Gamble?

jibosh · #1 05-24-2005, 10:23 AM

Playing a $50 tourney on pokerroom Monday. 178 entrants, 30 paid. I'm in 10th of 24 remaining. Blinds 400/800 (No ante).

I recently ran my chip stack from 3k to 12k through a bunch of steals and a double up with AA vs. AJ. I have raised 3x BB about 15 times in the last 6 or 7 orbits, and have not been called once (I once laid down to a re-raise).

It's folded to me on the button, and I raise to 2400 with JTo. SB thinks and goes all in for 13k, BB folds.

Playing with SB since the start of the tournament I put his range on anything from a complete steal, to an AK type hand or even medium-high pockets. Basically my read was he didn't have to be strong to make this move.

My thoughts:
I have odds to call vs. his range of hands, and a double would get me very close to chip lead, however I have been stealing at least twice an orbit, and if I fold I still have about 10BB. The payout structure makes it so I am definately playing for top 3. From a meta-game standpoint, if I call and win, I think people will think twice about playing back at me next time I steal.

Whats my move?

jibosh · #2 05-24-2005, 10:58 AM

bump

flopquints · #3 05-24-2005, 11:03 AM

but he's putting you in right? If he is, I hate calling here. If you had him outchipped by 3k-5k i would do it, but i also get sleepy at the end of MTTs and don't think too straight.

jibosh · #4 05-24-2005, 11:09 AM

Yeah, he had me barely outchipped.

If it matters, I considered myself a better player.

tiger7210 · #5 05-24-2005, 11:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If it matters, I considered myself a better player

[/ QUOTE ]

You may want to re-evaluate this thought if you are even considering calling off all your chips on J high.

jibosh · #6 05-24-2005, 11:46 AM

haha good one.

schwza · #7 05-24-2005, 11:08 AM

this looks like a pretty easy fold. there's 5.6k in dead money and you have to call 9.6k, so you have to be ~39% to win.

you're barely getting the neccesary odds to call against 22 (and you're reluctant to gamble). you're not getting odds against a hand like AQ. and it's a disaster if he has AJ-QJ / AT-QT, and a super disaster if he has JJ+. the only way you can make this call is if you think there is a fairly high chance that you're ahead.

you've been caught with your hand in the proverbial cookie jar. don't compound it with a call.

jibosh · #8 05-24-2005, 11:14 AM

I guess thats the part I'm confused about. While I thought there was a reasonable chance I was ahead (stone cold bluff), or flipping with lower pocket pair, I can't be sure of his holding because it is so wide.

From purely a chip EV point of view, am I supposed to instantly run a pokerstove vs. all his possible holdings? And also why am I necessarily risk adverse at this stage in the tourney? I have been accumulating chips, which is good, but I am still in 10th place which is only 3x buyin payout, and I want first which is a 40x buyin payout.

schwza · #9 05-24-2005, 11:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I guess thats the part I'm confused about. While I thought there was a reasonable chance I was ahead (stone cold bluff), or flipping with lower pocket pair, I can't be sure of his holding because it is so wide.

[/ QUOTE ]

Q7o is 50/50 vs. a random hand. i couldn't find the website, but i'd imagine JTo is about 52%. so even if he is reraising literally every single time, your edge is not that big. and he's usually going to fold junk hands, no matter how aggro you think he is. remember a "coinflip" is not really - you're only 46% against 99, a scant 7 percentage points better than you need. so folding against 99 is barely wrong, whereas calling KT is wayyyy wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
And also why am I necessarily risk adverse at this stage in the tourney? I have been accumulating chips, which is good, but I am still in 10th place which is only 3x buyin payout, and I want first which is a 40x buyin payout.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're risk averse here because you're basically always risk averse in a tournament. if the tourney was winner-take-all, you'd be risk-neutral, but with gradual payouts, there is an incentive to survive.

jibosh · #10 05-24-2005, 11:36 AM

Thanks...

As for the risk-aversion, I guess I was looking at it from the point of view that $89 payout is ~= $105 ~= $145
so I should be risk neutral, but I was stealing blinds so regularily that I should have folded. However, I really wanted the first place prize I called, he flipped over J9 suited (woo), flop came 89x (boo), no help, and I bust.