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Old 09-18-2002, 10:10 AM
PFrese PFrese is offline
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Default Blind steal hand for review - just lucky?

HELLO! First post in a while, really like the new board! Anyway, here is a hand from last night PP 2/4. First time back up at these limits after going back down to .5/1.00 and 1/2 to try and find/fix some leaks.

I had been running very well up until this point and was up about 22BB in 1.5 hours. I get dealt A3o on the button. The table was playing fairly tight all fold to me, so I go for a blind steal and raise. Both the SB and BB call. Now for the rest of the hand:

*** FLOP *** : [ 5c Qh 7d ]
Both check to me, predictably and I bet. SB folds, BB calls

*** TURN *** : [ 5c Qh 7d ] [ Jh ]
BB checks, I bet, BB Raises, I call

Question - Does anyone fold here? I realize that I am in bad shape, with Ace-rag, but, how many people think he is just making a play?

*** RIVER *** : [ 5c Qh 7d Jh ] [ Ac ]
BB checks, I being really confused, check.

QUestion - who bets here?

He shows 6d6h, and I take down the pot.

I realize that I got lucky to spike the Ace on the river, BUT didn't he get REALLY lucky that I did not have a Q, a 7, or a J?? Was his check raise a pure bluff, or good strategy? How would you have played this if you were him or me?? [img]/forums/images/icons/confused.gif[/img]

I feel like he outplayed the crap out of me on this hand, but on the other hand, he got luck as hell, seeing that I could have had all sorts of hands that I would have raised with on the button that beat his mid-low pocket pair.

Your thoughts???

Thanks as always!

PaulF
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  #2  
Old 09-18-2002, 10:51 AM
Allan Allan is offline
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Default Re: Blind steal hand for review - just lucky?

If I don't know much about my opponent I would probably see the river as well....if only to gain some information on how his hands are played. On the river I think you have a pretty safe value bet. You are most likely ahead....there are times when you will get checkraised by the other player who hopes you have hit your A and he has 2 pair or something bigger but those times will be fewer than the times you miss a big bet if you check it through here.

I think his checkraise was fine....although leading up to this point I think I would have played it differently. After SB checks I would bet out right here, hoping either to win it outright or hoping you rasie to knock out the SB. If you just call my bet, I also get a little more info about your hand and if you raise I get some info on the SB hand depending on the action after your raise which will help me make a better decision on the turn. The BB was approaching his hand as best on the turn which he was correct about but I would have made a play for the pot a lot sooner, with a hand like 66 I wanna show strength immediately, before my opponents get so involved that they are going to see the river.

Allan
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  #3  
Old 09-18-2002, 11:08 AM
Ginogino Ginogino is offline
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Default Re: Blind steal hand for review - just lucky?

Paul:
In my opinion, a raise pre-flop with Axo after being folded to on the button is a value bet. You are facing two random hands. What is the probability that four random cards contain an Ace (or pocket pair, given the hands are held by different players). And I think you want to play your unsuited Ace fast -- the odds that the board hits nobody are very much better against one player than two, and this possibility makes your Ace quite valuable. Well played (though you might want to bet the river).
Ginogino
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  #4  
Old 09-18-2002, 12:25 PM
Clarkmeister Clarkmeister is offline
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Default Re: Blind steal hand for review - just lucky?

You should bet the turn about 40% of the time unimproved here. Maybe a hair less if the game is as tight as you suggest.

Once checkraised you should fold the turn. You simply aren't going to be best very often here. While you likely have 3 outs vs most hands, those outs aren't always clean either.

On the river, bet when checked to.
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  #5  
Old 09-18-2002, 12:42 PM
Homer Homer is offline
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Default Re: Blind steal hand for review - just lucky?

If I am the BB, I bet out on the raggedy flop and hope to take the pot right there.

If I am you, I fold to the turn checkraise. You are getting 7:1 on your call, and you are 14:1 against hitting an ace on the river. I would only call if I am close to certain that he is putting a move on me. Given that you called on the turn, I think the river is a value bet.
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  #6  
Old 09-18-2002, 02:56 PM
hutz hutz is offline
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Default Re: Blind steal hand for review - just lucky?

I "conquer" with Homer J.'s analysis.

Hey, Homer, can you identify that reference?
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  #7  
Old 09-18-2002, 03:41 PM
Homer Homer is offline
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Default Re: Blind steal hand for review - just lucky?

No sir, I cannot. I am a disgrace to all loyal Simpsons' fans. I will go hang my head in shame now. [img]/forums/images/icons/confused.gif[/img]
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  #8  
Old 09-18-2002, 04:23 PM
hutz hutz is offline
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Default Re: Blind steal hand for review - just lucky?

It's from an episode when Carl says he "concurs" with someone and then credits his expanded vocabulary to his use of a word-of-the-day calendar (showing the page with that day's word -- "conquer"). Funny stuff!
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