Call, Raise, or Fold the flop?

BugsBunny · #1 01-07-2005, 07:40 PM

I thought I liked the way I played this but now due to some other feedback I've gotten I'm not so sure.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, MP calls, CO folds, Hero ????

WarmonkEd · #2 01-07-2005, 08:00 PM

hmm, this is tough. Only 3 solid outs, plus 7 maybes. The problem is when you hit any of them on the turn, an opponent could still draw a winner on the river.

I'm gonna say call/raise and try for free card/fold.

If it's an aggressive table then I'd probably forget about raising.

bunky9590 · #3 01-07-2005, 08:08 PM

I dont mind a raise here, hope it buys you a freebie for the river card, unless you hit that red 7. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

I think your T outs are good, 9's not so good, runner runner flush draw turns this into a raise for me.

marand · #4 01-07-2005, 10:13 PM

I would raise it for a free card against passive opponents.
Against aggressive opponents I rather just call; I don't want it 3-bet on the flop and bet on the turn.

Trix · #5 01-07-2005, 10:45 PM

Call, it sucks to get 3bet and you will have perfect position to make the right play on the turn if he bets again on a T/9. You also have perfect position to maximize on a 7.

BugsBunny · #6 01-08-2005, 01:19 AM

Position was ultimately why I decided to just call. If I got my card I may get someone betting into me again on the turn. Otherwise I'd be facing 'check to the raiser' syndrome. A raise was also unlikley to fold any overcards (except, possibly, in the SB. Who might be folding anyways. A raise won't protect my hand, won't fold anyone, and will just jack the pot for legitimate flush draws.

So I called. Although there have been enough responses saying to raise (including the responses that made me reconsider before posting here) that I think that that's also viable. I suspect that they're actually rather close to each other. But I still think I'm happy with the way I played it. I'm definitely happy with the result.

Here's the rest of the hand:

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, MP calls, CO folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG folds, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB folds, MP calls.

River: (12.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets, MP calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB
Main Pot: 14.50 BB, between MP and Hero. > Pot won by Hero (14.50 BB).

Results:
MP has 7s 7h (three of a kind, sevens).
Hero has 9c Tc (flush, ten high).
Outcome: Hero wins 14.50 BB.

helpmeout · #7 01-08-2005, 02:07 AM

I think calling is better because:

1) If you hit your gutshot on the turn you can raise from the button collecting more bets than having everyone check to you.

2) You can semibluff raise if a club falls on the turn.

Rostioff · #8 01-08-2005, 02:31 AM

I believe many of you are over-valuing this hand. Let's break it down; at the time our hero has to act there are 9 bets in the pot, so he's getting 9:1 on a call.

All outs in this hand MUST be seriously devalued because of the spade draw on the flop. Even if a non spade 7 comes on the turn (giving the nuts), a player with a flush draw will redraw the river about 20% of the time. The same goes for improving to top pair with a non spade (not to meantion the potential for that top pair to be outkicked, beat by two pair, a straight or a set; all real possibilities with this many players in the hand). Revisiting the flush draw situation, if a T, 9, 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes on the turn, even if it doesn't give an opponent a flush, anyone with a spade in their hand now has a draw at a flush.

With these thoughts in mind, let's count outs...All non spade sevens are clean (3 outs), the backdoor flush draw is not to the nuts and shouldn't be valued highly (.75 outs), and there are 4 non spade top pair outs, but don't get excited yet there. We already said they are weak outs since many hands will have you beat even if you do make that pair, so let's count them as (1 out). So...4.75 outs with 47 unseen cards gives you roughly about 8.9:1. That's just enough to make a call, but keep in mind the SB might still be raising. This is a hand that you will often be paying off your opponents rather than collecting bets on later streets. All these factors make a fold VERY appealing.

Now raising; that's the worst option available. A call is marginal to begin with, but there aren't many passive 5/10 short games. Raising from last position will look very much like a flush draw causing many players to three bet you or at minimum lead into you on the turn. Assuming everyone calls your raise and the sb folds you'll be getting 6:1 on your money (6 small bets preflop + 3 players * 2 bets / your 2 bets = 6). Those odds don't look attractive coupled with a potential three bet and a very dubious free card on the turn.

Congrats on the lucky catch and good luck in future hands.

helpmeout · #9 01-08-2005, 02:59 AM

You also have 2 overcards.

Rostioff · #10 01-08-2005, 03:24 AM

I discussed them and valued them in the middle of my post...