Flopped set, HU 10/20 match

[Entity]

Opponent seems pretty aggressive, probably a winning TAG player. We haven't been playing together for a long time and haven't seen any ridiculously large pots.

I raise 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] from the SB/Button. He 3-bets from the BB and I call.

The flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. He bets. I raise. He calls.

The turn is the 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He bets. I raise. He 3-bets. I cap. He calls.

The river is the 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. He bets. Call or raise?

[hobbsmann]

I call because along with higher sets I think Ax [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hands make up a significant portion of his range given the turn action.

[StellarWind]

You've conveyed the full strength of your hand already and should just call. It's unfortunate that the non-spade on the flop is the ace as he may have been pushing top pair + flush draw.

[AviD]

I'd call the river when he leads again. Its not clear whether he has the flush or he doesn't want to CR and risk getting 3-bet, but it appears he is certainly betting for value. You could raise, I don't think he is 3-betting without a flush, but if he has some inclination to bluff you with river 3-bets, then just calling his lead makes even more sense. Or, if he is capable of making strong folds, perhaps a raise makes sense. But if he's a winning TAG, given the turn action, I don't think he'll fold a better hand to a raise, but he may fold a worse one (i.e. that river raise with the flush getting there may convince him you either hit the flush or already had a set and his 2 pair isn't worth another bet).

[krishanleong]

If you are playing against me you should raise. A lead like this generally is a hand that doesn't want to go 3-bet on the river.

If I have a flush or AAA you are getting checkraised on the river all day. I'll probably just lead the river with Aces up.

Krishan

[Wynton]

Uh oh, I seem to be the only one who likes raise here.

This guy 3-bet pf. I think the chances are better that he has Aces up than a flush. And I think he'll make the crying call.

[wheelz]

i think his call the flop, bet/3-bet the turn line looks more like aces up than the nut flush draw too.

I'm with wheelz and Wynton. More likely AK or AQ than a flush.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm with wheelz and Wynton. More likely AK or AQ than a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
villain is probably a winning TAG player

[/ QUOTE ]
if the read entity supplied is correct then villain is never beating this river with just TPGK and the above two quotes are inconsistent. IMO his hand range given the turn action is {AA,77,Ax [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A6, A7, 67}. There just aren't enough hands that we are beating once that spade falls, if this guy plays well, to raise.

[DeathDonkey]

OMG raise.

-DeathDonkey