magic numbers

[jdl22]

Now that there are 10 games left for several teams and in an effort to put off doing my reading for class tomorrow I thought I would provide a public service by putting down all the pertinent magic numbers. Numbers given are to win the division/wild card outright. I'm only considering teams at 5 gb or less. Others are basically eliminated though mathematically any team 10 or less back isn't out of it just yet.

AL East:
Yankees - 11
Red Sox - 12

AL Central:
White Sox - 9
Indians - 14

AL West:
Angels - 9
Athletics - 14

NL East:
Braves - 6
Phillies - 16

NL Central:
Cardinals have clinched division

NL West:
Padres - 7
Giants - 17

Wild Card:
this is more complicated because there are tons of scenarios. There probably is some fancy algorithm one could use but I'll just list the magic number versus reasonable competitors. To get at least the wild card a team has to get the magic number to zero against one team from each of the other two divisions. Divisions are separated by a colon.
AL:
White Sox - 9 Yankees 8 Red Sox: 7 Angels 4 A's
Indians - 11 Yankees 10 Red Sox: 9 Angels 6 A's
Yankees - 15 White Sox 12 Indians: 10 Angels 7 A's
Red Sox - 15 White Sox 12 Indians: 10 Angels 7 A's
Angels - 17 White Sox 14 Indians: 14 Yankees 13 Red Sox
A's - 19 White Sox 16 Indians: 16 Yankees 15 Red Sox

NL:
Because I've getting tired and lazy I'll assume Atlanta has won the division. If they have a meltdown large enough to blow a five game lead with 10 to go they are probably screwed as Houston are a game up on Philly who would have caught them. For these teams to get the wild card they have to get the magic number to zero against all of the competitors.
Astros - 9 Phillies 7 Marlins 5 Nationals
Phillies - 13 Astros 9 Marlins 7 Nationals
Marlins - 15 Astros 13 Phillies 9 Nationals
Nationals - 17 Astros 15 Phillies 13 Marlins

The Angels and A's are pretty much eliminated from the wild card barring a collapse by the Indians and either Boston or New York. Pretty much a two horse race in the NL.

Should be pretty easy to update so I'll probably do that every night or perhaps the next morning.

[SammyKid11]

[ QUOTE ]
as Houston are a game up on Philly

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, just in the spirit of accuracy, Houston's two games up on the Phillies.

[jdl22]

indeed, that actually improves my argument. I should have fudged the numbers the other way [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[jdl22]

Since the last thread got such overwhelming response here's an update:
AL East:
Yankees - 10
Red Sox - 12

AL Central:
White Sox - 9
Indians - 12

AL West:
Angels - 8
Athletics - 14

NL East:
Braves - 6
Phillies - 14

NL Central:
Cardinals have clinched division

NL West:
Padres - 6
Giants - 16

AL Wild Card:
White Sox - 9 Yankees 8 Red Sox: 7 Angels 4 A's
Indians - 10 Yankees 9 Red Sox: 8 Angels 5 A's
Yankees - 13 White Sox 11 Indians: 9 Angels 6 A's
Red Sox - 14 White Sox 12 Indians: 10 Angels 7 A's
Angels - 15 White Sox 13 Indians: 13 Yankees 12 Red Sox
A's - 18 White Sox 16 Indians: 16 Yankees 15 Red Sox

NL Wild Card:
Astros - 8 Phillies 6 Marlins 4 Nationals
Phillies - 12 Astros 8 Marlins 6 Nationals
Marlins - 14 Astros 12 Phillies 8 Nationals
Nationals - 16 Astros 14 Phillies 12 Marlins