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#1
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Re: 10% refund question
[ QUOTE ]
Suppose you made 1000 $10 bets with a HA of only 1%. You would expect to lose $100 over that span and would be rebated $10 still losing $90. All they are doing is lowering the house advantage by 10% from 1% to .9%, still -EV. [/ QUOTE ] A 10% rebate on losses creates a +EV situation. You are just not looking at it properly. Bet your whole deposit on a single bet. Let's ignore the 3/2 payout for BJ and assume that I win 49% of the time (this MORE than accounts for the loss due to not being able to double or split)... Deposit $100 and bet it all: 49% of the time, I end up with $200; 51% of the time, I end up with $10. On average, I will end up with $103. Clearly, this is +EV. Acme |
#2
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Re: 10% refund question
[ QUOTE ]
Bet your whole deposit on a single bet. Let's ignore the 3/2 payout for BJ and assume that I win 49% of the time (this MORE than accounts for the loss due to not being able to double or split)... [/ QUOTE ] Actually it doesn't, that is the problem with your calculation. |
#3
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Re: 10% refund question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Bet your whole deposit on a single bet. Let's ignore the 3/2 payout for BJ and assume that I win 49% of the time (this MORE than accounts for the loss due to not being able to double or split)... [/ QUOTE ] Actually it doesn't, that is the problem with your calculation. [/ QUOTE ] That is not a big deal anyway. Bet half of your bankroll. Actually, I'm sure there is a spot between half and full bankroll that returns the highest EV, but none of this is really the point. |
#4
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Re: 10% refund question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Bet your whole deposit on a single bet. Let's ignore the 3/2 payout for BJ and assume that I win 49% of the time (this MORE than accounts for the loss due to not being able to double or split)... [/ QUOTE ] Actually it doesn't, that is the problem with your calculation. [/ QUOTE ] That is not a big deal anyway. Bet half of your bankroll. Actually, I'm sure there is a spot between half and full bankroll that returns the highest EV, but none of this is really the point. [/ QUOTE ] I think betting the full amount up front gives the greatest EV...it costs you in HA and thus %EV, but not in $EV. Acme |
#5
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Re: 10% refund question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Bet your whole deposit on a single bet. Let's ignore the 3/2 payout for BJ and assume that I win 49% of the time (this MORE than accounts for the loss due to not being able to double or split)... [/ QUOTE ] Actually it doesn't, that is the problem with your calculation. [/ QUOTE ] Just went to verify my numbers. I mis-remembered things slightly -- the 2% number is what no-double/no-split costs you (actually 1.91%), not the total house edge. So the total house edge ends up being 2.35%. But even with this HA, the rebate is a +EV situation for a single bet. 48.825% of the time you double up; 51.175% of the time, you end up with 10% of your bet. The EV is +$2.76. So despite all your protest to the contrary, a 10% rebate is a +EV offer. Acme |
#6
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Re: 10% refund question
[ QUOTE ]
So despite all your protest to the contrary, a 10% rebate is a +EV offer. [/ QUOTE ] And despite all your calculations the only thing I can agree with is that getting 10% of your losses back makes it less -EV but never +EV. After all if you end up losing money on your session you still lost. How can losing ever be +EV without a jackpot? Jimbo |
#7
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Re: 10% refund question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So despite all your protest to the contrary, a 10% rebate is a +EV offer. [/ QUOTE ] And despite all your calculations the only thing I can agree with is that getting 10% of your losses back makes it less -EV but never +EV. After all if you end up losing money on your session you still lost. How can losing ever be +EV without a jackpot? Jimbo [/ QUOTE ] OMG...you must be kidding me. Nobody can have >3000 posts here and be this ignorant...so I am going to assume you are just a worthless troll and ignore you going forward... Acme |
#8
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Re: 10% refund question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] So despite all your protest to the contrary, a 10% rebate is a +EV offer. [/ QUOTE ] And despite all your calculations the only thing I can agree with is that getting 10% of your losses back makes it less -EV but never +EV. After all if you end up losing money on your session you still lost. How can losing ever be +EV without a jackpot? Jimbo [/ QUOTE ] OMG...you must be kidding me. Nobody can have >3000 posts here and be this ignorant...so I am going to assume you are just a worthless troll and ignore you going forward... Acme [/ QUOTE ] Very nice, you cannot refute my logical argument so you resort to name calling. I expected better but alas I am often disappointed. Godd luck getting rich on your new +EV blackjack system. May I have an autographed copy of your book after it goes to print? Jimbo |
#9
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Re: 10% refund question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] So despite all your protest to the contrary, a 10% rebate is a +EV offer. [/ QUOTE ] And despite all your calculations the only thing I can agree with is that getting 10% of your losses back makes it less -EV but never +EV. After all if you end up losing money on your session you still lost. How can losing ever be +EV without a jackpot? Jimbo [/ QUOTE ] OMG...you must be kidding me. Nobody can have >3000 posts here and be this ignorant...so I am going to assume you are just a worthless troll and ignore you going forward... Acme [/ QUOTE ] Very nice, you cannot refute my logical argument so you resort to name calling. I expected better but alas I am often disappointed. Godd luck getting rich on your new +EV blackjack system. May I have an autographed copy of your book after it goes to print? Jimbo [/ QUOTE ] When you present a logical argument, I will refute it. Until then, I will continue to assume you are a troll. All you have said is that losing cannot be +EV. I have presented the way it is +EV, but all you say (over and over ad nauseum) is that if you lose, you only get back 10% of your bet, so it cannot be +EV. If you will not accept the math, you are either ignorant or a troll...and thus, I will not waste another second on you... Acme |
#10
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Re: 10% refund question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So despite all your protest to the contrary, a 10% rebate is a +EV offer. [/ QUOTE ] And despite all your calculations the only thing I can agree with is that getting 10% of your losses back makes it less -EV but never +EV. After all if you end up losing money on your session you still lost. How can losing ever be +EV without a jackpot? Jimbo [/ QUOTE ] So I offer to flip a coin with you, and if you lose you pay me $95, and if you win, I'll pay you $100. If you lose, you lost $95. Does that mean it wasn't a +EV situation? |
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