Overpair, but raised on flop en turn: fold?

#1 12-23-2005, 10:41 AM

Button is a tight player (22% of the flops seen over 80 hands) and also good aggressive (7,2% preflop raise and agressionfactor of 3.0).

Should I have gone to showdown with this hand, or not?

I was thinking like this:

Flop: He raised me on the flop, so perhaps TPTK or something like that.

Turn: He did not cap it, so perhaps scared by the 3-bet from me if he did indeed had TPTK. He raised me again, so here i'm almost sure that i'm beat. I did however call hoping that the board would pair (perhaps counterfeiting a twopair from him) or to catch a queen.

River: I did not improve, but couldn't let it go...

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO folds, Button raises, UTG calls, MP1 folds, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, Button raises, UTG folds, Hero calls.

River: (14.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB

car ramrod · #2 12-23-2005, 10:47 AM

He appears to be very agg. I think you played it fine.
I am going to showdown with this guy.

jmn32 · #3 12-23-2005, 10:51 AM

I play it exactly the same. With that kind of aggression factor, I think this is top pair often enough.

#4 12-23-2005, 10:52 AM

I'm with car ramrod, he is very aggro. This was the best way to play it.

HouseCalls · #5 12-23-2005, 11:13 AM

*grunch*
Preflop/Flop - ok
Turn - I see three possibilities against a good player in this spot.
1. You are behind
2. You are ahead with your overpair but he thinks he's ahead
3. You are ahead, he knows you are ahead and he is raising on the turn hoping for a free showdown.

There are basically 2 hands that beat you that he would just call with preflop - JJ and 88; with KK or AA I would expect a preflop raise. Two pair that beats you here is unlikely for a solid player with his preflop play. There are many more ways he could have a hand which he thinks is good AJ, KJ, QJ. This would explain not capping the flop and then when you check on the turn he bets thinking he is ahead.
All in all against a TAG I'd call down from the flop just like you did.

#6 12-23-2005, 11:22 AM

Small detail; I don't check the turn, I bet and he raises me. I don't think that he could do that with KJ and QJ and even AJ is questionable for me.

Fantam · #7 12-23-2005, 11:27 AM

I like the way you played this hand.

If you lost to a set, so be it. That happens sometimes, but I think that you were correct to go to showdown.

HouseCalls · #8 12-23-2005, 11:28 AM

Sorry - misread that; still think its worth a calldown here.

Agthorr · #9 12-23-2005, 03:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think that he could do that with KJ and QJ and even AJ is questionable for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's do you guess are his reads on you and UTG?

Let's say he thinks there's a 30% chance he has the best hand (with AJ, KJ, or QJ) and he figures that the other 70% of the time you have AA, KK, or QQ. If he figures there's a 30% chance that you'll fold a better hand if he check-raises the turn, he should do it. It's a raise for value when he's ahead, and he gains fold equity when he's behind.

Mathematically, he's paying 2 big bets (-2), 30% of the time when he's ahead he's gaining an extra big bet from you (+1*0.3) and the 70% of the time he's behind, there's a 30% chance you'll fold and gets the whole pot of around 11.25 BB (+11.25*0.7*0.3). -2 + 1*0.3 + 11.25*0.7*0.3 > 0, so this is +EV for him.

The play makes even more sense if he has two hearts, because then in those cases where you're ahead and won't fold, he may still outdraw you.

The key questions are:

<ul type="square">[*]How often does he think he's ahead? (if he has TPGK)[*]Does he think there's any chance you'll fold a better hand? (if he has TPGK)[*] What other hands could he possibly have?[/list]I think he would have reraised KK or AA preflop. I don't think he's cold-call your pre-flop raise with anything that makes two-pair. So, I'd say he has AJs, QJs, JJ, or possibly KJs. I think JJ caps the flop, although if he's very tricky he might let you put in the last bet on the flop so that he can check-raise the turn without worrying as much about you checking behind.

Assuming it'll cost you two more big bets to call down, I think you're definitly ahead the 1 time in 7 that you need to call. (though this would not be true if villian's agression factor was 0.8 or something like that)

Also, if you consistently fold in a situation like this, villian will start playing more aggresively against you because he knows he can frequently steal the pot from you.

GTSamIAm · #10 12-23-2005, 05:30 PM

With the number of loose players in the hand, don't you think drawing hands are plausible? I could see him squeaking in preflop with T9 of hearts. But then again, he wouldn't raise you on the flop if he had that.