How do you guys go on such insane downswings?

[sfer]

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You don't understand math.

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I have a master's degree in it actually, lol.

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I thought you were a lawyer?

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My theory! Give proper credit.

[MarkL444]

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I honestly cannot understand it. Every day on this site I see some story about a 200+ BB downswing. How does this happen to so many supposedly good players? Do you tilt away 100BB? Start playing scared? Exagerate?

I've played poker for about 6 years and had one downswing of over 150BB. My pro friends almost never have a 200+ downswing (i.e., like once a decade). I understand variance, and I play a LOT. Maybe I am just insanely lucky, or maybe I just don't tilt away money when I am running poorly. But it's gotten to the point where I barely come here anymore because of the depression/paranoia that all the downswing posts threaten to generate. Before coming here, I was honestly under the impression that a really bad downswing almost never happens to an expert player, and that when it does it's really major stuff (like Doyle's).

Anyways, I'd like some thoughts on why do many players on here seem to hit major downswings so often. I have a theory (being too tight and slightly weak magnifies downswings greatly), but I'd like more opinions.

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some players look for any small edge and go for it. if that edge means risking a few bets they do it. look at a recent post by 1800 gambler where he c/r's the turn with unders. this leads to high variance and inevitably, downswings.

[Nigel]

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Raising here folded out everyone nearly every time

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With your 3% PFR, I too would be folding nearly every time you raised.

[Guthrie]

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Yep, Guthrie you have a fundamental flaw in your thinking about pre-flop raising. Sounds like you won't be persuaded though.

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Persuade me. Tell me which of those hands that I limped or folded that I should have raised. I'm not trying to argue that what I'm doing is correct. I started off using the SSHE charts and then started raising any otherwise limping hand from the last three positions if no one has already limped. If there is some new strategy I'm not aware of, I'd love to hear it. Tell me which of those hands I should have raised.

How those raises will get calling stations to fold, or change the cards to come is another story, but if anyone can tell me which additional hands I should be raising I'll be happy to give it a shot.

[Guthrie]

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Raising here folded out everyone nearly every time

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With your 3% PFR, I too would be folding nearly every time you raised.

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Look at the list of starting hands from that session and tell me which additional ones you would have raised.

Good grief, people, my normal PFR isn't 3%. It was just at this table. The whole [censored] point was that tables like this come along all to often and kill you. Are you suggesting that I should throw in an additional 50BB raising junk hands so that I can squeeze another bet or two out of of the occasional premium hand?

These donks have no idea what my PFR is and could care less. They pay no attention to who has raised preflop. They don't even understand the concept. If they have any ace, any pair, any draw, they'll call. If they don't they might fold.

I'm guessing that much of your play is B&M rather than on-line which can make a big difference. On-line tends to be much more aggressive and much less predictable, which can significantly increase short-term variance.

Virtually all of the "top" posters on this site have had 300+BB downswings, which indicates that tilt is probably not the reason.

[shadow29]

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How those raises will get calling stations to fold, or change the cards to come is another story, but if anyone can tell me which additional hands I should be raising I'll be happy to give it a shot.

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You don't want the calling stations to fold. I think here you reveal the fallacy which contributes to your sub-optimal play. Your hands have an equity edge against the hands the calling stations play. Thus, you should raise AJo because it is an awesome hand vis a vis the hand of the calling station. Of course you won't make money every time you play this hand for a raise, but over time you will. Over time, the equity edge that your hands have over poor players' hands will make you money. Any time that you find that you have an equity edge, the more bets that go into the pot make you more money.

[Guthrie]

I understand that. By raising to push people out I was referring to post-flop play.

Now feel free to look over the list of starting hands I posted and tell me which additional hands I should have raised. Everybody keeps telling me to raise more, but nobody wants to tell me which hands to raise. Which of those hands that I limped or folded has an equity edge that makes them worth raising?

My whole point here, in response to the OP's question to how people go through such huge downswings, is that there are periods in which there are not enough hands worth playing, much less raising, and those that do get played either win small pots, or get sucked out on in large pots, resulting in the downswing.

I posted the stats from just such a session, and people keep piling on, without bothering to look at the results from the session in question, telling me that 3% PFR is too low and that I should raise more preflop. Great. That's not my normal PFR, but for those who read the 3% and ignored the rest of the post, then go through the list of starting hands FROM THAT SESSION and tell me which additional hands should be raised.

I don't think that there are that many, but lots of people here apparently seem convinced that if I started raising 72o from MP3 that my game would magically improve. I have substantial doubts, but I'm willing to be convinced. Convince me.

[stillbr]

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I play 6 max limit, which is very swingy. Here is an excerpt from what must be some of the craziest 12k hands ever. Note the 200BB upswing in less than 1500 hands, which was all lost back in the next 1000, finally bottoming out at a 350 BB downswing. And that ultra steep line at 11k? Try 290BB in 170 hands.

Anyone who doesn't experience these type of swings must be playing an uber-rockish game, or playing so successfully that he'd be better off moving up a level (or two).



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Is no one else completely amaized by that 290bb upswing in less than 200 hands.

[flair1239]

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For me personally, on of the biggest leaks in my game right now is losing too many bets with good second-best hands. Since having a lot of those situations in a short period of time is almost always part of a downswing, it tends to exacerbate my downswings while not really affecting me much when the cards are running normally.

I suspect this is also true of a lot of other 2+2ers.

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I think this sums it up nicely.