Tricky Hand for HUSH Final Days

[Chobohoya]

I know it's been said, but raise the flop.

Given the action of the actualy hand, I would say fold the turn. Your meagre outs and terrible reverse implied odds make it pretty clear in my mind.

Baron, would you mind giving more thoughts on why you call the turn?

As for the river, betting is very bad. He's going to bet any hand he would have called with, and he's going to raise you lots too. Your bet has no value, which further underscores folding the turn.

[Jeff W]

Also, I think it's important to note that SB is rarely going to have a better hand here, but his presence does make the set combinations for Mr. 35/25/1.5 less likely. When an unknown(read: someone who isn't a regular) at 20/40 plays a hand like this, most of the time they are going to be completely full of [censored].

[Lmn55d]

Jeff I noticed you included some hands containing the K of diamonds in your range for button. Hero holds the K of diamonds.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
Jeff I noticed you included some hands containing the K of diamonds in your range for button. Hero holds the K of diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I give up. You win, pokerstove. I know better than to post this early in the morning.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
I like raising the flop, as it will put a ton of pressure on button to fold his overcards, even though he probably has odds to call (as long as he doesn't have a king).

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple points about the reasoning behind my flop call.

1.) Making overcards fold. Which overcards am I worried about? Which can I make fold on the flop? KQ/KJ with 7 outs against me are going nowehere on the flop but will most likely fold to a turn raise. AK only has 3 outs against me so I'm not too worried about letting that see a turn card especially when it's so obvious that he's improved with it. AQ is more of a problem with the 6 outs + backdoor but is AQ alone worth foregoing the chance to make KQ/KJ fold? Not sure but I'm sure it seems close.

2.) Information: calling clearly allows me to gauge the strength of each opponent's hand and I can fold easily for two bets if button raises and SB reraises behind him. If I raise and one of the two 3-bets behind me I will be roped into continuing with no idea how live my outs are. Improving on the turn could be a reverse implied odds nightmare.

3.) I think it's reasonable to say that when SB donks the flop his most likely hands are some kind of very strong hand or some kind of draw or weak bluff. So raising a decent turn card and taking free SD is the most effective way to see a SD against HIS range.

[Danenania]

River check/call or checkraise is an interesting approach. Given everything we know about this player how likely do we think it is that he bets an overpair or decent pair/two pair like QT/AT/AJ/KJ/JT/etc. on this river? I mean is there any way my hand could possibly look more like a flush draw give then way it was played? On the other hand SB is sitting there looking sooo likely to call with a bad hand so it may be tough for him not to bet. Can we figure out what percentage he has to be betting an overpair to make betting, check/calling, or check/raising best? In some ways SB's presence makes me want to bet even more since if he has a made hand he'll probably overcall pretty often, so I am risking more than 1 BB by checking when I'm ahead.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
As for the river, betting is very bad. He's going to bet any hand he would have called with, and he's going to raise you lots too. Your bet has no value, which further underscores folding the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a ridiculous statement. Of course betting has value. Button is calling with QQ-AA, AJ, AT, JT, KJ, etc. And SB is likely to call with lots of hands too. Check/calling or checkraising may have more value but there are definite merits to betting.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
interesting...i think raising the flop isnt bad, but other than that i cant see myself playing it differently, except for calling the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems people are somewhat divided on a turn call. I think I probably should have folded but it certainly has to be close. Figuring out the EV of a call vs. fold would be a pretty difficult analysis.

[Chobohoya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As for the river, betting is very bad. He's going to bet any hand he would have called with, and he's going to raise you lots too. Your bet has no value, which further underscores folding the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a ridiculous statement. Of course betting has value. Button is calling with QQ-AA, AJ, AT, JT, KJ, etc. And SB is likely to call with lots of hands too. Check/calling or checkraising may have more value but there are definite merits to betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree your first and last sentences. This because I believe button is going to fire again with many of the hands you listed as his calling hands. If you think that is inaccurate, then fine, but explain why.

[Danenania]

See my response to Jeff W above. I agree with you that it's not clear what the best way to extract value is on the river. I was only pointing out your mistake in saying that betting has NO value, when it clearly does have some (though it might have comparatively less than other options).