A Hand With Andy Fox

[The Dude]

Here's a hand I played yersterday with Andy Fox and Jim Rivett at Commmerce.

9-18. I've raised 4 of the last 6 hands, won three of them, but only showed down one of them (I flopped top set w/ 99 and went to war with a poor sucker who rivered trips). CO in this hand is a "cold-call with any two" type, and the button is definately too loose, and perhaps a little on tilt too. Andy Fox, who is sitting directly to my left, has been living up to his reputation by folding every hand.

Preflop: 7-handed.
Typical loose EP limper, Jim Rivett folds, The Dude raises in MP w/ J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Andy Fox 3-bets, CO calls 3 cold, button calls 3 cold. Both blinds fold, EP limper calls.

Flop: (16.4 SBs) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 Players)</font>
Checked to The Dude who bets, Andy Fox raises, all fold back to The Dude who calls.

Turn: (10.2 BBs) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 Players)</font>
The Dude checks, Andy Fox bets, The Dude raises. Andy Fox calls.

River: (14.2 BBs) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 Players)</font>
The Dude bets, planning on calling a raise.

Comments?

[etizzle]

Looks good to me. I would consider playing this one fast on the flop though, as lots of turn cards will make you not want to checkraise it. (T, [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A, etc)

[Lawrence Ng]

The Dude will lose if raised on the river and should not call a river raise.

Lawrence.

[The Dude]

Maybe. My choices are check-call, or bet planning to call a raise. At the time, I liked betting better, but I'm not completely sure. There are also a couple of other lines I could have taken on this hand.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
I would consider playing this one fast on the flop though, as lots of turn cards will make you not want to checkraise it. (T, [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A, etc)


[/ QUOTE ]
Having less equity on the flop does not encourage me to play it faster.

[sthief09]

I don't get it... what's with the turn check-raise? are you that convinced you're ahead? are you trying to push him off QQ? also, I'd cap preflop. 5 handed against loose players and no cap? after he calls your turn check-raise, how could you possibly be ahead? I don't understand this hand at all

EDIT: I've thought about this some more and I think that your thinking was that given hsi flop play he'll play AK like this 100% of the time, so he's 50/50 to have a turn. the thing is that Andy might not bet. the advantage of a turn bet from Andy's perspective is that he can check behind on the river if he misses or bet if he hits. however, this exposes him to a check raise. also, he should be folding to a turn check-raise with AK IMO (though that statement I just made could be REALLY REALLY wrong). for one, he's not ahead, and two he could have 3 or no outs. so once he calls your turn check-raise, you're dead. also, I wouldn't even consider being raised on the river, since Andy is content in showing down his likely KK or QQ cheaply against your overrepresented (IMO) pair of jacks.

I think our difference in opinion probably lies in how we think Andy will play AK. you think (1) he'll bet the turn with it, and (2) he won't lay down to a turn check-raise. I'm in complete agreement that Andy will play AK how he did on the flop and obviously preflop.

Analysis of turn situation, if Andy has AK:

The Dude can have:
AA- 3 combos, Andy has 0 outs
KK- 3 combos, Andy has 3 outs
QQ- 6 combnos, Andy has 6 outs

now the question is how often is The Dude going to check-raise the turn with QQ or JJ. I think he 3-bets the flop with AA or KK. the turn check-raise here is an action killer. I think it's far to count JJ as half as probable as AA-QQ

JJ- 3 combos, Andy has 6 outs

another interesting scenario is when The Dude has A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. we can assume that Andy folds the river with AK unimproved, even though The Dude's check-raise is suspicious because it's unexpected and because it's too cliche with AA. A lot of people will check-raise with AA in this spot, and every decent player knows this, so every decent player will just 3-bet the flop to keep the other player playing. So, yeah, let's say Andy folds AK unimproved. Against AQ of spades, he always has 4 outs, which are the 2 aces and the 2 non-spade kings. Also 1/4 of the time, Andy's AK will include the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], so he has 4.25 outs vs. AQs

AQs- 1 combo, Andy has 4.25 outs

(3*3+6*6+3*6+4.25)/16 = 4.2 outs total

he's getting 13-1 if I remember correctly, so I'm wrong and Andy can/should call. and that goes along with betting the river, but I'm still very against calling a raise.

I still wonder whether Andy bets the turn with AK

[Michael J. Sykes]

Do you think Andy would three-bet with AQ (or worse) and two loose gamblers behind him? If so, would he raise the flop and bet the turn with an unimproved AQ? I would think Andy was very likely to have AA-QQ or AK. There are 18 combinations of AA-QQ and 16 combinations of AK. Based on this read, I do not like your turn check-raise or river plan. After betting the flop and getting raised, I would probably go into check-call mode.

-MJS

[chesspain]

I don't get the river bet. Do you think Andy three-bet PF with 99/AT? Or are you expecting Andy to call with A-high? Or do you somehow think that he's folding QQ?

I can't see how betting the river is +EV (especially if you plan on calling a raise).

[sthief09]

I don't think it matters either way really. He's probably not getting raised. AK probably won't call a bet or bet if checked to. the only difference I can see is that 99 will call but probably not bet. in general though, in spots like this, you're usually better off betting than check-calling, since more hands will call than bet. the only time checking is right is if you think you can pick off a bluff. even if the guy is tricky and will raise often, I think you have to bet.

[Michael J. Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
you're usually better off betting than check-calling, since more hands will call than bet. the only time checking is right is if you think you can pick off a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Other reasons to check would include when you believe: your opponent is unlikely to call with an inferior hand, and your opponent is unlikely to value-bet a slightly superior hand with which he would call your bet. I am not claiming that these factors justify checking in this particular instance.

-MJS