with middle pair (unless 3-flush on board), etc.

Additional thoughts on this needed!