Call, Raise, or Fold the flop?

[helpmeout]

I value your overcard outs at least 1.5 each probably 2 each if you raise.

BD flush at 1.5 and gutshot at 3.5 (I normally count these as more because you make up a lot of ground with implied odds)

Thats 8 outs IMO

I think you are undervaluing by a lot.

You cant not count any spade as an out because someone will have a flush a small percent of the time 50% at most.

[BugsBunny]

I think you're giving credit for too many outs here. I think the correct number is somewhere between 5 and 6. The backdoor I count as 1. The 7's are 3 (no more than that because one of the 7's is also part of the backdoor flush + redraw potential for a flush). Overcards in this case I wouldn't count too high. so maybe 2 outs for the overcards, 3 at best.

That gives 5 as a very conservative estimate and 7 as a high estimate. I think valuing the flush at .75 is too low. Flushes lose to other flushes rarely. Backdoor flushes, when they come in, lose to a higher backdoor flush even more rarely. That's because few people chase pure backdoor flushes in the first place.

The overcards are suspect, especially the 9 (98 is a very possible hand for someone to be playing) + add in the possibility of redraws.

I think folding this hand is CLEARLY wrong. You simply give up too much by folding these types of hands. However the comments about someone putting you on a flush draw and betting into you on the turn do have validity to them. Ultimately the decision on whether to raise or call comes down to what you think the chances of getting a free card are. The more people in the hand the less likely a free card is (for one thing the more people the more likely the turn will hit someone).

So ultimately I still think it's a close decision, dependent on:
1) Chances of being 3 bet on the flop
2) Chances of getting a free card

Note that if the players in the game like to be "tricky" (c/r at the wrong time) your chances are better, since now - even if they have a hand - they'll call the flop and check the turn planning to "trap" you with their ultra-tricky c/r move.

So the real question is how to play against mostly unknowns (often the case, especially when multi-tabling). With the aggression levels (and better post-flop play) at something like 10/20 I suspect a flat call is probably correct in the majority of cases. At 5/10 (where this hand was played) the players tend to be more passive and worse postflop (as a whole, there are exceptions) so a raise may be more effective. But I think it's close.

[Danenania]

I would raise preflop. On the flop I can see either raising or calling--both have merit.

[Rostioff]

I agree largely with what you've said and perhaps valued many of the outs a bit too low. I think a call may be correct, but a raise seems to be a terrible idea. With no spades, your hand looses tons of value. If you raise the flop for a free card, a spade on the turn nearly kills your hand. I don't think many of the players realize the weakness this hand suffers as a result of the two flush, as well as the devaluation of the overcard outs due to that flush and the coordinated nature of the board if they hit them. Thanks for your perspective though.

[K C]

You got lucky here of course [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I'm going to say that it's either a raise or a fold at the flop, and it depends on the type of player you're up against. Is he the type who will fold under pressure, or is he likely to call you down to keep you honest. What sort of hands would he bet here, and how often does he bluff? You're forced to a bluff yourself if you stay in this hand though, since you don't really have anything at this point.

KC
http://kingcobrapoker.com

[FishyWhale]

Calls. Your additional backdoor outs plus your position make this an easy call.