I'm back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI's

[FatalError]

After taking a few months to work on my cash games due to trips to vegas and other reasons i'm back to 8 tabling, much more heavily bankrolled this time around and playing 200's mainly... I've been giving some thought to irie's signing off post where he posted that he thought 6% was the maximum attainable long term ROI for 200's but i just don't believe this much, i'm running terrible and STILL at 3% over my first 300 8 tabling... 18% 4th place finishes is fun! but anyways... my feeling is at almost any 215 table there are at least 1, usually 2 or 3 players with little to no chance (1-10%) of finishing ITM, with "dead" money like this in the SnG and an assumption that the remaining players are all strategically sound and relatively equal we can derive an expected return over infinity by taking some guesses for the variable amount of dead money

Example 1 - 1 Single Player with NO chance of finishing ITM

9 players share 2000$ which is a 3.4% ROI

Example 2 - 2 Players have a 0% chance of finishing ITM

8 players share 2000$ which is a 16.3% ROI

Example 3 - 3 Players have an 18% chance of finishing ITM each

This is our "practical" example which i think

Each of these players has 120$ of equity in their own buyin

therefore the 7 remaining players share 1640$ worth of the prize pool as equity giving a possible 9% ROI

Now this assumes an even distribution ITM (yours should be weighted towards 1st) and that all the players remaining are of equal caliber, where the average 2+2er is going to be slightly better than other players who might be beating the game for very little

And there it is
now you can see where this is going

[citanul]

I am quite certain that there are very few people who play these games who have a 1% likelihood of finishing itm 1% of the time. There are very few players who even are bad enough to have a 10% itm, and I doubt that they actually would have such statistics over a larger sample than they currently do. Based on that, your calculations, I believe, are going to have some horribly inaccurate results.

citanul

[zambonidrivr]

so do you recommend only playing 100's and 50's? I know the ROI there is much higher and sustainable (IMO). Just quad them baby!

I think Irie's 6 percent is very conservative. Giga said he thinks can get close to 20 percent. ZeeJustin seems to believe he can get at least 12 or 13 longterm, I'm pretty sure Curtains has been beating the 215's for more than 6 percent for quite a while.

Someone that is extremely gifted, intelligent and works really hard at beating the game and constantly improving can have over 6 percent long term ROI. If your the MAN, your edge will come not just from donks, but solid regulars who aren't quite as good as you.

[Newt_Buggs]

didn't really read your post, but 6% is a bogus number.

[raptor517]

can you get 10%+ in the 215s? sure, but not by conventional methods.. it actually requires a bit of poker skill. you must play pots early, pick up uncontested pots, and take some extra risk to get a big stack early. no matter how good you are at playing with high blinds and perfect icm, yer edge isnt near as big there as it used to be. the edge in the 215s+ is early and mid game now. holla

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
didn't really read your post, but 6% is a bogus number.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the long term ROI of the best STT player I know of is likely no greater than ~15% multitabling. 6% isn't that far off what a good player should expect to do.

20%+ is quite possible when running well.

Yugoslav

[BigHobo]

[ QUOTE ]
didn't really read your post, but 6% is a bogus number.

[/ QUOTE ]

6% is definitely too low. I'm north of that and I have more leaks in my game than the titanic. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that some people were beating the $215's for 15%.

Of course, alot depends on what kind of multi-tabling is going on. If somebody is 12-tabling things are probably quite different.

[zambonidrivr]

so multi the $100's as there are more donks?

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
so multi the $100's as there are more donks?

[/ QUOTE ]

can def make more 8 tabling 109s than 4 tabling 215s. holla