Secrets of Poker #2

Yerma · #1 12-01-2002, 06:26 PM

Hi, I have a question for you.

I am playing some micro no limit online. You know, the $50 buy-in tables? And I have $52.50 in front of me with Ah6h in big blind. So, five people plus the small blind call the $0.50 blind bet. I go all-in because I heard somewhere that you can go all-in with almost any two cards here. (Can someone explain that to me?) Also, I like to gamble. But was it the right thing to do?

ps. I got called by a stack that covered mine. He had 66. But I hit my Ace twice for spectacular gambling pay-off!

Ed Miller · #2 12-01-2002, 08:03 PM

I think going allin here is a horrible mistake. You are way overbetting the pot... and any hand that can call you here has you at a severe disadvantage. Your opponent that called you with 66 made an even bigger mistake, though, IMHO.

MSchmahl · #3 12-01-2002, 08:58 PM

Isn't 66 a huge favorite over A6s? If the 66 player knows Yerma is betting like this with Axs, shouldn't any pocket pair or big ace call?

Ed Miller · #4 12-01-2002, 09:05 PM

Yes... if 66 knows that Yerma has precisely A6s, then of course he should call. But even if you see someone wildly raising allin on weak hands, how can you not expect someone to have at least two overcards to your mini pocket pair? If Yerma does turn up with AA or another big pocket pair this time, then you have called off your whole stack at a huge disadvantage. This is a situation where you can expect to be either a small favorite (pocket pair vs. two overcards) or a huge underdog (pocket pair vs. bigger pocket pair). You can't call an allin raise here with 66.

#5 12-01-2002, 09:15 PM

I would have called with 66...

MSchmahl · #6 12-01-2002, 10:30 PM

A player who would raise all-in with Axs might also have an underpair. And larger pocket pairs seem a relatively small subset of the universe of hands that "wild all-in raiser" might have.

Let's assume for argument's sake that WAIR would make the same play with any pocket pair, any suited ace, and AJ/AQ/AK.
<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
22 -55 : 24 hands; 80% equity, win 19.2
66 : 1 hand ; 50% equity, win 0.5
77 -AA : 48 hands; 20% equity, win 9.6
A2s-A5s: 16 hands; 65% equity, win 10.4
A6s: 2 hands; 65% equity, win 1.3
A7s-AKs: 28 hands; 50% equity, win 14.0
AJo-AKo: 36 hands; 55% equity, win 19.8
Total 155 hands win 74.8
</pre><hr>
Which comes out to about 48%.

There were $3.00 in the pot before the WAIR went all-in for $52 from the BB, so you're risking $52 to win $107 ($51.60 equity), so I have to agree that a call is just on the border of not being correct -- assuming you know you'll be the only caller. The possibility that someone may overcall with a good hand pushes this easily into the "fold" category unless you are in the SB.

But I think 77 is good enough.

Of course if you increase or decrease the number of big cards or underpairs WAIR would play, this changes the result significantly.

Ed Miller · #7 12-01-2002, 10:42 PM

This of course assumes that you know exactly the set of hands that WAIR will raise with. And it also assumes, as you pointed out, that you will never be overcalled. In practice... I think if you call lots of allin preflop raises for many times the size of the blinds with 66... even if you perceive the raiser to often way over bet the pot on thin holdings... you will lose lots of money. I think that if you do it with 77 you will still lose lots of money.

2ndGoat · #8 12-05-2002, 09:02 PM

If before that hand, WAIR offered you a coin flip, even money wager, on his entire stack, would you take it? I would. Since he'll probably leak it all off before he goes, and I figure to get a piece, I'm not really losing as much as I could win... so I would think it's +EV. Now, whether 77 or whatever is coinflip is up for debate (everyone's operating with sound judgement, just different sets of hands, I guess) but if it was, I think I'd call with the 77.

Time to go donate my $3 to pokerstars and $30 to the field...

2ndGoat

glen · #9 12-06-2002, 05:50 AM

Yerma,

I think you're messing with us here. This is the second all-in overbet the pot twenty-five times with a garbage hand post. However, in case you're not, I would advise you to lower your raising standards a bit. since you said you like to gamble, why not gamble with worse hands? If you got a lot of pleasure winning with A6 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] , why not win with hands like 46o, 25s, and K2. Imagine the faces of your opponents at their computer screens then!. . .

Ed Miller · #10 12-06-2002, 07:43 PM

Huh? How is an even money wager on a coin flip ever +EV?

And my whole point in all this is that calling with 66 isn't an even money wager on a coin flip... it's an even money wager with you taking slightly the best of it most of the time, but overwhelmingly the worst of it at other times.