The Sidewalks Where Terror Breeds

[lehighguy]

As long as the ME is run the way it was before 9/11 you will never defeat Al Qaeda. It wouldn't matter if you stopped writing checks to Isreal. Unless there is fundamental change in the societies of the ME Al Qaeda will never die. That is why the just pull out mentality is so damn shortsighted. Just leaving it alone won't solve anything.

[ACPlayer]

So, is your solution to hang around and wait for the ME to fix themselves? Or is it to nuke the middle east into outer space? At the moment we are not only not hanging around waiting for a fix, we are exacerbating the problem. We are giving the youths on the streets of england a target for resentment -- the invasion of the middle east.

We can do what we need to influence the middle east to change their mindset. Otherwise, we are just waiting for change. I cant accept.

Let me point out that the sentiments of immigrants to their home countries are very strong. Just yesterday an older sicilian gentleman was talking to me about someone who had just left the table. "He is sicilian, they are good men". Italian Americans connect to their homeland, irish to theirs, arabs to theirs, chinese to theirs, that is the tribal instinct. American Irish actively supported the terrorists in Ireland and identified with the victimization.

Now, we are seeing this in the Arabs.

It is imperative to solving the problem that we not only understand the middle east, we also understand and influence how the middle east sees us. As poker players we do that all the time -- we try to understand how the opponent sees us and we influence that to our advantage. At least I do, every moment that I am fighting on the poker table.

Bush is taking a step in that direction by appointing Karen Hughes. However, if this appointment is about propoganda, you and I both know that actions speak far louder than spin.

Edit: And while we wait for the middle east to fix itself, we are actively breaking our society. Cannot fly databases, NY transit searches, next comes searches when we enter libraries, restaraunts, goto a university class, patriot act changes with NO sunset provisions.

I am beginning to feel sick as I read what I have written.

[lehighguy]

Your plan is to wait for the middle east to fix itself. Your plan is to completely withdraw American influence and leave the ME to its own devices. I don't think that works. I don't see them fixing thier own problems within the next century without help.

Your plan is best exemplified in Iran where the French/German plan is employed. We tell Iran is has to reform, so they hold token elections in which the clerics retain all real power and nothing changes. Meanwhile they are going to develope nuclear weapons sometime in the next decade and who's gonna stop them.

We broke the ME. We broke it with our oil dependency. We broke it by starting the Iran/Iraq war. We broke it by supporting half the dictator crackpots over there. We have a debt we need to pay. We have to undo the damage we've done with our shortsighted oil based policies.

By deposing dictators we give the moderates of a country the ability to pursue real change in thier social fabric. That is what democracy allows. As long as single despots and oligarchs can strike down any change the ME will remain the same and terrorism will only grow.

If anything our policy should be more comprehensive. We should stop supporting the Saudi royals. We should reduce oil dependence so they lose thier power base. We should do a more competent job of rebuilding Iraq.

[Exsubmariner]

In all seriousness,
Why can't we break the religion. It happened to Christianity. Why can't Islam be reformed under the influence of a modern society?
The foriegn policy in the ME should be Democracy Now. Democracy for all. Damn the economics.
X

[ACPlayer]

Your post is muddled.

I dont want us to wait for the ME to fix itself. Reread what I wrote.

[ACPlayer]

In all seriousness -- who broke Christianity?

[Exsubmariner]

A whole bevy of Scientists, philosophers, politicians, it was a period called the Renaissance. It basically laid the groundwork for the modern world coupled with the Reformation. Have you heard of the third Vatican Counsel? They even say that the Jews are no longer responsible for the murder of Christ. The pope no longer holds the political power the office once did (can't make the Princes of Europe Obey any more because there are no more Princes as people stopped backing Princes who were backed by the Church. Got to Love Henry the VIII. Thank God for the English. I digress.). Trust me, it hasn't gone away, but it's power is certainly a shadow of it's former self.
I think Islam can be changed in a similar way to the degree that the Mullahs no longer have any real power.
X

[lehighguy]

I think what he means is that Christians don't really believe in thier religion anymore. They only believe in the tenents that they agree with. The Bible is seen as more of a guidebook rather then authority.

Consider for instance Catholics that oppose gay marraige because the Pope says so, but use contraceptives which he also opposes. These people don't really believe in Catholicism, they believe in thier own believes.

Which is just fine by me. I think when anyone actually Believes with a capital B they basically become fundamentalists. Ignoring the stupid parts of you religion are what makes people moderates.

[ACPlayer]

I can accept that.

Any changes that were brought to the West were brought about by the west. There were not imposed on the west by occupation or use of force.

We cannot make societies change by force. The conditions must be right for them to bring about changes. Moderate muslims will change their societies. What we can do is create an environment for the change.

This is why I advocate establishing relations with the Iranian government. Establishing a state for Palestinian refugees rather than crowding them out of the space they have and leaving them with no economic leverage. Fostering trade and cultural exchanges. Perhaps providing economic assistance as needed. Pursuing principled, rather than short term relations with the local dictators.

Now you see the reason for the question -- who changed the West? In fact the West will continue to change and it will be done by us, not from the outside. Same, same for the middle east.

[lehighguy]

Force of arms also changed the West. Force of arms changed Germany and Japan in WWII. Let's not forget the people of those countries choose those governments. Korea too was changed by force of arms.

There are societies you can change through trade and relations (USSR). However, there are some societies that can't be changed by simple relations (Nazi-Germany, North Korea). Iran is the same. It doesn't matter if the local people in Iran don't like the government (they don't) because they are powerless to change things. If you want them to change society you have to give them the power to do so.

In China we give people power by giving them wealth. Trade and commerce will create a new class of powerful private citizens who will have the power to challenge the government. The Chinese government knows this, but has no choice but to allow free enterprise. This is because they can't rely on natual resources (oil) to prop up thier regime.

Since the ME dictatorships can rely on oil revenues to fund thier police forces, they don't need to rely on popular support at all. That's what makes the existence of the Arab moderate completely worthless.

There are two ways to break the hold of the ME dictatorships. The best way is to invent alternative fuel sources that are more efficient then oil. I don't think conservation will really help that much. If we conserve and the price goes down the Chinese or someone else will simply start using more oil. Only be inventing a new power source that makes it so people don't WANT to use oil will we break the backs of these regimes. This is what makes Bush's energy policy and funding cut to the sciences to reprehensible.

The less desireable option, though the only one available to us because of current forseeable science, is to remove these dictators through force of arms, and give power to the people. If the Arab population is really comprised mainly of moderates that want to build peaceful governments then the people will elect such leaders.