Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #11  
Old 11-24-2002, 02:00 PM
marbles marbles is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Wauwatosa, WI
Posts: 568
Default your intuition has gotten the best of you!

Dynasty,

Another angle to consider:

Consider this as a pass/fail test with 18 trials (for the 18 cards dealt to everyone but you). A success is an ace or king, a failure is anything else. Here's how the probabilities would break out:

P(zero): .057
P(one): .228
P(two): .346
P(three): .255
P(four): .096
P(five): .017
P(six): .001

So yes, the most likely result is two ace/kings being dealt out when you hold AK against 9 opponents. But notice that when you take the weighted average of the 7 possible results, the expected value is actually 2.16 successes. If exactly two opponents hold ace and/or king, that's actually LESS than you should expect. There are actually an extra 0.16 ace/kings left in the deck for the flop.
Reply With Quote
 

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:23 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.