Two Turn Checks vs. NemesisXX

[Danenania]

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1 is hot.

For 2, let me see if I can guess your reasoning. You don't bet flop because MP is loose and aggro and will often raise you with nothing or call.

You hit a Q sweet. You are wondering why the aggro MP didn't bet the flop and fear he might have an ace. If not there's a good chance he'll bluff it this time around. If you are ahead these guys are probably drawing pretty slim and the pot is small.

Nemesis bets the river. Hmm. I'm not exactly sure what he could have here. I don't think he would value bet a 6 or a 7 here. I think he would instead induce a bluff from the aggro button. I would also guess that he would bet a 6 or 7 on the flop or turn a lot (well I guess that's what I think a good player would do. Maybe not Nemesis...). Therefore I think his most likely hand is a bluff or an ace that went for a checkraise on the turn for some reason. Therefore I would call.

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Yep, this was pretty much my thinking on the turn check. For the river raise, would it change your mind if I told you she called with K6o in the first hand? Also I'm not sure she's sophisticated enough to check an Ace or a big hand again on this turn because she strongly tends towards fastplays and pounding. However it's also pretty unlikely for her to check the turn with a 6, 7, Q, or PP. My thought was that I almost certainly had her beat, and there was some chance she'd make a bad payoff with something like K or Q high so I might as well raise since MP is never overcalling.

[TStoneMBD]

hi dane. dont like them.

in hand 1 flop call is good, but bet the turn. hes overaggro and hes not folding a 3. there are gonna be times when he checkraises the turn with a 2 and youre losing value since you could 3bet. a good player should be checking the river quite a bit with a 3 in that spot.

hand 2 i see no reason whatsoever to check the turn. bet and take it down. river is a good value raise.

[Lmn55d]

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For the river raise, would it change your mind if I told you she called with K6o in the first hand?

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Yea, it does actually. I like the raise a lot more. If she bet/called with K high there maybe she call with some random here as well. She's definitely calling a pair if she has one.

[Danenania]

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hi dane. dont like them.

in hand 1 flop call is good, but bet the turn. hes overaggro and hes not folding a 3. there are gonna be times when he checkraises the turn with a 2 and youre losing value since you could 3bet. a good player should be checking the river quite a bit with a 3 in that spot.

hand 2 i see no reason whatsoever to check the turn. bet and take it down. river is a good value raise.

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Hey Tstone. In hand 1 I'm pretty sure this player wouldn't be checking the turn with a 2 or 3. She might with an Ace but I still think she usually bets it. She's a pounder--I've never seen her use the screwplay before. So I think she has air here a high percentage of the time.

For hand 2, you see no reason to check, but I see no reason to bet. Nemesis almost always has dick and MP will bet himself if he picked up any sort of draw that he'd call with. In a pot so small isn't it worth more to force mistakes than to take it down? Plus in addition to letting them make a mistake by bluffing I'm also likely to be payed on the river if it gets checked through and someone picks up a pair. Thoughts?

[mperich]

Edit: FWIW to the rest of the posters I have nem's wtsd at 46% over a pretty big sample, so she will call down with any piece.

I like them. Hand 2 I dont mind a bet either but a check is probably a littttle better. Nemesis is horrible and I really cant figure out how she is able to multitable 10/20 and 15/30 and win. I guess online poker is pretty easy to beat after all.

-Mike

[climber]

is she really a 2+2 er's wife--thats the old rumor i heard?

[cartman]

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Postflop read is overaggro and pays off way too often. Grossly overplays TP/overpairs and bluffs a lot even in spots that look obvious (ie induced bluffs). Commonly 3-bets turn with A-high or a draw. Also calls rivers with A-high or worse in many spots where opponent clearly can't be bluffing.

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I wouldn't check a real hand on the turn on an 8 high board heads up against a player fitting this description in a million years. In my opinion she will find a reason to call even if she has nothing. Of course you will take it down and win nothing sometimes, but she will also spew with or without an actual hand sometimes. Giving yourself the chance to win a bunch of chips by betting the turn seems worth the risk of making her fold.

I like hand 2. It is pretty clear that Nemesis has nothing when she checks the turn and that MP has either a little or a lot except for the few times that he turned a better Queen. I think it is good to give him the chance to bet. Raising the river is best I think because MP can't really call and Nemesis has you beat almost never.

Where is my thinking wrong about Hand 1?

Thanks,
Cartman

[Danenania]

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Postflop read is overaggro and pays off way too often. Grossly overplays TP/overpairs and bluffs a lot even in spots that look obvious (ie induced bluffs). Commonly 3-bets turn with A-high or a draw. Also calls rivers with A-high or worse in many spots where opponent clearly can't be bluffing.

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I wouldn't check a real hand on the turn on an 8 high board heads up against a player fitting this description in a million years. In my opinion she will find a reason to call even if she has nothing. Of course you will take it down and win nothing sometimes, but she will also spew with or without an actual hand sometimes. Giving yourself the chance to win a bunch of chips by betting the turn seems worth the risk of making her fold.

I like hand 2. It is pretty clear that Nemesis has nothing when she checks the turn and that MP has either a little or a lot except for the few times that he turned a better Queen. I think it is good to give him the chance to bet. Raising the river is best I think because MP can't really call and Nemesis has you beat almost never.

Where is my thinking wrong about Hand 1?

Thanks,
Cartman

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I don't believe your thinking about hand 1 is wrong. It seems like we are operating under different assumptions. Based on my read of her tendencies, I believe her most likely holding to be air, and though she does spew in some spots, I think once she checks that turn it means she's given up her bluff, and will always be folding if I bet. However I can change this by checking the turn--it will often change her mind and cause her to bluff again... or give her a pair that she'll probably bet/call with.

Against an unknown or more of a standard fishy lag you'd be spot on that checking the turn is a mistake. Here it's only a mistake if I've misread Nemesis. That's why I included her ID, so others could comment on whether my read of her is accurate or not.

[spydog]

Hand 1:

If Nemesis overplays TP and pounds early and often and will often take mediocre hands to showdown, then why not raise the flop? I know you are asking for UTG to make a donation to the pot, but it's likely his donation will only be 1 SB at best. Nemesis won't fold to the flop raise and might even 3-bet. If he calls then hits his K or 6 on the turn he might checkraise, allowing you to clean his pockets.

[Victor]

fwiw, nemesis has won the most money off me of all opponents.