Commission Coach Play - A Full Report (long)

[OnlinePokerCoach]

I am sorry to hear about your losses. That is a lot of money to lose, especially if you were used to playing lower limits.

How will you be proceeding from here?

Best regards,
OnlinePokerCoach

[O Doyle Rules]

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are you and your coach choosing wild games? if you are, you might want to try other games and see if the results improve. game selection is very important, and vary depending on your goals and risk tolerance.

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I had planned on trying to play a risk averse game and attempt not to push too many marginal situations. On the flip side of that, I was playing in the looser rooms and many times this was against LAGS. The following screen shot points out that many of the top winners in my database were on the loose/passive or loose aggressive side:

(12 out of the 19 top winner's V$IP was higher than the average and 14 out of the top 19 winners were more agressive than average. Only 2 of the 19 top winners could be defined as tight aggressive.)

[O Doyle Rules]

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How will you be proceeding from here?


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Hey Coach,

The plan at the moment is to take a short hiatus from playing the 15/30 game, (maybe up to 2 weeks) and further analyze my play.

My coach has not thrown in the towel (which speaks well for him since I got a big hole to get out of before I turn profitable) and is working with me to help further tweak my play. And naturally the point of posting this it gain from the vast pool of knowledge of this fourm.

[slavic]

(12 out of the 19 top winner's V$IP was higher than the average and 14 out of the top 19 winners were more agressive than average. Only 2 of the 19 top winners could be defined as tight aggressive.)

O'Doyle-

This is not suprising at all given your small sample size. These players standard deviation is much higher than a Tight aggressive player. Add in that there are more players that fit this catagory, over a short period of time what we consider bad play will post some sizable wins.

If you want a book reference see TPFAP p137 "Why the First Day Leader at the WSOP Never Wins". Sklansky is talking about tourney play but the same concept applies.

[stoxtrader]

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O'Doyle-

This is not suprising at all given your small sample size. These players standard deviation is much higher than a Tight aggressive player. Add in that there are more players that fit this catagory, over a short period of time what we consider bad play will post some sizable wins.

If you want a book reference see TPFAP p137 "Why the First Day Leader at the WSOP Never Wins". Sklansky is talking about tourney play but the same concept applies.

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slavic beat me to it. In any short period, the highest variance play will generally produce the highest winners, AND the highest losers. I would be interested to see that same sort you did by highest losers.

[O Doyle Rules]

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O'Doyle-

This is not suprising at all given your small sample size. These players standard deviation is much higher than a Tight aggressive player. Add in that there are more players that fit this catagory, over a short period of time what we consider bad play will post some sizable wins.

If you want a book reference see TPFAP p137 "Why the First Day Leader at the WSOP Never Wins". Sklansky is talking about tourney play but the same concept applies.

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slavic beat me to it. In any short period, the highest variance play will generally produce the highest winners, AND the highest losers. I would be interested to see that same sort you did by highest losers.

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Hey Stox,

You and slavic are quite correct. This screen shot bears out exactly what you are saying. (Except fot that poor slob on the bottom aka the biggest loser that is trying to play a tight aggressive game and the rock with a VP$IP at 11.02, all the rest are playing a high variance style. This is definitely not a list I am happy being on, especially being on the bottom by such a large margin.)



Holy crap! I gotta being running bad!

[illguitar]

In all honesty I haven't read all of the posts so I don't know if the suggestions that I give will be new or not. Aside from that, I mean this only to help you as I could care less what the critics will say about reading all of the posts before entering my opinion. If I repeat, just treat it as second sentiments towards the ideas of other posters.

That said, looking at your stats and reading your statements, I have a very strong inkling that you have been running bad. In all honesty 7k hands is not enough to get a read on how you are playing. If...you are truly devestated by these losses, I mean monetarily more than emotionally (although the emotions of it apply as well), I would suggest moving down in limits. Even if you are on a bad run of cards, it may help you to face lesser competition. However, if you are not truly devestated monetarily by this it may be a blow to your confidence to regress in competition. I would suggest doing exactly what you say, take some time off and reassess your game.

While you are examining your play, look at two things very thoroughly- Why are you losing SO much money in the blinds? Are you playing too many hands? Too few? Taking them too far?
Are you playing as aggressively as you should be? From your stats I see a slightly weak-tight tendency at play. This may not be true, but when I look at your stats I see you calling a lot of raises instead of betting yourself. Taking hands too far and folding too much in big pots are the two biggest ways to lose money in Texas Hold em. While this is a bit of a Catch 22, my suggestion would be make sure you have a legitimate hand when calling raises, and frequently raising and reraising yourself. Only however with the cream of the crop hands. Remember that just because Pocket Aces are the best hand before the flop, it doesn't mean that they are the best hand on the flop and beyond. Your losses with these high pocket pairs, as well as your wins with Big Suited Connecters, seems to suggest to me that you are chasing hands. Be aggressive with your big pp's, but be ready to back off and let them go if there is trouble. This of course could also be attributed to a bad run of cards as discussed earlier. As far as not folding in big pots, once you get there, to the showdown...call, at least. There is no more painful feeling in the world then laying down the winner prematurely on the river. There is also nothing so costly.

As I have been writing this I have been playing in a few games, so hopefully the flow is okay and what I said has actually made sense. Feel free to criticize and inform me of inaccuracies. I just wanted to throw some ideas out there for you. Some of the advice almost certainly seems to contradict other advice, but so goes poker! There is no absolute correct decision, only situations, experiences, and feelings. You have to take all of the advice you get with a grain of salt and remember that it can be a winning play in some situations, and a big loser in others. Go wiht your gut and your experiences!!!

Two last thoughts before I say good luck...Have you considered no limit? Playing in higher limit NL can be difficult and require different skills, but sometimes players, like myself are MUCH more successful in NL ring games. Also...how many games do you play??? If you are multi-tabling, this is the first thing that I would get rid of. At least reduce. That's it. Hopefully it has been helpful at least somewhat, I myself am relatively new to the game. I hope that you can turn this around and that you find the answers you need to become successful.

GOOD LUCK!!!

Daver

PS- You said you went in confident. Confidence is key, however overconfidence can be deadly to your bankroll. I'm sure that these experiences have put your confidence in the gutter. Remember to be confident! Remember to play confidently, but also remain humble. Humility can be a saving grace.

[TimM]

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Holy crap! I gotta being running bad!

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Sort by BB/100, then you won't feel as bad.

[illguitar]

Be sure to post updates on your progress!!! I will be interested. Thanks. Good luck

[randomchamp]

I agree about the game selection comment. When I first started playing online I would just look at the stats and jump in the "best game". Now that I "know" all the regulars I avoid them like the Bubonic Plague. I spend more time watching than playing, but when I play my profits are much better than they used to be when I was a multi-table - play tons of hours whore......