You guys might find this thread interesting...

[Ed Miller]

What I mean to say is, it is usually only a small mistake to raise w/ 22 UTG in most 2-4 games.

I definitely agree with that. This was really the point of my example... that failing to raise ATs is a major error (as is folding AQ), and the "giving extra action" errors I listed were all much smaller in magnitude (if errors at all... notice in the column I didn't label them "errors," I labelled them "plays"... at least I think I did.. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ).

My post where I estimated EVs was just intended to give people who are brand new to thinking about poker this way a quick "back of the envelope" introduction to estimating this kind of stuff. That's why I used three different methods to estimate (random hands, pokerroom.com data, and capping losses). Yes, some will misapply these techniques, but I still think they should be exposed to them. People light up when they hear for the first time about raising because you'll win more than your share. Many of these people think raising is for "getting the garbage out" or other stuff... and those reasons never quite rang true for them because... well, because they are mostly nonsense. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Also, I don't want people to get too lost in the numbers. The actually numbers are VERY hard to nail down because there are so many variables. But thankfully you don't have to nail the numbers down to get most poker decisions correct. A little logic and intuition will get you to the right place often enough to smash any small or medium stakes game.

This is another reason I'm not a huge proponent of running sims. 5% of the effort will get you 90%+ of the answers. And the answers it won't get you are close in nature anyway. Yet most people are still struggling with that first 90%. So the large majority of poker players have little need for sims... because they still need to learn how to get what they can just by thinking things through.

[Flawed]

[ QUOTE ]

1. With a hand like ATs, it's significantly more likely that your opponents should fold than you should. So even if your opponents play loosely postflop, they might be folding more than you simply because their hands are that much weaker than yours.


[/ QUOTE ]

The difference is the hands your folding have a chance to win while their hands do not if they did have the slightest chance they would call. To a bad player getting 8-1 and 15-1 is nothing they'll see a big pot and call with almost anything. To say bad players will play just like the solid players post flop is wrong and must be factored in.

Sure my sims wont be 100% accurate, but they will be more accurate than just assumptions that leave out many variables.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure my sims wont be 100% accurate, but they will be more accurate than just assumptions that leave out many variables.

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Or not. The problem with many simulations is that there is no way to determine whether they have been biased by playing rules that don't reflect the game being simulated. It's not that the answers are necessarily wrong, it's that there is no way to assess there validity.

Simulations like TTH are at their best when used to compare different hands. The simulation may be biased in assessing the value of (say) A8o, but it is likely to apply a similar bias to A7o because the same playing rules are used. You may not get an accurate idea of how good A8o is, but you can see how much better it is than A7o.

[Flawed]

There is no bias when u just take hands down to the showdown
and in the second situation where I got my 1% I just used sims to get a better estimate I used every resource I had available Ed just assumed it was 0% his first assumption (using 23.5%) was off by quite a bit so why wouldnt this one be?

Lets forget about the numbers for a sec its difficult to determine whose estimates are closer and really irrelevant since we both say raising would be correct for ATs.

The point is hes giving advice based on a few assumptions and is not explaining the hand very well. Lets use A8s for example again he says in this situation it would be profitable to raise and thats all he says. He fails to mention how you play post flop has a direct result on how profitable it is to raise. lets say ed says not raising A8s is a 20 cent mistake (he never mentions how much it is exactly). So a new player starts raising A8s all the time in this situation but this new player is a really tight post flop player and because of ed thinks raising A8s is profitable not realizing because of his tightness it is actually costing him money.

In my opinion Ed is giving bad advice unless hes willing to explain how to continue with the hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Finally, your question about "how low do you go" with the suited aces? Well, this is, to some extent, a guess... but I generally raise limpers on the button with A8s... sometimes with A7s... and usually not with A6s or lower. A7s-A4s are relatively close in value... the wheel power of the weaker hands makes up somewhat for the lack of strength... so A7s and A5s are about equal and A6s and A4s are about equal. A3s and A2s are weaker, and A8s is definitely stronger. So that's about where I stick the line, A8s/A7s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again its just my estimates vs Eds (im sure most would go with ed over a nobody) but raising A7s in this situation is a mistake, KQs KJs and a few suited connectors are all better off.

[Ed Miller]

Again its just my estimates vs Eds (im sure most would go with ed over a nobody) but raising A7s in this situation is a mistake, KQs KJs and a few suited connectors are all better off.

This is the way I draw lines at hands like A8s. I say, "Well, ATs is an easy raise, and A7s is probably not a raise. So how about A9s and A8s? Well, they are close, but my guess is that raising is usually somewhat better."

I don't claim to be able to nail down a number, and if someone came with COMPELLING data (from a sim or real data) that suggested that I was wrong, then I'd simply accept that my estimate was wrong.

What I do claim is that, if raising A8s is an error, it's most certainly not a big one. So if you follow my guidelines for limping/raising, you will usually make the correct choice, and furthermore, when you do make an error, it will almost always be a pretty small one.

That is good enough for 99+% of all poker players. Remember, I'm trying to teach people to beat loose games. To do that, learning postflop play and concepts is WAY more important than deciding whether raising A8s on the button with three limpers makes you five cents or costs you five cents. So I intentionally deemphasize debates like this one. I think it gets people thinking about the wrong things as far as improving their play is concerned.

[AdamL]

Just wanted to say thanks for this discussion. It's convinced me to buy your book -- this is good stuff.