pushing in the orange zone (PP$150)

[Texas Pete]

Background reading is this thread in the STT forum, with lively debate on pushing near the top of the orange zone.

So... there I was... and I pushed...
(Special bonus: Ka52_Hokum previously called an allin with A5os. But I would have pushed anyway had this not been the case.)

My question: kosher for MTT as well?

Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 7: hero ( $2107 )
Seat 2: Ka52_Hokum ( $5624 )
Seat 9: congo2 ( $5609 )
Seat 4: jonthegreek3 ( $10265 )
Seat 6: Twenty5Cent ( $6621 )
Seat 3: azazel2177 ( $1125 )
Seat 5: chinxu ( $1722 )
Seat 8: themanAA420 ( $4982 )
Seat 1: TheMaster891 ( $3138 )
Seat 10: coimbra ( $2783 )
Trny:18627177 Level:6
Blinds (75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to hero [ Jh Ah ]
jonthegreek3 folds.
chinxu folds.
Twenty5Cent folds.
kookymangas is all-In [2107].......

[Lloyd]

I would most definitely not be pushing there as you are only called with hands you are behind/dominated by.

[Texas Pete]

Therefore you disagree with the logic behind a push in the STT scenario/thread as well?

[Lloyd]

I don't see how you can compare the two. In the STT example, the hero has AQ on the button in a 5-handed game. Here the hero has AJ in MP in a 10-handed game. Very different scenarios. I'm not sure if I'd push in the STT either but it's a much closer decision.

[ononimo]

since, no one has chosen "fold" yet, can those who advocate the "~3 BB raise" option comment on what they'd do if they got re-raised pre-flop?

[Texas Pete]

Just did some math, pushing is +CEV
assuming you only get called when behind (22+, AQo+) by anyone behind you,

(1) everyone folds 63.3% * (2107 + 225) = 1476
(2) one caller 36.7%
(a) win 42% = "4214" (ignoring the blinds for now)
(b) lose 58% = 0
================
650

Total is 2126 > 2107 for folding. But remember, I haven't included the blinds in pot if hero gets called, so it's definitely +CEV relative to folding.

[el_dusto]

[ QUOTE ]
since, no one has chosen "fold" yet, can those who advocate the "~3 BB raise" option comment on what they'd do if they got re-raised pre-flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

1 reraiser: call
reraiser followed by more re-reraisers: fold

if the one reraise was an insta-push, I might move my cursor over all the buttons and then pick fold.

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
since, no one has chosen "fold" yet, can those who advocate the "~3 BB raise" option comment on what they'd do if they got re-raised pre-flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
You just can't answer this type of question. And that's probably the key difference between STT and MTT. In an STT (and while I play mainly MTTs I've got at least a couple thousand STTs under my belt so I know something about them) play is much more systematic. Blinds escalate rapidly. Bubble play comes quickly. Unless you've played with someone previously you often don't have great reads.

With an MTT you just can't say something like "well if somebody pushes I'll call" or "I'll call one raise but fold to a raise and a re-raise". It all depends. Who is pushing? How have they been playing? How big is their stack? How have I been playing? Does it look like I'm stealing? When are the blinds increasing? What's the current money situation?

There are too many factors that need to be considered and you need to think through some of these prior to even deciding what to do.

[ononimo]

[ QUOTE ]
I would most definitely not be pushing there as you are only called with hands you are behind/dominated by.

[/ QUOTE ]

i've come to believe this thinking is wrong as i've frequently had my AK-AJ pushes called by AT and worse, depending on their stack sizes, and he's got a fighting chance against most pocket pairs ...

if he raises to 3BB, he's pretty close to pot committed anyway and/or will definitely be all-in on his next hand. folding is clearly not a realistic option given the blinds.

i like the push.

[Lloyd]

Well, I'm sure it depends on the buy-in. In $100+ tournies I don't see many medium sized stacks calling with small Aces after a 12xBB push in MP. Sure, the big stacks might call and if there's a small stack in the blinds they might call. But on the whole they're going to fold A9 and below and usually AT. I could see in a small buy-in tourney getting called with worse Aces.