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#11
10-24-2005, 06:59 PM
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Re: Sometimes Monsters Are REAL
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] To be honest, I fold preflop. [/ QUOTE ] 5.25:1 is too sweet to pass up. [/ QUOTE ] I'm a little girl when it comes to variance. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] 
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#12
10-24-2005, 07:08 PM
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Re: Sometimes Monsters Are REAL
Everyone seems to be missing the fact that in hand 2 UTG is 21/ 1 /.5
He is tight. Yes he could be limping KQ here. Him not raising does not make KK/QQ any less likely. If anything I think it makes it more likely. I feel that with these stats villain understands to be tight in early position, but being superpassive nobody puts him on a limped big pair. When this .5 aggro guy puts in the 3rd bet on the turn I am pretty confident he has QQ or KK.
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#13
10-24-2005, 07:12 PM
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Re: Sometimes Monsters Are REAL
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone seems to be missing the fact that in hand 2 UTG is 21/ 1 /.5 [/ QUOTE ] I didn't miss that. In fact, that explains my reticence to cap the turn even though I probably would without thinking about it. With 1 % PFR, though, he can still raise AA and KK every time. I think QQ is a lot more likely than KK especially as he passed his option to reraise after limping. Villain springing to life on the turn makes me think it's a split between KQ and QQ. More combos for KQ so I cap, but I realize an argument can easily be made to call down.
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#14
10-24-2005, 07:17 PM
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Re: Sometimes Monsters Are REAL
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone seems to be missing the fact that in hand 2 UTG is 21/ 1 /.5 He is tight. Yes he could be limping KQ here. Him not raising does not make KK/QQ any less likely. If anything I think it makes it more likely. I feel that with these stats villain understands to be tight in early position, but being superpassive nobody puts him on a limped big pair. When this .5 aggro guy puts in the 3rd bet on the turn I am pretty confident he has QQ or KK. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't miss that. A vpip of 21 includes lots of hands; he just doesn't raise many of them. That's why I think 44 could easily be a part of his range. Seriously though, KQs, UTG. A 21/1 guys limps that every time, don't you think?
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#15
10-24-2005, 07:20 PM
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Re: Sometimes Monsters Are REAL
I call the turn raise in Hand 1. If I thought he could massively overplay an overpair, then I would three-bet, but, just based on the small stat read, I'm not sure I could assume he would make such an overplay with the 2 Js on the board. That leaves, I think AJs, JJ, and 88 as reasonable holdings, I'm I'm a bit unsure that a 13/8 will always three-bet 88 pre-flop. Again, if I thought he could play his KK or whatever like this, and he very well might, I'd three-bet it, but as it stands I see 2 possible AJs (would he 3-bet AJo? I don't think so), 1 possible JJ, 3 possible 88 though somewhat less likely I think, and a number of possible overpair hands, though also somewhat unlikely, I think.
Hand 2 I cap the turn without much worry. The aggressor is UTG who limped and didn't RR when given the opportunity. If his PFR were accurate despite the small sample size, it means he could limp QQ UTG, but he could just as easily limp KQ or even AQ (though quite a bit less likely holding given his turn play and post-flop timidity when a K falls). His turn action is worrisome given his post-flop AF, but we're looking at only a 150 hand sample. I'm willing to cap here on the premise that he's got QQ or KQ, KQ is combinatorically more likely, and also slightly more likely for a limp pre-flop, and I can't get 5-bet here on the turn meaning by capping I know no more than 2 additional BBs go in before showdown if I cap and choose to call a river lead (44 is also possible, too). And that feels right to me.
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#16
10-24-2005, 07:21 PM
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Re: Sometimes Monsters Are REAL
[ QUOTE ]
Seriously though, KQs, UTG. A 21/1 guys limps that every time, don't you think? [/ QUOTE ] Well I suppose he could if he just played tight in all positions. I suppose I would like to see his positional breakdown to really have an idea, but the real question is, does a player like this put in this many bets with two pair?
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#17
10-24-2005, 07:25 PM
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Re: Sometimes Monsters Are REAL
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone seems to be missing the fact that in hand 2 UTG is 21/ 1 /.5 [/ QUOTE ] I didn't miss it either but remember this is over 150 hands only. You get KK (or QQ) once every 221 hands on average so this number can be misleading, maybe his real number is 3%. 9 combinations of KQ, 6 of KK/QQ but those have to be discounted some (50%) due to the small number of hands meaning the stat inaccurate. There are 3 combinations of 44 that will also play this way. You have to cap the turn possibly even raise the river.
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#18
10-24-2005, 07:31 PM
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Re: Sometimes Monsters Are REAL
also, this is a decent player who could/should fold that badly played overpair
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#19
10-24-2005, 07:33 PM
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Re: Sometimes Monsters Are REAL
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] To be honest, I fold preflop. [/ QUOTE ] 5.25:1 is too sweet to pass up. [/ QUOTE ] I'm a little girl when it comes to variance. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] not that much variance. 87.5% or whatever you fold 2.5% you lose a huge pot 9% you win a huge pot
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#20
10-24-2005, 07:36 PM
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Re: Sometimes Monsters Are REAL
with no straights or flushes and no raise preflop in hand 2, i cap the turn. if he leadds the river i puss out and call.
in hand one, i honeslty think he 3bets 88 preflop and the only other hands that really makes sense is AJ or JJ...i dont know, i probably 3bet it in the heat of the moment but it may be wrong.
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