$109: Is this a Bluff?!?

[MSUcougar]

NL Texas Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Trny:15802265 Level:3 Blinds(25/50) - Friday, September 16, 22:32:24 EDT 2005
Table Table 11709 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 4: HERO ( $1080 )
Seat 10: ( $910 )
Seat 9: ( $885 )
Seat 3: VILLAIN ( $2035 )
Seat 5: ( $1360 )
Seat 1: ( $1215 )
Seat 6: ( $640 )
Seat 2: ( $620 )
Seat 8: ( $1255 )
Trny:15802265 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Qs Jc ]
folds.
folds.
folds.
folds.
folds.
calls [50].
calls [50].
VILLAIN calls [25].
HERO checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, 8s, 4s ] (POT 200)
VILLAIN checks.
HERO bets [85].
folds.
folds.
VILLAIN calls [85].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6h ] (POT 370)
VILLAIN checks.
HERO bets [200].
VILLAIN calls [200].
** Dealing River ** [ Kd ] (POT 770)
VILLAIN bets [700].
HERO ????


No prior reads, but villain took a LONG time thinking before making the river bet. My stack on the river was 745.

Call or fold?

[Maulik]

it seems like he's using his stacksize in relation to the pot to push you off a hand with the river scare card. with high reliability I'd assume its a bluff.

this looks like a bluff to me, but why didnt you bet at least 3/4 the pot on the flop?

that flop bet looks like its begging to get pushed off a hand, IMO.

[Hendricks433]

Porbally. I probally woulda made some sort of blocking bet on the river. But I dont plat $109's so my opinion might be irrelevant.

[viennagreen]

i play the 109s and if i made this bet, 80% of the time it wouldn't be a bluff.

i make a lot of overbets and big river bets with good hands, and have a lot of success with it.

plus-- the "long time thinking" is a non factor if you are playing against a multi-tabler, which many of the 109 players are.

[microbet]

If long time thinking means anything, I would think it would indicate that it wasn't a bluff.

[schwza]

my guess is that he had a very strong hand like a set and worried that the overcard would make you check behind. i'd give it up.

I think your usually beat here unless the 109s have more tricky players in them than I think they do. I mean seriously, does the average 109 player have bluffing in this spot in their repertoire?

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
Porbally. I probally woulda made some sort of blocking bet on the river. But I dont plat $109's so my opinion might be irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your opinion is irrelevant because it makes no sense.

[The Don]

Seems too big to be a value bet. If I knew I had the best hand I would bet 250-300. Unless villian knows that you are a very good player I don't think he would bet your whole stack for value. That leads me to believe that it is a bluff since he is most likely a random and has little info on you (speculation of course).

It is likely he missed one of the 2 flush draws and got greedy here. It is also likely he hit his king (FD+1 over draw) and is making this bet so he won't have to make any decisions later on in the action. Very tough hand but overall I just don't think you have the best hand enough to make this call profitable.