Some thoughts on Josh W.'s post

[ggbman]

First of all, nice post Josh, there were a couple of points you made that i agree with. The main factor in how beatable a game is how people play postflop. (Within reason, we're not talking about 70/50 players here) There are many players who are too loose preflop and can make up postflop through aggressive play and handreading.

However, the point that i think deserves more focus is the long term beatability (i don't think thats a word ? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]) of these games. You see, ever since i have been posting on 2+2, people lament how much more difficult the games are getting. Yes, people are finally tightening up, and the same calibur of play wins less now than it did a year ago. But this is a very silly thing to focus on, and here's why:

I missed the "golden age" of the PP 15-30 where everyone agreed it was a ridiculously soft game, and i always used to be a little ticked that i missed out on that cash mine. What i realized over the last few months, is that poker is a game of adapting. Yes we all know this, but think about just how important it really is. Think about how differently you play in the 15, 20, and 30 games now relative to how you used to play at $1-$2. You natrually adapted your game so you could survive and flourish at the next level. Right now, any 2+2er who focuses exclusively on improving their game and does not concern themselves with the play of others will improve at a rate far faster than their opponents.

This means that your hourly expectation can still be going up while your competition is improving, and this is something a lot of people fail to think about. I think this will continue to be true for quite a while. I don't mean to sound harsh here, but i fear that too many people on these baords give themselves an easy way out by attritbuting difficulties to the improvement of their competition. Yes of course this is a factor, but it's not one you can control. By always doing your best to adapt to the current state of the games, regardless of what they, you have the best chance of maximizing your earn.

Now, what i just said is common knowledge to many of you on this board, so i'm sorry i had to bore you with it. This post might be better suited for Small Stakes where more people have yet to adapt this mindset. However, there was some discussion in Josh's thread about difficult the games might be in X months, etc... so i thought this might have some relevance here. There will a point in the future where people's potential hourly earn is not as high. But who cares about when that is? When it happens, it will happen. And even then, i sure we can all live off A LOT less than we are making now. Just some thoughts thrown together...feel free to conradict me or ignore this post becuase nothing i said is new.

Gabe

[ggbman]

Also, one little addition. Obviously people who are already beating games $100-$200 and higher have less room to improve than their competition, so you guys are all obviously screwed [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[sweetjazz]

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Right now, any 2+2er who focuses exclusively on improving their game and does not concern themselves with the play of others will improve at a rate far faster than their opponents.

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Can you clarify what you mean here? Surely you don't mean that it is not (vitally!) important to observe the tendencies of how others are playing. Are you just saying not to worry whether the quality of the opposition is improving, because you can still stay ahead of the ball by studying and analyzing your own play?

I think there is a lot of merit to that, and it is the way that poker should be approached. I think the concerns about the games getting tougher should not have people getting their panties in a wad and that if you continue to play then you should take the approach that Gabe suggests. However, as games get a bit tougher over time, there will always be players who continuously see their edge slip down and eventually it will reach a danger zone where the edge is small enough that they are at the whims and mercies of the variance gods. It's important that any player be able to assess where on this scale they are, setting their ego aside. For the top players, they are in no danger any time soon. For others though, now might be the time to start working on beating tougher (tighter) games.

In some sense, I think Josh and Gabe are saying the same thing: keep working on improving your game to stay ahead of the competition, which is still very beatable. For 99% of mid/high players (myself included), our next step is a game that seems tough to us now but is, ultimately, very beatable. If you don't work to improve, you won't move up in limits and you will lose gradually see your edge at your current limit decrease. If you continue to work to improve your game, you can move up in limits and also increase your edge over your opponents, even though they are improving as a whole (but at a slower rate than you can if you work hard).

[ggbman]

Sorry, to clarify, of course you should pay VERY close attention to how your competition is playing. What i meant by "don't concern yourself with their play" is see how they are adapting, and then adapt better yourself. Don't be content to say, "this guy got better, my edge is now smaller against him." Make it bigger again.

[sweetjazz]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, to clarify, of course you should pay VERY close attention to how your competition is playing. What i meant by "don't concern yourself with their play" is see how they are adapting, and then adapt better yourself. Don't be content to say, "this guy got better, my edge is now smaller against him." Make it bigger again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool, that is what I thought you meant but just wanted to make sure. I agree with your approach to the game. It is a sad reality that each time you improve your game to the "next level" it is harder than the time before. I think that's the essence of the tired cliche, "Poker is a hard way to make an easy living."

So I think you are right in your advice, and I also think many people won't follow it. You'll see a lot of players go pro because they can beat a certain limit which makes them X per year and then stagnate and try to keep milking that game for X per year. Within a few years, they'll find that they are only making Y per year and in some cases be forced to either jeopardize their bankroll or lower their standard of living to compensate for the reduced earn.

[Nigel]

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For 99% of mid/high players (myself included), our next step is a game that seems tough to us now but is, ultimately, very beatable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which game is that?

[phish]

[ QUOTE ]


I missed the "golden age" of the PP 15-30 where everyone agreed it was a ridiculously soft game, and i always used to be a little ticked that i missed out on that cash mine. What i realized over the last few months, is that poker is a game of adapting. Yes we all know this, but think about just how important it really is. Think about how differently you play in the 15, 20, and 30 games now relative to how you used to play at $1-$2. You natrually adapted your game so you could survive and flourish at the next level. Right now, any 2+2er who focuses exclusively on improving their game and does not concern themselves with the play of others will improve at a rate far faster than their opponents.

This means that your hourly expectation can still be going up while your competition is improving, and this is something a lot of people fail to think about. I think this will continue to be true for quite a while. I don't mean to sound harsh here, but i fear that too many people on these baords give themselves an easy way out by attritbuting difficulties to the improvement of their competition. Yes of course this is a factor, but it's not one you can control. By always doing your best to adapt to the current state of the games, regardless of what they, you have the best chance of maximizing your earn.

Now, what i just said is common knowledge to many of you on this board, so i'm sorry i had to bore you with it. This post might be better suited for Small Stakes where more people have yet to adapt this mindset. However, there was some discussion in Josh's thread about difficult the games might be in X months, etc... so i thought this might have some relevance here. There will a point in the future where people's potential hourly earn is not as high. But who cares about when that is? When it happens, it will happen. And even then, i sure we can all live off A LOT less than we are making now. Just some thoughts thrown together...feel free to conradict me or ignore this post becuase nothing i said is new.

Gabe

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I disagree with one of the main tenets of your post. You seem to believe that there is no 'limit' to the skill level that one can achieve, and hence can, thru diligence and study, always remain two step above your competition.
I believe this is false. I believe that there is a limit to how well one can play, and if all your opponents play close to this limit, then you can never achieve much of an edge over them.
To illustrate what I mean, let's use the extreme example of tic tac toe. Against a 3 year old, you may have an edge and win 2/3 of your games. But it doesn't take much to learn to play that game optimally to the point where no one can win. Now poker is a much more complex game and so it takes a lot longer and much more effort to get close to an optimal level. But this optimal level DOES exist and hence will act as a barrier against maintaining a constant edge over your opponents no matter how good they get.
Are the best players today close to that edge? I don't know. But I do think that there are players today, that no matter how good you get, you will never make much, if any, money off of them long term.
And if you really analyze it, you will find that the VAST majority of your profits come from the really BAD players, not from the good or even mediocre players. (Of course good ring game players may be really BAD short-handed or just total suckers HU)
So I think the question of will it ever dry up is not an academic question. Hopefully, there will always be a fresh supply of fish to replace those who bust out. But always be aware that your earning potential comes much more from these fish than by trying to stay too steps ahead of the next best player in your game.

[CardSharpCook]

I love it when people start new threads instead of replying to an old thread because their thoughts are too important to simply be a reply.

[ggbman]

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I love it when people start new threads instead of replying to an old thread because their thoughts are too important to simply be a reply.

[/ QUOTE ]

Josh's thread was primarily about people's misconeception that tight games are not beatable. The main focus of this thread is obvioulsy something different; i just didn't want to hijak his thread. Are you grumpy becuase you believed my 10-20 WR was 6.71 BB/100? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[CardSharpCook]

I just like being a nit. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]