96s Blind Steal

[Danenania]

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I don't like the idea of planning to bet-fold the turn HU against someone who plays weird. Against someone like this, why not check the turn? The pot is small, you have a good hand that wants to showdown and he will often bluff the river if you check the turn, but may fold a loser if you bet the turn yourself. In a 3.25BB pot I don't think it's harmful to give 2 overcards a free card if they will often bluff with them on the river. If the flop had contained 2 flush cards then I think you must bet this turn. If you don't think he will bluff a busted gutshot on the river, then betting the turn is OK also.

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I actually think the small size of the pot is a pretty good justification for betting, not checking, since if he does checkraise I'm pretty certain I won't have nearly enough odds to call down even though it will be a whacko move with a worse hand from time to time. Way more often that that it will be a monster. If the pot was somehow so big that I'd feel uncomfortable folding the turn then I could see the merits of a check there much better.

[spydog]

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I don't like the idea of planning to bet-fold the turn HU against someone who plays weird. Against someone like this, why not check the turn? The pot is small, you have a good hand that wants to showdown and he will often bluff the river if you check the turn, but may fold a loser if you bet the turn yourself. In a 3.25BB pot I don't think it's harmful to give 2 overcards a free card if they will often bluff with them on the river. If the flop had contained 2 flush cards then I think you must bet this turn. If you don't think he will bluff a busted gutshot on the river, then betting the turn is OK also.

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I actually think the small size of the pot is a pretty good justification for betting, not checking, since if he does checkraise I'm pretty certain I won't have nearly enough odds to call down even though it will be a whacko move with a worse hand from time to time. Way more often that that it will be a monster. If the pot was somehow so big that I'd feel uncomfortable folding the turn then I could see the merits of a check there much better.

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That's interesting. When the pot is so small like this on the turn, I ask myself this question:

Is my opponent more likely to make a bluffing mistake or a calling mistake?

Against a calling station, the answer is obvious. He will make calling mistakes, so it's an easy bet.

Better opponents will probably make more bluffing mistakes in this situation than calling mistakes. So, I think about how I can make him make a bluffing mistake. By calling the flop and checking the turn it appears that you are on a gutshot. He is likely to bet a lot of rivers, thinking that you missed. Also, by checking the turn, you are giving him an opportunity to make a calling mistake with Ace or King high that he might have folded on the turn if he checks to you on the river.

[Surfbullet]

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I actually think the small size of the pot is a pretty good justification for betting, not checking, since if he does checkraise I'm pretty certain I won't have nearly enough odds to call down even though it will be a whacko move with a worse hand from time to time. Way more often that that it will be a monster. If the pot was somehow so big that I'd feel uncomfortable folding the turn then I could see the merits of a check there much better.

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You don't think he'll c/r 22/33/55/any 4/any6 on the turn here? Your play looks like an Ace or overs(since he'll expect you to raise a flop pair or PP). I'd be leery of folding what may be the best hand on the turn (because he's tricky, and the pot's to small to call). Additionally, inducing bluffs on the river is more profitable than in big pots because we give up less equity by allowing a 6-outer to see the river for free.

I intellectually agree with checking turns in these situations, but don't do it much in practice anymore...I may give it a go for awhile and see how it works again.

Also, I opened this thread to figure out who this "Dane S" newb was who was posting a 96s blind steal. Turns out it's Danenania! Crazy world we live in. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Surf

[Danenania]

I think part of the problem is that his play of this hand is skewing the perception of his trickiness to much more of an extreme than I had at the time he checked the turn. After playing this hand it's very possible that I'd play a future turn against him differently, but at the time I only thought he played sorta weird at times, but fairly passively on the whole, not necessarily very tricky. Using the info that I actually had instead of info that I wouldn't gain until the future, I think bet/folding the turn was right in this instance. Though you make a couple good points about the benefits of a check against a more unpredictable opponent.

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Also, I opened this thread to figure out who this "Dane S" newb was who was posting a 96s blind steal. Turns out it's Danenania! Crazy world we live in.

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Yeah I thought with my distinctive first name and long held avatar I could probably pull it off. Dane S doesn't have quite the same flare but it does win in spelling and pronounceability. Also I was eager to become a member of the elite first name, last initial society.

[sthief09]

well, he's got a 4 there a lot but he's got K7 etc sometimes too

the only thing I wonder about is why he check-called the turn. if he was bluffing he would've bet again. if he just had a gutter, I think he would've bet again. when he checkcalls the turn I'm putting him on a 6, a 4, or A high. I don't think he checkraises the river with either a 6 or A high. but also you'd have to think a lot of players bet the river with a 4

[Jeff W]

Josh,

What do you think about checking the river?

Also, why aren't you on AIM? I can't PM you on 2+2 anymore. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[sthief09]

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Josh,

What do you think about checking the river?

Also, why aren't you on AIM? I can't PM you on 2+2 anymore. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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I have to leave in 15 mins and I haven't started packing yet because I rediscovered OOT