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#12
10-21-2005, 11:31 AM
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Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
[ QUOTE ]
Fold. If we assume AA-JJ, AK and AQs as the starting hand then we are ahead the following %-age of the time: Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8 In front of: AQs = 4 4/31 = 13%. 13% would in itself justify to continue. But since this is just the flop, we would most often pay some big bets to get to showdown. And even if he have AQ he still have 6 outs twice. ------------- Lets try the same, but this time we expand his card range to include AQo. Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8 In front of: AQo = 16 16/43 = 37% !! This would be a calldown i would think. Lets say you have 30% equity (due to his 6 outs). And we assume he bets all way and you call him down. The pot would be 11.75 at showdown where you had to pay 2,5 to call him down. You expect to win 30% of the pot = 3.5. And you had to pay 2,5. EV: 3,5-2,5 = 1. --------- Based on these calculations it seems like a calldown is in place if you suspect him to have AQx in his likely pf capping range. Did I screw this up? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Any AQ combination still has 13 outs going to the river. Hearts has even more. 
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#13
10-21-2005, 11:36 AM
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Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Fold. If we assume AA-JJ, AK and AQs as the starting hand then we are ahead the following %-age of the time: Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8 In front of: AQs = 4 4/31 = 13%. 13% would in itself justify to continue. But since this is just the flop, we would most often pay some big bets to get to showdown. And even if he have AQ he still have 6 outs twice. ------------- Lets try the same, but this time we expand his card range to include AQo. Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8 In front of: AQo = 16 16/43 = 37% !! This would be a calldown i would think. Lets say you have 30% equity (due to his 6 outs). And we assume he bets all way and you call him down. The pot would be 11.75 at showdown where you had to pay 2,5 to call him down. You expect to win 30% of the pot = 3.5. And you had to pay 2,5. EV: 3,5-2,5 = 1. --------- Based on these calculations it seems like a calldown is in place if you suspect him to have AQx in his likely pf capping range. Did I screw this up? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Any AQ combination still has 13 outs going to the river. Hearts has even more. [/ QUOTE ] Well, i did adjust for this by reducing the equity from 37 to 30. Maybe itīs not enough?
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#14
10-21-2005, 11:42 AM
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Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Fold. If we assume AA-JJ, AK and AQs as the starting hand then we are ahead the following %-age of the time: Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8 In front of: AQs = 4 4/31 = 13%. 13% would in itself justify to continue. But since this is just the flop, we would most often pay some big bets to get to showdown. And even if he have AQ he still have 6 outs twice. ------------- Lets try the same, but this time we expand his card range to include AQo. Behind: AA+KK+QQ+JJ+AK = 6+1+6+6+8 In front of: AQo = 16 16/43 = 37% !! This would be a calldown i would think. Lets say you have 30% equity (due to his 6 outs). And we assume he bets all way and you call him down. The pot would be 11.75 at showdown where you had to pay 2,5 to call him down. You expect to win 30% of the pot = 3.5. And you had to pay 2,5. EV: 3,5-2,5 = 1. --------- Based on these calculations it seems like a calldown is in place if you suspect him to have AQx in his likely pf capping range. Did I screw this up? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Any AQ combination still has 13 outs going to the river. Hearts has even more. [/ QUOTE ] Well, i did adjust for this by reducing the equity from 37 to 30. Maybe itīs not enough? [/ QUOTE ] Oh, I didn't see this was a calculation on the flop. Given the turn J, and expanding the range to include TT and AJ, wouldn't this be a clear fold?
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#15
10-21-2005, 11:42 AM
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Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
for those who say fold the flop, this is the exact reason why i cap light sometimes if i'm ever caught opening light. so suppose i had 88 here, i would sometimes cap hoping to get hands like QQ-TT to fold on ugly Ace high boards.
the extra sb you invest preflop may help you steal the whole pot postflop and also might be for pure value if you're getting 3-bet by overcards.
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#18
10-21-2005, 11:48 AM
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Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
[ QUOTE ]
Do you think his postflop play was spew? [/ QUOTE ] i think in order of correct flop decisions is call/raise/fold if thats what you meant.
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#19
10-21-2005, 11:50 AM
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Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
[ QUOTE ]
So are you saying Hero shouldn't fold the flop CDC, or that villain's play would be good with 88 because Hero needs to fold the flop here? [/ QUOTE ] i'm saying hero definitely should not fold the flop. at least wait to see what happens on the turn before giving up if you have to.
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#20
10-21-2005, 11:50 AM
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Re: 99 vs 65/11/2
[ QUOTE ]
The pot would be 11.75 at showdown where you had to pay 2,5 to call him down. [/ QUOTE ] It looks to me like you're counting the 2.5 bets we invest here in the 11.75 bets that we win. Those are a cost and not a profit.
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