oh my

[mike l.]

so i have AhQs on the button 40-80 commerce and two fishys limp i raise bb who is vietnamese dude who im thinking is not looking to spray calls. 4 of us see the flop for two bets each.

it's Tc8d6d. bb bets out, cutoff calls, i call.

the turn is a Qd. bb checks, cutoff checks, i bet, bb checkraises, cutoff folds, i fold.

[DcifrThs]

close call on the flop...10:1 for essentially a 4 outer a very large majority of the time. i think the vietnamese dude does not have a flush as hed likely bet into the raiser and get more bets than checkraise and be less likely to be called by the middle guy.

personally i think i fold on the flop given the draw-y board and texture. turn my ace or queen into a diamond and i may even raise...

-Barron

[schroedy]

I suppose a lot depends on your read.

Is this a Tommy/"way ahead or way behind" scenario? (Or perhaps time to act like Tommy with a "slightly ahead or way behind" scenario.)

When it's on you at the turn, you are sure you can get to showdown (if you want) for one bet. Opposite that are all the times a diamond or straight card ruins your hand, when VG would have dropped for a bet (assume fish is coming with a reasonable D anyway). Opposite that are all the times that VG will craftily checkraise with a lower pair, overcard and D draw . . . .

Two weeks ago, I would have bet for sure. Lately I have been experimenting with Tommy-ball (I am not saying Tommy votes check this turn, just that as it turns out a soft approach would have been better (cost the same, but got to showdown)), so I might have tried it just to experiment with how it works.

[schroedy]

I am still putting VG on a big hand -- straight or set or baby flush or 2 pair, but he wants to crush out drawing odds if fish holds a big D.

As I noted above, the other possible is some kind of semi-bluffer -- T or 8 with a big D overcard.

[anatta]

I don't like your opponent's play. His most likely hand is the nut flush, but he probably should read you as a player who is capable of getting away from top pair or overpair if he check-raises. If he has a lower flush (or any other big hand for that matter), obviously he risks a free card.

Anyhow, your fold is correct, his lead into the field usually means he either has a big hand or draw, his check-raise confirms he got there or was there to begin with.

Maybe we should re-read some Jim Brier play of overcards and less SSH since I think I like a fold on the flop, but I don't do it that much either.

[mike l.]

nice analysis. when we gonna drive to commerce together?

[anatta]

I am taking a week off after a nice stretch of 120 hours where I crushed the game for a total of $1200. Pretty sweet this poker.

I'll probably hit the Commerce this weekend then its off to Vegas for ten days.

[J.A.Sucker]

Hi Mike,

I think calling the flop is close, provided you don't do anything bad on the turn. The reason it's close is what kind of cards are you rooting for on the turn? The A isn't exactly the best card, since you'll be in trouble from 2-pair, and it'll get expensive, but I think you'll have to pay off. Then there's the likeliehood of the flush redraw, which makes things even more sticky.

The Q really was a good catch, though the diamond is a little sick. I think you have to pay off here. 97, J9 or the diamonds are fairly likely hands for the BB, but you can't lay it down, IMO. Folding on the flop is when you do it, not when you have top pair. No me gusta, senor.

[andyfox]

Clear fold for me on the flop. T-8-6 is a perfect blind/limpers' flop.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Let's see. The pot is middle sized and you showed aggression pre flop. A solid looking BB lead bets into two fish and you with a middle coordinated flop with two diamonds after you raised pre flop. There has already been a call in front of you by one of the fish. You have no diamond, no draw, and two overcards that when hit will often get you in trouble (Do I sound like Brier here?).

You need to fold on the flop and it isn't close. Sort of "getting there" on the turn and then getting check raised off the hand is pretty much what you deserved. BB non fish has to virtually know you can't have a flush given no flop raise and he is in control on this one.

~ Rick