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#11
06-19-2004, 08:56 PM
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Re: Standard Deviation
On the non math side of this question (it's long since left the front page of the zoo), Party has no incentive to give you LESS sets. If it wanted to cheat it should give you MORE sets and have them be beaten by flushes/straights by the river. The goal would be to increase the rake of course, but if you aren't making sets, then you are folding and not contributing much more money to the pot.
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#12
06-20-2004, 03:03 PM
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Re: Standard Deviation
I'm glad to see you doing this...
1. If Party's card distribution is nonrandom, then obviously it's something important to discover. As one poster already remarked, the long-run incentive for them really is to have fair and random deals (bots exploiting known nonrandom patterns would be the extreme corruption, but seems a bad risk/reward route when they've got a mighty golden goose in a fair and trusted dealt game). I'll be surprised if it comes out being singinficantly nonrandom, but checking is good. 2. Regardless, this discussion is a great stat lesson for folks interested in understanding the statistics behind the reality that what's often perceived as abnormal bad luck is actually perfectly "normal" in a random system.
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#13
06-20-2004, 03:24 PM
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Re: Standard Deviation
Hey Mud,
If you think the deal is rigged against you (and I agree that is entirely possible), you need to find the motivation PP would do so. An obvious motivation would be that you fit some profile of less-desirable player. Most likely that they're not getting enough rake off you. Can you think of a way to analyze this in PT? Do you have enough data on other players and their rake to make a judgement? Or on your rake now vs. when you were winning more? delirium
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#14
06-20-2004, 05:35 PM
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Re: Standard Deviation
Actually, if Party wanted to cheat (and not be obvious, obviously), then the best way might actually be to even up the game among the players. Standard statistically random shuffle, but distribute the hands in such a way as to help the weaker players and handicap the stronger players. That way everyone plays longer (swapping the same money more or less around the ring) and Party increases its rake.
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