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  #1  
Old 02-20-2005, 07:43 AM
critterdude critterdude is offline
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Default Evaluate this bet

Giants, Padres, or Dodgers win NL West at a little better than 1-10 odds with juice.

Do the Rockies and Dianondbacks win this division 10% of the time?
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  #2  
Old 02-20-2005, 08:58 AM
Shoe Shoe is offline
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Default Re: Evaluate this bet

-EV
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  #3  
Old 02-20-2005, 02:51 PM
tech tech is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
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Default Re: Evaluate this bet

[ QUOTE ]
-EV

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. I am sure that is the type of profound insight that the original poster was looking for. Can you provide us with some more pearls of wisdom?

To the original poster -- it is probably close. There might be a little value there, but the downside of having to have money tied up all season long is what makes it unattractive to me. Good luck. Hope it hits for you.
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  #4  
Old 02-20-2005, 02:58 PM
Oski Oski is offline
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Location: Los Angeles, California
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Default Re: Evaluate this bet

[ QUOTE ]
Giants, Padres, or Dodgers win NL West at a little better than 1-10 odds with juice.

Do the Rockies and Dianondbacks win this division 10% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would pass: Rocks and D-Backs will be 4 and 5 after the dust settles. For either one of them to win, they have to have A LOT of elements come together perfectly.

NOW, the problem is tying the money up. I have a credit account at the 'Nuckle. I believe I can get some value out of these bdts because I don't have to front the money.

A lot of value evaporates when you have to front the cash for 7 to 8 months. You can find many investments that have a greater chance of paying off at better than 10% during that time.

For example. Poker. You are a very good player, thus, your expectation would be over 10% for that time period.

I wouldn't make the bet if I were you.
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  #5  
Old 02-21-2005, 11:09 AM
critterdude critterdude is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 36
Default Re: Evaluate this bet

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
-EV

[/ QUOTE ]

To the original poster -- it is probably close. There might be a little value there, but the downside of having to have money tied up all season long is what makes it unattractive to me. Good luck. Hope it hits for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is at Trade Sports so I don't have to tie the money up for that length. Does this bet look more attractive now?
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  #6  
Old 02-21-2005, 12:18 PM
MarkL444 MarkL444 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: East Lansing, MI
Posts: 548
Default Re: Evaluate this bet

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
-EV

[/ QUOTE ]

To the original poster -- it is probably close. There might be a little value there, but the downside of having to have money tied up all season long is what makes it unattractive to me. Good luck. Hope it hits for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is at Trade Sports so I don't have to tie the money up for that length. Does this bet look more attractive now?

[/ QUOTE ]
can you explain to me what this means?
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  #7  
Old 02-21-2005, 12:41 PM
critterdude critterdude is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 36
Default Re: Evaluate this bet

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
-EV

[/ QUOTE ]

To the original poster -- it is probably close. There might be a little value there, but the downside of having to have money tied up all season long is what makes it unattractive to me. Good luck. Hope it hits for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is at Trade Sports so I don't have to tie the money up for that length. Does this bet look more attractive now?

[/ QUOTE ]
can you explain to me what this means?

[/ QUOTE ]

AT Trade Sports betting is done like the stock market where you buy a team at a price and can sell them whenever you want.

So I can buy the Padres, Dodgers, and Giants to win their division for under $90 combined. Winning contracts make $100 but as the value fluctuates I can can sell them anytime if I wish. As Colorado and the Diamondbacks fall out of contention my 3 stocks/wagers will go up.

Bottom line is 1-10 on this bet with the ability to turn a profit sooner.
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