Hand from FullTilt 10k last night...

PFrese · #1 10-31-2005, 03:21 PM

I can not, for the life of me get the converter to work. Sorry for the un-edited version. Now for the hand.

Situation - 60 left. 54 spots pay. I am not trying to limp into the money. Trying to take advantage of premoney tightness, steal where I can, and move up. I am in about 48th spotish.

Preflop - Everyone folds to me in the SB. Yes, I know I should have raised, but prior to this, I had been doing plenty of raising and stealing. Thought I might just try to limp and maybe catch a hand.

FullTiltPoker Game #272129627: $10,000 Guarantee (1693759), Table 35 - 300/600 Ante 75 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:29:39 ET - 2005/10/31
Seat 1: shinger (43,014)
Seat 2: x buzzsaw x (25,937)
Seat 3: charles15 (3,984)
Seat 4: Fabbs (5,658)
Seat 6: Trips013 (6,230)
Seat 7: dimedime (12,990)
Seat 8: kajunman35 (21,121)
Seat 9: Matty7x (9,970)
shinger antes 75
x buzzsaw x antes 75
charles15 antes 75
Fabbs antes 75
Trips013 antes 75
dimedime antes 75
kajunman35 antes 75
Matty7x antes 75
Trips013 posts the small blind of 300
dimedime posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Trips013 [Jc Tc]
kajunman35 folds
Matty7x folds
shinger folds
x buzzsaw x folds
charles15 folds
Fabbs folds
Trips013 calls 300
dimedime checks
*** FLOP *** [Kc Ac As]
Trips013 checks
dimedime bets 1,800

I have a flush draw, gutshot straight draw and Royal draw. Figure 12 outs+. What do you do??

A-Baum · #2 10-31-2005, 03:41 PM

Tough call. On one hand I'd like to peel 4th street, but if you miss and fold, you have no FE so you're in a tough spot.

Most likely you're up against a weak ace who got lucky or a weak king.

nightlyraver · #3 10-31-2005, 03:55 PM

Here is the big question: How many, if any, pocket pairs will the BB check preflop in this spot?

Here is the smaller question: How often will the BB bluff with no pair, no draw?

Even with all of your outs, you are getting very poor pot odds to call even if the BB just has a hand like K2o. If he generally will raise preflop with a pocket pair, then he either has an A, a K or absolutely nothing. Given the pot odds, he will have to bluff more than 60% of the time, I belive, for you to stay in this hand. In this case, you should put in a small raise and represent an A. Keep in mind howere that he may be very reluctant to put you on an A since you did not raise preflop and you have been playing aggressively.

HOWEVER, if he will check many pocket pairs preflop, then you are ahead of more than just a pure bluff. For example, you are ahead of a pair of 5's, he will and should bet a pair of 5's after you check, you should now be more inclined to put in the small semi-bluff raise so you can win it now since he probably will not pay off your draw.

One other move to consider is to simply bet out on this flop. If the BB is tight and will not raise on a pure bluff, you should bet this flop and you'll win it far more often than 35% of the time, justifying a semi-bluff bet of around 1/2 the pot.

PFrese · #4 10-31-2005, 05:12 PM

Nightly - I really like the line of betting out half the pot. Could look like I am hoping for a raise so that I can push and he folds, or has the benefit of freezing him into just calling and letting me see the turn for cheap. And, if he raises, I can fold quietly. I SHOULDA DONE THAT, DANGIT!

Instead - I pushed. He called, flipped over K4o, and I did not catch any of my outs. Finished 60th. Ugg.

I felt the push was too agressive and realize it was a mistake, but do you think he made a mistake to call with King crap offsuit? It cost him about half his stack. The pot was offering him ~3 to 1 on his call, so I guess that was correct???

#5 10-31-2005, 05:14 PM

I can't see the villain betting an ace here like that. I would raise him here. He doesn't have a boat, so you still have some outs. I want to at least see a turn card here.

rockythecat99 · #6 10-31-2005, 05:16 PM

You push. He doesn't have an ace here like 100% of the time. If he has a king so bet it. You still have 12 outs if I am counting correctly. Also more often than not he will make this bet with air and you all in will make him fold. This is a push and you are being results oriented. Don't do that its bad.

#7 10-31-2005, 05:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Nightly - I really like the line of betting out half the pot. Could look like I am hoping for a raise so that I can push and he folds, or has the benefit of freezing him into just calling and letting me see the turn for cheap. And, if he raises, I can fold quietly. I SHOULDA DONE THAT, DANGIT!

Instead - I pushed. He called, flipped over K4o, and I did not catch any of my outs. Finished 60th. Ugg.

I felt the push was too agressive and realize it was a mistake, but do you think he made a mistake to call with King crap offsuit? It cost him about half his stack. The pot was offering him ~3 to 1 on his call, so I guess that was correct???

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I think the villain also agreed that you didn't have an ace since you didn't raise him preflop in your one on one showdown. I think if you raise him here (which you admit you should have done preflop) you can take this hand down before the flop or on the flop.

JustPlayingSmart · #8 10-31-2005, 06:58 PM

If you're taking advantage of the premoney tightness, why not just push preflop. It will be tough for him to call half his stack here without picking up a hand.

As for the flop, in this situation, I think a lot of the time the action goes check, bet, allin, he is calling, and you are behind to a king. I think I would lead the flop, betting like 800. He will probably not raise you with a king, and he will fold the vast majority of the time he has nothing.

nightlyraver · #9 11-01-2005, 01:32 PM

I disagree with you 100%. First, we don't know that Villian does not have an A. He wants to protect against the flush draw PLUS Hero is presumably a very aggressive player. In this spot, I'm definately betting out with an A since Hero will be tempted to come over the top (as he did). Second, it's very nice that Hero has all those outs, but he's getting very poos odds to draw to them. A major part of the value of Hero's semi-bluff check-raise is that Villian will fold a better hand. In this spot, there is a 0% chance that Villian folds an A or a K and a 100% chance that he folds a pure bluff. Which brings me back to my original post - if Villian will check a hand like pocket 5's preflop, will fold a hand like this to a check-raise on the flop, AND will bluff at this with air a fair amount of time, only THEN is the check-raise semi-bluff worth it. I believe that all of those conditions must happen something like 60% of the time for the play to break even, but I may be wrong with the math. In this spot, I would really need to know my oponent to say the all of these conditions, combined, will occur 60% of the time or more. To say that more often than not he makes this bet with air is not supported by the OP.