We might as well start talkig about it....Gavin's TT hand

SossMan · #1 07-12-2005, 11:05 AM

Gavin is sitting on 160k in chips and in control of the table. Par is probably somewhere around 40-50k at this point and blinds are either 400-800 or 500-1k w/ about a 100 ante (i'm not sure which level, but it doesn't make much difference w/ the stack sizes).

His opponent is in the CO w/ about 100k.

From what I can tell (and Gavin, please correct any info here) Gavin has been seeing flops and taking pots away from people on the flop and/or turn. However, he has been doing this mostly from MP/LP. His EP game is still relatively tight. CO is a thinking, good player.

Gavin picks up red TT from UTG. He makes it 3200. This has been the standard opening raise. Folded to CO who calls.

Flop is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

What's a good line for this hand at this point?

Gavin led out for ~6k and was raised to 15k (9k more).

His opponent has about 83k behind at this point. The pot is about 30k.

What is a good line from here in this hand?

durron597 · #2 07-12-2005, 11:15 AM

If Gavin really is running over the table, I don't see why he can't do what he can to keep the pot small. His opponent could easily have a hand like Ad Qx here, which he really doesn't want to be against.

With a large stack and a non-nut hand, I don't want to be committing most of my chips here against a solid player w/o a read specific to this hand. I think I fold to the raise.

Edit: please don't generalize this post to an every hand strategy. He might have the best hand, but he's either behind or barely ahead to pretty much his opponents entire range except for the Harrington 10%.

Pat Southern · #3 07-12-2005, 11:18 AM

I have 0 experience with this deep stack poker, but I'd guess that I either have the best hand or the best draw, so I'd raise to 40k and call a push?

durron597 · #4 07-12-2005, 11:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I have 0 experience with this deep stack poker, but I'd guess that I either have the best hand or the best draw, so I'd raise to 40k and call a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ew. If I raise to 40k here and get pushed over, I'm beaten. At worst my opponent has AdAx. This is the WSOP. My opponent is a solid player with a very large stack. He's not going to risk it all on a bluff.

SossMan · #5 07-12-2005, 11:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If Gavin really is running over the table, I don't see why he can't do what he can to keep the pot small. His opponent could easily have a hand like Ad Qx here, which he really doesn't want to be against.

With a large stack and a non-nut hand, I don't want to be committing most of my chips here against a solid player w/o a read specific to this hand. I think I fold to the raise.

Edit: please don't generalize this post to an every hand strategy. He might have the best hand, but he's either behind or barely ahead to pretty much his opponents entire range except for the Harrington 10%.

[/ QUOTE ]

the strange thing about this hand is that he's either a 65-35 dog or a 65-35 favorite (unless he's up against an overpair w/ a diamond or a made flush bigger than his..both pretty unlikely)

It's not really the classic way ahead way behind. It's more like decently ahead / decently behind.

fnord_too · #6 07-12-2005, 11:28 AM

Yuk! That is a brutal spot. I'm torn between calling and folding. I think folding is best since Gavin is in the best position to make mistakes on future streets. There is just nothing that can come on the turn that clears up the situation for him, and he certainly does not want to spend any more chips to find out where he is at.

Yeah, I muck that and hope the cameras got it and it gets aired.

Apathy · #7 07-12-2005, 11:45 AM

has anyone considering check raising the flop, or check-call, lead out the turn?

This appears a lot stronger for such a scary board against a thinking player that you can figure out where your at for a lot cheaper, which is paramount in my mind because you want to remain the chip leader of the table at the conclusion of this hand, even if you are beat.

Whitey · #8 07-12-2005, 11:51 AM

Why discount the overpair with a diamond here?

If Gavin has been constantly aggressive a thinking/good player may well slow play AA/KK pre flop,expecting Gavin to lead out on pretty much any flop.

Even if he doesn't have a diamond he's going to re-pop here every time with the overpair.

I think you could make a strong argument to fold here,best case, Gavins ahead and opponent has overcards with a diamond, but he could easily be behind to a set, overpair, or worst case, overpair with a diamond draw.

With the hero running over the table he could easily make the chips back he has put into this pot in the future without a hand.

KKsuited · #9 07-12-2005, 12:02 PM

I wouldn't want to tangle with the other big stack at the table with that flop and my hand. I'm folding and keeping my 150k to keep pushing the table around.

sam h · #10 07-12-2005, 12:08 PM

Hindsight is 20/20, but in my mind it is a fold without a read that the opponent is just playing sheriff with a mediocre holding. I think a set, baby flush, or JJ are the opponents most likely hands. While he could have two overcards with a diamond, many people are going to just call with that hand here, and Gavin's reraise may not get those hands to fold anyway since they are close to 50% shots and some players will be willing to gamble (not sure if this is the case with this guy).

I just don't see the rationale being gambling here on hero's part, if he was rolling and controlling the table. I don't think he was getting the best of a gamble against the villain's range of hands and, to make matters worse, with these table dynamics the chips he would pick up would not be as valuable as those he stood to lose.