Tricky Hand for HUSH Final Days

[wheelz]

i also raise the flop, but i think your line is interesting.

i would call the turn but i can see the merits of folding. the river though, i like. if all i knew were his stats then no i don't lay this down, but you say he plays "pretty sensibly" postflop, and although that's not a very indepth read, i just can't see you being good here ever. there is Q9 though... but although he may 3-bet Q9s preflop he won't raise that on every street, right? nope i can't see you beating anything.

and yeah evan i know i suck at life, but i'm gonna play my hula match soon, honest! although i'll probably lose because i haven't played poker in 3 weeks.

[oreogod]

your gutshot will probably net u a split a decent amount of the time and your K puts 4 to a str8 out there and u cant be confident its good.

As far as the river I probably call. I mean worst case scenario he has KQ, or AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (or TT, JJ). Still Id discount KQ a bit unless he was raising flop and going for a check behind on turn UI. Discount AQs[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] a little as well, unless he was pulling a free showdown with a good amount of outs (not a bad move imo).

Intresting hand, but there should be enough doubt that u might want to call the river. Thing is a lot of ppl would just call your river bet, so his river raise is strong-ish but mixed with the weak line u took u probably have to call. SB doesnt have the flush, and u might have played your flush draw (if u had it) stronger, hoping for him to fold to more action. While u will lose this hand a decent amount of the time u will probably win it more often than u think. U basically have to take it down 5.5% of the time.

[wheelz]

so you think he raises the river with an overpair? or are there other worse hands you think he plays like this?

and yeah this probably should be a turn fold.

[krishanleong]

I raise the flop. To knock out the likely overcard holding. I don't like the call at all.

I call the turn both times around. It might be close. But the pot is large and you don't need huge odds.

I don't like the river bet. What is the point. He is betting 99% of his hands on this river including overpairs and 2 pairs which are the only hands that you beat that will call the river. Plus donking on a paired board just looks fishy. Your read says this guy doesn't get out of line but I think AA will raise this river once in a while just to say, "Put that board pairing bluff down!!". Just check and call in a 15BB pot. (Bet-call I think is also okay)

Krishan

[oreogod]

Well its tough because on the flop:
1. Was he raising AA-JJ, or
2. ...was he actually pushing a set w/ TT, or...
3. ...Raising AQ or KQ (QJs could also be in the running) w/ the intention of checking turn UI. (in this case only KQ makes the most sense, where as for AQ did he raise the flop intending for a free card, and then AGAIN raise the turn intending for a free showdown since he picked up a str8 drw on the turn)

So u have to look at those hands and u can work out a percentage he has each one based on his actions and that should help u determine which way to take this baby. Obviously its hard to do this stuff on the fly but thats why u do it here away from the table.

Anyway once u take all the actions from flop to river into account see what u come up with.

AA-QQ:
JJ:
TT:
AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]:
KQ:
QJs:

[wheelz]

i can see possibly AA-QQ, nothing else, and i don't expect him to raise those on the river. a JQ value raise is really doubtful i think. i guess if dane could assign a percentage to how often he thinks he might get raised on the river by an overpair or JQ we could give a definitive answer. but the fact that he folded tells me we'll probably find out that folding to the raise was a good idea.

yeah check/call might be better than bet/fold on the river. but i think bet/call is in third.

[oreogod]

Well I meant AQ of [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] which would give him the flush. But in order for him to have that, he must raise flop and then again raise turn for a free showdown once he also picked up a str8 draw with his flush draw+overs.

Also for my play of the hand. I raise flop because its possible my hand is good. If I get 3bet, I dont mind horribly, as it will definitly slow the SB down (unlikely to donk, or put raise, etc unless hes strong).

If I get 3bet on flop, check Turn...if Button bets and SB calls its 11bbs to me. I could very well be making a -EV call depending on what Button has (like say I have 2 outs at most, my bet costs me about ~<font color="red"> -.44</font> of a BB). But the pot is big and I could very well have at least 3 (sometimes u will have more, sometimes about 2-3 outs) outs easy which brings the call up to only slightly -EV or breakeven-ish.

[Trix]

You sure K9 is enough hand to open when you have that guy behind you, he will probably 3bet many of the better hands that TAGs will fold and K9 seem marginal from CO normally to me.

Flop line seems good as there are alot of hands he wont fold for 2 that you want him to fold.

Turn is probably too optimistic, the 9s are probably worth around 1.5 outs, but the K/Q can´t be worth much, due to splits or losing when making them anyway.
Folding first time is probably the best action.

I´m not sure I like a fold if raised on the river since he may be clowning it up with 98,Q9 or such. He will probably bet alot of the time if we check, so check-calling might be better.

[Jeff W]

Raise the flop.

Edit: I mis-stoved earlier and included too many KQ combinations. I think you should still check river though because you can get SB to subsidize your pot and it seems unlikely that a strong pair is checking behind. I like a checkraise though, because our equity is actually ~63% in my estimation:

Board: 4d 9h Td 9d Jh
equity (%)
37.5% { TT+, 44, AdJd, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, KcQd, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQd, KsQd, QJo }
62.5% { Kd9s }

So, even if he only 3-bets a better hand and you always pay off it's correct to checkraise because of SB's contribution. OTOH, if you think he's checking behind a lot because the 9d is a scare card, then I like your bet-fold.

[TStoneMBD]

definitely gotta raise this flop imo

turn i would fold because your outs are somewhat tainted, but more importantly you are risking yourself to facing 2 more bets back to you. SB is really representing a huge hand by his flop smoothcall turn bet line. it seems that he doesnt want to eliminate you from the pot even though its a draw heavy board. i think you get 3bet pretty frequently on the turn.

im unsure about the river but i trust jeff