What hands would you fold here?

Stuey · #1 05-25-2005, 04:15 AM

Villian is 15 VP$IP 8 PFR 2.75 AF after 73 hands
Table is tight
Hero is 18 VP$IP 12 PFR 8 AF through 73 hands

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with ?,?.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

Results in white below: 
MP2 doesn't show.
Hero has ?,?.
Outcome: Hero wins 9.75 BB. 

If you are villian what hands do you consider folding here? and why?
What did hero have?

Schwartzy61 · #2 05-25-2005, 04:23 AM

I would think he took a stab on the river with two overcards like AK, AQ, or KQ. Seems like an odd spot to bluff though...

Hero I would assume had a big pair or top set and possibly TT.

cmwck · #3 05-25-2005, 05:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
...and possibly TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would really raise the river with TT in Hero's spot?

aK13 · #4 05-25-2005, 05:32 AM

Hero looks to be playing a high pocket pair JJ-AA.

Villain looks like he's a 2+2er taking a WA/WB line with something like TT so you can't check the river behind with overs.

redbaronat · #5 05-25-2005, 06:00 AM

If I'm the villan I would only raise with AK or AKs.
I put you on at least AKs, because you re-raised me.

Now, I have overcards on the flop and the pot is small
(3BB). I would have folded there.

If I had a pair say TT, then... I don't know.

I have an overpair, so I guess I would check and call all the way.

I don't understand the Villian's bet on the turn.
He can't bluff here because he was re-raised on the flop.
His opponent must at least have AKs or better.

To me its a simple check, call. Villian was obviously not thinking about what happened previously in the hand (a difficult thing to do I know in the Heat of Battle).

Best regards,

Red

Zoelef · #6 05-25-2005, 06:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you are villian what hands do you consider folding here? and why?
What did hero have?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero probably has AA-JJ or AJs. 77 isn't unreasonable but would certainly be jarring. Note hero's pfr is ~12.

Given the preflop raise, Villain probably has TT-99 or maybe even KJs/QJs and threw a changeup preflop? I can't imagine folding TPTK or an overpair here with no flush draws or any pfr'd straight draw.

Stuey · #7 05-25-2005, 02:00 PM

bump for more replies before results

Stuey · #8 05-25-2005, 05:01 PM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls.

 I think villain would cap AA, KK, and QQ.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

 I think this flop missed him unless he holds JJ, AJs, AJo.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

 After he does not raise here I think he is also playing overcards like me. Maybe AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo.

River: (6.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds.

 If he checks here I was going to bet. So when he bets I raise as I find it more likely he is making a tricky play to get me to fold if I have overcards than him holding JJ. Which is the only hand I think this guy bets here to stop me checking through. If he reraises I call the bet.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

Results in white below: 
MP2 doesn't show.
Hero has Kc Ah (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins 9.75 BB. 

I don’t know why I am so confident in this situation. I am worried my play could be very bad and since I won I will continue doing this. So speak up if this is the wrong play or I have the wrong reasons for doing it. Thanks

davelin · #9 05-25-2005, 05:09 PM

Can't really say I love your play here.

Stuey · #10 05-25-2005, 07:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Can't really say I love your play here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am going to think about it some more. It will be hard to change since I won the hand and I don't understand the reasons this is a bad play. I am open to the idea I am wrong here. I just need to understand why. That's why I asked what hands do you fold here if you are villian.