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  #71  
Old 11-14-2005, 07:20 PM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 27
Default Re: Sidebets so far

RL update: My step-grandfather died this afternoon (it was more or less expected but still hit my stepdad pretty hard) so I'm not gonna be around much for a few days. Sorry, but poker's in second place.
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  #72  
Old 11-14-2005, 07:25 PM
Benal Benal is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: The GTA
Posts: 104
Default Re: Sidebets so far

My condolences to you and your family.
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  #73  
Old 11-14-2005, 07:57 PM
EverettKings EverettKings is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Williamsburg, VA
Posts: 86
Default Re: Sidebets so far

[ QUOTE ]
RL update: My step-grandfather died this afternoon (it was more or less expected but still hit my stepdad pretty hard) so I'm not gonna be around much for a few days. Sorry, but poker's in second place.

[/ QUOTE ]

So I guess all of those "Hurry up and play some damn tournaments" PMs didnt help?

Take your time.

Everett
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  #74  
Old 12-28-2005, 12:19 AM
EverettKings EverettKings is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Williamsburg, VA
Posts: 86
Default Victory is mine!

Alright, this thing definitely dragged on for much longer than it should, but apparantly these ministeps were a real pain/bore to play so it took a few prods to get adanthar to finish these suckers but....

Adanthar busted. Sweeeeeeeeeeeet-- I mean, how unfortunate.

If you go to my
Ministep Calculator

you can tinker with a little applet I made to simulate the ministep challenge. It just takes your given bankroll and (based on the given percentages) simulates stepping through the levels until you either hit step 5 or don't have enough $$ to buy in any more. It does this a few thousand times (or however many times you tell it to) and spits out some data. Anyway.

I thought that the numbers that I gave Adanthar in that applet were quite generous, and he came out to be about 25% to succeed. I don't doubt that he's an outstanding tournament (and satellite) player, but a >1000% ROI is a little trickier to achieve than it seems.

I dealt with this stuff a whiiiiiiiile ago (when these ministeps were brand new) to figure out if they were worth playing. After playing a bunch to get a feel for my chances and running some numbers, I basically came to three conclusions:
1) The ROI is HUGE for a good player.
2) The variance on cashes is ENORMOUS and you need to really invest in this and be sure that you're a winner.
3) The number of games that you have to play is GINORMONSTROUS. For a strong player, on average, youll play about 80 games (mostly in the form of step 1 freerolls) for every step 5 entry that you earn. So that means 160 games per cash. Though you'll have only paid about 8 buy ins. Do the math and it's like $30-$40 bucks an hour, but considering the absurd variance, you'd have to be a very patient soul to play these properly.


I wish I could give some more satisfying numbers on Adanthar's performance (like finish distributions at each step, etc), but party is being stubborn loading the account activity so I'll give a quick synopsis (Adanthar will probably chime in later).
A) Adanthar ran badly. No doubt about that. But that's part of the intolerable variance of this little challenge.
B) He didn't get past ministep 3. He spent almost all (maybe 85%) of his steps on ministep 1.
C) I would gladly take this bet up again with anyone.



It's amazing how split the forum was on the outcome of this bet when it turned out to be so heavily one-sided (or so I still think). It just goes to show you how bad we people are, intuitively, at grasping fuzzy probabilities and understanding the depths of variance. Doing computations away from the table can help fine-tune your intuition, not to mention keep you from getting an ear full of cider.

Cheers,

Everett
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  #75  
Old 12-28-2005, 12:41 AM
IHateKeithSmart IHateKeithSmart is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: check folding the nuts
Posts: 182
Default Re: Victory is mine!

Thanks for the update EK. Stop the presses, I finally win a sidebet [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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  #76  
Old 12-28-2005, 02:52 AM
Exitonly Exitonly is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 3
Default Re: Victory is mine!

so who do i owe what?

I thin kit's $100 to everet and $100 to IHKS... that right?

If so, how you guys want your money

edit: hey hey, $8 left. I'm not abandoning hope yet.
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  #77  
Old 12-28-2005, 03:09 AM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 27
Default Re: Victory is mine!

Quick summary:

I started playing, treaded some ground for a while, then got the death in the family/running as bad as I can remember/flu combo in a span of two weeks, with a bunch of bad play mixed in. After I got back into it, I had a little bit of breathing room left and actually got to Step 3, but then ran bad *there* twice in two tries, so that was that. I still have $8 of the $30 left, but one tabling those is really painful so I basically quit/will finish it on my own time when I feel like it.

Stats, Step 1:
14 rerolls
2 losses (1 playing bad, 1 running horrible)
5 $4's (a little from column A, a little from column B)
2 Step 2's

Step 2's:
2 rerolls
1 Step 1 (running bad)
1 Step 3

Step 3's:
1 reroll
1 Step 2 (both running bad)

In conclusion, [censored] happens and I'd probably take the bet again, except, y'know, after a while this was like the most boring thing I've ever tried so I'd rather kill myself. Oh yeah, and losing with AA to AA repeatedly sucks, too.
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  #78  
Old 12-28-2005, 03:16 AM
EverettKings EverettKings is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Williamsburg, VA
Posts: 86
Default Re: Victory is mine!

[ QUOTE ]
so who do i owe what?

I thin kit's $100 to everet and $100 to IHKS... that right?

If so, how you guys want your money

[/ QUOTE ]

PStars me, EverettKings (Williamsburg)

I'd also appreciate a handwritten letter admitting defeat. Something to the tune of "I'm stupid. You're smart. I was wrong. You were right. You're the best. I'm the wrost. You're very good-looking. I'm not very attractive" would suffice.

Everett
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  #79  
Old 12-28-2005, 03:24 AM
Exitonly Exitonly is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 3
Default Re: Victory is mine!

You gloat too fast!

Adanthar is going to single table his way to the step 5's.


But yea, since he said he's taking his time, i'll admit defeat until it's overturned. If he actually gets there, you can send it on back.

You'll have your money in a day or two, waiting on a neteller thing at the moment.
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  #80  
Old 12-28-2005, 03:30 AM
EverettKings EverettKings is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Williamsburg, VA
Posts: 86
Default Re: Victory is mine!

[ QUOTE ]
after a while this was like the most boring thing I've ever tried so I'd rather kill myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

That seems to be the worst part of the bet, the marathon boredom. I think I underestimated how easily you can reroll step 1s by just folding like a 5-year-old girl until the reroll point. Though you'd end up advancing like 1 in 20 times. That makes the whole process a nightmare whereby you play hundreds and hundreds of games... something neither of us counted on.

Anyway. The bet was a one-time thing, and I'm too afraid of finding a more devoted, less family-death ridden, running-better person willing to wait it out to try this again. All the cards are on the table now, so I'll be cashing out.

And good luck with everything Adanthar. This forum still needs you.

Everett
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